Originally written on Chop-N-Change  |  Last updated 11/18/14
Picimg_mlb_apr_19_e572

To say that last season was a roller coaster for Dan Uggla would be a compliment to any roller coaster. After a disastrous start that saw him hitting .170 at the beginning of June and under .200 until July 27th, Uggla went on a 33-game hitting streak that saw his average climb to .237. The awful start coined the term #Struggla, and he was a punchline until the hitting streak really got under way. But now that the season is over and another one nears dawn, we have to start wondering about next year.

Before we take a look forward, it’s kind of fun to look back at what he’s done.


Season

BB%

K%

BABiP

fWAR

2006

7.0

18.0

.309

4.5

2007

9.3

22.9

.279

2.7

2008

12.4

27.6

.320

4.6

2009

13.8

22.5

.274

2.7

2010

11.6

22.1

.330

4.9

2011

9.2

23.2

.253

2.5

Career

10.5

22.7

.294

22.0/3.7


As you can see, Uggla’s entire career has been a roller coaster. Jacob Peterson (aka @junkstats; follow him if you don’t already) was the first to point out the BABiP fluctuations to me. His career BABiP is .294, but none of his seasons are particularly close to that mark. When you then look at his fWAR, it’s no surprise that it fluctuates wildly as well as his average is 3.7, but none of his seasons are within a win of that. Based on this, it looks like Uggla is headed for a nice 4-5 win season.

We, of course, can’t just assume that. Adam LaRoche had those ridiculously good second halves … until he didn’t in 2010. Bouncing back-and-forth like that is mainly just a statistical anomaly - someone has to do it - and we just happen to be witnesses. If you don’t believe me, maybe you’ll believe statisticians whose job it is to do this sort of thing. Bill James and RotoChamp all have Uggla playing to his career averages, and the FANS come to the same conclusion - Uggla should be worth about 3.5 wins this next season. We certainly don’t “know” that, but that’s the best prediction we can give.

The next question we have to ask is if Uggla showed signs of decline. When a player goes up-and-down like he has, it’s harder to see when he declines. So we need to look at some peripheral stats to see what’s going on and if the .253 BABiP is really to blame. First thing’s first, Uggla didn’t strike out more than usual. While the BB rate dropped (probably due to being #aggressive), I expect the reason behind that - Larry Parrish - is gone. The next thing we do is look at batted ball statistics. Before we get too into it, batted ball statistics can fluctuate because it can be difficult to tell between a line drive and a fly ball, etc. When you look at those, everything looks pretty normal except for a massive spike in pop flies, but the question becomes what caused it. Was it a loss of bat speed? Well, he still hit usual array of home runs and didn’t seem to sell-out and strike out for the power. Was it something in his swing mechanics that prohibited him from making the same contact? Perhaps. I remember a lot of backside collapses, which would cause that sort of thing, but I can’t compare him to past seasons. Ultimately, the answer is no. I don’t think he’s declining, at least rapidly.

Uggla will turn 32 during Spring Training, and he’s beginning to reach the point at which we ask questions about collapses. Additionally, the scrutiny over Uggla’s extension was over a possible quick decline. But let’s remember a few things. 32 isn’t that old. It’s just beyond his theoretical prime. And while the worries over the extension were about a decline, the worry wasn’t really about 2012. I realize that the slow start to 2011 caused some additional concerns and that his hitting streak didn’t make up for that, but we have to realize that, as odd as the it was, his season was one that was bound to happen at some point to someone. It’s certainly an interesting story, but let’s not read too much into it.

GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Marshawn Lynch on final SB play: 'I was expecting the ball'

Report: Rangers acquire Keith Yandle from Coyotes

Report: Bucs to keep Vincent Jackson under current contract

Twins to limit players' smartphone use on game days

Shane Battier: Carmelo Anthony is not that tough to guard

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Ronda Rousey would be 'happy' to fight Cat Zingano again

Markieff Morris calls out Suns fans after loss

Cowboys to let DeMarco Murray test free agency?

Brock Lesnar attends UFC 184, keeps MMA rumors alive

Dick Vitale will not call Duke-UNC rematch either

PHOTO: Auburn coaches, players wear ribbons for Mason

WATCH: James Harden kicks LeBron in the groin

Jim Harbaugh tells Madonna he respects her toughness

Are the Oakland Raiders finally trending up?

Durant blasts Instagram hater for Westbrook comment

Three potential big signings the Steelers could make

Kevin Garnett buys 1,000 tickets for Timberwolves fans

Michigan fan has incredible Charles Woodson tattoo

WATCH: NIU C brings down basket on dunk

McCown plans to embrace mentoring role with Manziel

Chris Sale out three weeks with foot injury

NHL analyst calls out media over Blackhawks report

Alabama recruits aim to bring the dynasty back

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

James Harden kicks LeBron in groin

Lynch: 'I was expecting the ball'

Report: Rangers get Yandle from Coyotes

Harbaugh respects Madonna's grit

Twins to limit game day cell phone use

Kevin Durant blasts hater on Instagram

KG buys 1,000 tickets for T-Wolves fans

Markieff Morris calls out Suns fans

Cowboys letting Murray test market?

Brock Lesnar attends UFC 184

Rousey beats Zingano in 14 seconds

Anthony Mason: The most 'New York' of the 90's Knicks

Today's Best Stuff
For Bloggers

Join the Yardbarker Network for more promotion, traffic, and money.

Company Info
Help
What is Yardbarker?

Yardbarker is the largest network of sports blogs and pro athlete blogs on the web. This site is the hub of the Yardbarker Network, where our editors and algorithms curate the best sports content from our network and beyond.