Originally posted on The Nats Blog old  |  Last updated 3/3/13
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projection engine has predicted the Washington Nationals to repeat as National League East Division Champions. Here is their overall projection of the division: Overall, Baseball Prospectus projects that the Nationals will have the third best record in the National League in 2013 and the sixth best record in baseball. That projection would make them the worst division winner in the game, but they would still finish with a better record than any Wild Card winner.   It appears that BP’s computer seems to believe that Washington may have trouble scoring runs this season. They projected Washington to score 707 times in 2013, which would rank them 18th in the league. In 2012 they actually finished 10th. It looks like this is the biggest dig against them as it has them ranking pretty highly with 642 runs allowed.  Part of this projected offensive decline is likely a belief that Adam LaRoche and Ian Desmond will return to their norm, as well as the loss of Mike Morse’s power. It probably doesn’t accurately account for Bryce Harper’s likely improvement, or a healthy Ryan Zimmerman, and Jayson Werth, however. It’s important to remember that Projections usually trend toward the conservative side, so young teams like Washington tend to get projected relatively lower than they actually finish.  To me what’s really interesting here is how closely they rank the Atlanta Braves, the New York Mets, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Personally I think the Phillies are due for a bit of a comeback this season, and I have no reason to believe the Braves will suddenly lose 12 games less than they did last year.  Personally, if I were to project this season by just eyeballing it, it would likely have the Nationals winning the division with 90+ wins, with the Braves and Phillies battling for the Wild Card with 85+ wins. 
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Best and worst from NBA All-Star Saturday night

WATCH: Klay Thompson can't go home unless he beats Steph Curry in 3-Point contest

Star players are hurting Houston Rockets

Emmitt Smith: Adrian Peterson only current player who could break rushing record

Coach K gets buzzer-beater win over Virginia for his birthday

Baylor approves new measures to deal with sexual assault

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Joe Mauer: Concussions blurred vision, affected hitting

LeBron James says Kevin Love-Celtics trade rumor is false

Michael Jordan gifts Kobe Bryant full set of Air Jordans

Bethune-Cookman football player killed at party

Former UFC heavyweight Kevin Randleman dead at 44

WATCH: Chelsea scores three goals in less than 20 minutes

LaVine, Gordon put on best NBA dunk contest in years

WATCH: Thompson beats teammate Curry in 3-point contest

NFL teams, players hand out awesome Valentines

Earl Campbell ‘disappointed’ in Johnny Manziel, wants to help

Big man Karl-Anthony Towns wins NBA skills challenge

MLB commish: Cubs will host All-Star Game in near future

WATCH: Memphis forward recreates Vince Carter's elbow dunk in game

Bruins forward is goal scoring machine after suspension

Michael Jordan gives Kobe Bryant complete set of Air Jordans

Drake has Kentucky edition of custom ‘OVO’ Air Jordan 8s

QUIZ: Name every NBA All-Star Game MVP

Watch rare footage of Stephen Curry from 2001-02 emerges

Check out this custom camouflage Oregon helmet

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Ranking the ten best free agent pitcher signings

Who had the best NBA All-Star Game of the last 40 years?

The winners and losers of the 2016 MLB offseason

On Kobe Bryant and taking greatness for granted

Bucks need to choose between wins, development

Fantasy booking WrestleMania 32

Unrestricted free agents each team must consider re-signing

QUIZ: Name the winners of the NBA Slam Dunk Contest

Thank you Daniel Bryan

The timeless greatness of Jaromir Jagr

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker