Originally posted on Fangraphs  |  Last updated 4/27/13
Table of Contents Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes. 1. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game) 2. Barely Helpful Footage: Ervin Santana’s Slider 3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game) Cleveland at Kansas City | 19:10 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game*** Dayton Moore’s somewhat mysterious confidence in Ervin Santana has been justified thus far, as the right-hander has posted an 86 xFIP- and 0.5 WAR and 0.9 RA/9 WAR (that is, WAR based not on FIP but on runs allowed) through four starts. Santana’s swinging-strike rate has been about two percentage points above his career average so far — and much of that seems due to his slider. Always his best pitch by pitch-type value, Santana’s slider has been even better so far, worth about 3.5 runs above league average for every hundred thrown. He’s also throwing it 40% of the time, which is rather often, actually. Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Cleveland Radio Los Angeles AL at Seattle | 21:10 ET It’s reasonable to say that tonight’s starter Felix Hernandez is a pleasure — both for his ability to prevent runs and also for his method of so doing. Anyone choosing to watch this game must deal with two Impediments to Joy, however: both the Mariners center-field camera (which is less than ideal for watching Hernandez) and the Mariners offense (which is a cauldron of disappointment). Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Seattle Radio, Perhaps Barely Helpful Footage: Ervin Santana’s Slider Here’s a barely helpful GIF of Ervin Santana’s very effective slider, from his most recent start, against Boston: Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again on Monday, April 29. Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish). Games are listed in Eastern Time, and presented as they appear at Pinnacle — which appears to be in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play. Game Teams Starters IP xFIP- WAR —– Line Win% 13:05 Philadelphia Phillies Jonathan Pettibone 5.1 54 -0.1 | 2.29 42.8% ET New York Mets Shaun Marcum N/A N/A N/A | 1.71 57.2% – – – – – – | – – 13:05 Cincinnati Reds Mike Leake 26.0 107 0.1 | 1.95 50.2% ET Washington Nationals Dan Haren 18.1 129 -0.2 | 1.97 49.8% – – – – – – | – – 16:15 Pittsburgh Pirates A.J. Burnett 29.0 67 0.7 | 2.07 47.4% ET St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook 21.2 139 0.1 | 1.86 52.6% – – – – – – | – – 19:10 Chicago Cubs Travis Wood 26.0 117 0.5 | 1.87 52.4% ET Miami Marlins Alex Sanabia 23.0 153 -0.3 | 2.06 47.6% – – – – – – | – – 20:10 Colorado Rockies Jeff Francis 16.0 113 0.1 | 2.47 39.7% ET Arizona Diamondbacks Wade Miley 26.0 89 0.7 | 1.63 60.3% – – – – – – | – – 20:40 San Francisco Giants Barry Zito 23.2 116 0.2 | 1.89 52.0% ET San Diego Padres Eric Stults 23.0 100 0.2 | 2.04 48.0% – – – – – – | – – 21:10 Milwaukee Brewers Wily Peralta 22.2 107 -0.1 | 2.20 44.6% ET Los Angeles Dodgers Stephen Fife 4.2 72 0.0 | 1.77 55.4% – – – – – – | – – 16:05 Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman 20.2 115 0.1 | 2.34 41.9% ET Oakland Athletics A.J. Griffin 24.0 118 0.2 | 1.69 58.1% – – – – – – | – – 16:05 Toronto Blue Jays J.A. Happ 22.0 120 0.4 | 2.46 39.9% ET New York Yankees CC Sabathia 35.0 92 0.6 | 1.63 60.1% – – – – – – | – – 16:10 Texas Rangers Derek Holland 27.2 91 0.8 | 1.71 57.4% ET Minnesota Twins Pedro Hernandez 10.1 125 -0.1 | 2.30 42.6% – – – – – – | – – 19:10 Houston Astros Brad Peacock 18.0 130 -0.3 | 3.40 28.9% ET Boston Red Sox Felix Doubront 16.2 80 0.4 | 1.38 71.1% – – – – – – | – – 19:10 Tampa Bay Rays Matt Moore 26.0 92 0.5 | 1.86 52.6% ET Chicago White Sox Gavin Floyd 21.2 80 0.3 | 2.07 47.4% – – – – – – | – – 19:10 Cleveland Indians Scott Kazmir 3.1 156 -0.2 | 2.44 40.2% ET Kansas City Royals Ervin Santana 29.0 86 0.5 | 1.64 59.8% – – – – – – | – – 21:10 LAA Angels Joe Blanton 20.2 126 -0.4 | 2.45 40.1% ET Seattle Mariners Felix Hernandez 34.2 68 1.1 | 1.64 59.9% – – – – – – | – – 13:05 Atlanta Braves Kris Medlen 25.0 110 0.4 | 1.89 52.0% ET Detroit Tigers Rick Porcello 13.0 121 -0.2 | 2.04 48.0%
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