Found September 06, 2009 on Another Cubs Blog:
PLAYERS: Alfonso Soriano
TEAMS: Chicago Cubs

Chicago_cubs_alfonso_644f
I wish I could take as good a look at Soriano as shawn did not long ago, but I don’t have the database to do such a thing. I’m also more interested in how he performed in April compared to the rest of the season. Soriano got off to a really good start this year. Through the first 19 games of the season Soriano was putting up MVP-caliber numbers. After the Cubs game on April 28th, Soriano was hitting .313/.396/.650. He had 7 home runs and 3 stolen bases in 5 attempts. Soriano was part of why the Cubs were able to get off to a solid start this season. Only Soriano, Ramirez and Fukudome did anything offensively when the season began. A few of us around here thought Soriano was going to put up MVP type numbers in 2009 and we looked like ******* geniuses on April 28th. Actually, we just looked lucky. Since that game on the 28th, Soriano has only managed to hit .227/.283/.378. That includes the month of July in which he was actually better than he was in April. I don’t mean to disrespectful to anyone, but it was as clear as could be that Soriano was not healthy after his fast April start. You could see him hobbling on the bases and in the field. Sometimes it looked bad enough that I thought his leg was actually going to explode. The man was clearly in pain and played through it because he felt he need to with others injured and underpforming. Mercurial Outfielder pointed out recently that Soriano is tougher than you. That is the truth. Lou Piniella gave him props for what he did and while I think it would have been best for the team to go on the DL, these are athletes who want to win and play well more than any fan wants. It was plainly obvious Soriano was injured. Honestly, nothing could have been more obvious. There were even leaked reports that he injured his knee in April. I don’t think anybody even needed that or the admission of Soriano and the Cubs that he was hurting to know that he was. It was clear as day. While Soriano was actually better in July, it’s largely because of his BABIP. It was .393. In April it was .305. He wasn’t particularly lucky that month and was putting up some very impressive numbers. It then all went to **** with the exception of a July that was aided by nearly 40% of every batted ball off his bat in for a hit. It was hard to pay attention to that though. We all thought he fine, but he wasn’t. His actual batting line in July was .345/.409/.583, but if you adjust that to around a .305 BABIP (same as April) it’s about .285/.350/.525. That’s still an Alfonso Soriano type batting line, but it gives you an idea how much he was helped out by an unusually high BABIP. Soriano’s overall GB% is up to 33% (28% in 2008). It’s been at the expense of his line drive rate. his FB% has remained the same. Soriano’s GB% in April was 28% (same as last year). The increase in groundballs seems to have coincided with his injury. The decline in LD% also went down at that time while the FB% pretty much remained the same. Soriano’s plate discipline has remained close to the same since April, but the first pitch strike percentage has gone way up. And why not? If the guy can’t hit, why pitch him out of the zone? here’s what we know: Soriano was off to a really good start in April, got hurt, and has with the exception of a few weeks in July been an awful baseball player. I might be able to believe that this was just a decline had it happened gradually, but this happened overnight. Soriano has played injured almost the entire season and he’s been terrible because of that. the projections for Soriano next year will be way down compared to this season, but assuming he heals completely I’m betting he beats all of the projections.
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