Originally posted on The Nats Blog old  |  Last updated 2/27/13
  Ben Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus penned an article yesterday outlining 10 players that their proprietary projection system, PECOTA, predicted would decline in 2013. Two Washington Nationals, Gio Gonzalez and Adam LaRoche, were included in the list.  Here’s what they had to say about each:  LaRoche -  “LaRoche's lifetime stats paint a perfect picture of a league-average first baseman. He's been better than that in some seasons, including his stellar 2012, but career years at age 32 are rarely repeated. LaRoche's clubhouse leadership might make him more valuable to the Nationals, but not to your fantasy team.” Gonzalez -  “Gonzalez continued to make strides in 2012, but as much as his breakout was supported by positive indicators like a fifth straight season with a lower walk rate than the one before, it was also aided by balls in play bouncing his way. Gio's HR/FB rate was the lowest of any qualified pitcher's, and his BABIP was 12th-lowest. There's no reason why he can't continue to pitch at a high level, but if PECOTA's projection proves accurate, he won't be contending for another Cy Young Award this season.” While it’s disappointing to see two of the Nats key cogs on this list, it’s not entirely surprising. LaRoche had a career year in 2013 at the age of 32, while finishing in the top 25 in MVP voting, earning a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger award all for the first time in his career. LaRoche has always been labeled with the tag of “Good not Great” and it’s not surprising that a computer would project his return to the norm.  Gonzalez also had a career year last year but his case is obviously a little different. Gio is just 26, so some, including myself, would argue that his stellar 21 win, 2.89 ERA performance of 2012 was a result of him entering his prime years of production. I doubt that  BP would disagree with that assessment either, but the computer looks at indicating factors such as stats that are attributed to “luck” and they believe that Gio simply got lucky last year.  Only time will tell with either of these players, but it is important to note that  of the other eight players on the list, five were All-Stars and one (Mike Trout) was an MVP candidate. To me this asserts that this list was much more of a reasonable and conservative algorithm making predictions that numbers would return to earth rather than a bid of no-confidence.  For LaRoche, PECOTA predicts: 251/.320/.446 (1.5 WARP) For Gonzalez, PECOTA predicts: 3.67 ERA, 8.6 K/9 (2.4WARP) What do you expect from these two?
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Ex-NFL player: Cam Newton is not well-liked by teammates

Report: Cavaliers will not land Paul George or Jimmy Butler

Who are the Golden Knights? A look at their expansion draft picks

Report: Spurs have 'strong interest' in Derrick Rose

Dwight Howard’s sister slams Hawks after surprise trade

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Roger Goodell makes it through the Boston airport

Knicks reportedly asking for too much in Porzingis trade

Report: Free agents view signing with Knicks as ‘absolute last resort’

Golden Knights owner screws up expansion draft order, announces a selection from the wrong team

Steve Kerr: Warriors will ‘get greedy,’ be even better next season

Report: Pacers in no rush to complete Paul George trade

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Gary Payton Award for best trash talk of the year

It’s quarterback contract silly season, starting with Derek Carr

Feeding your roundball addiction through the summer months

2017 NBA Mock Draft

Box Score 6/22: Emotion-filled Knight for Pens fans, Preds fans... and Knicks fans

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

The 'Golden Knights will begin with a Fleury of activity' quiz

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Ricky Davis Award for most irrationally confident shooter

It's time for Satchel Paige Day in Major League Baseball

Which vets the Vegas Golden Knights should build around

Box Score 6/21: Summer of NBA trades heats up

For Giants, failure to act could be the gravest error in a season full of them

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Gary Payton Award for best trash talk of the year

It’s quarterback contract silly season, starting with Derek Carr

The 'Golden Knights will begin with a Fleury of activity' quiz

The 10 best sports docs available for streaming

Feeding your roundball addiction through the summer months

2016-17 NBA Awards: The Ricky Davis Award for most irrationally confident shooter

It's time for Satchel Paige Day in MLB

Which vets the Vegas Golden Knights should build around

The Giants' failures for 2017 are complete, time to think of the future

Scouting the 2017 NBA Draft

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker