Implosion Needed

It's now been a month since the Padres hot start ended. Reality is setting in and setting in fast. At 13-22 (.371 Win %), the Padres are tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for worst record in baseball. Their 131 runs scored are second fewest, Arizona has 129. Their team ERA is 14th of 16th in the National League, aided by the most pitcher friendly park in the majors. This really isn't news. The Padres entered the season as one of the least talented rosters. GM Kevin Towers was quoted by ESPN's Jayson Stark as saying, "With a couple of weeks to go, my wife asked me if it was going to be tough to get down to 25," Towers said. "I said, 'Down to 25? I'm trying to get up to 25.'" The baseball statistics aren't the most frightening numbers about the 2009 San Diego Padres. Those would be the attendance figures. The current average attendance for home games this year is currently 25,904. However, this number has been dropping with every series. The last home stand's attendance (Mon-Thurs, May 4-7) was: 14,717; 13,646; 15,062; 18,921. The Friars begin a hom estand today with a weekend series against Cincinnati. Then its 3 games with the Giants (Tues-Thurs) and 3 with the Cubs next weekend. The Cubs series, if Chicago comes in hot, may help. As the losses roll in and attendance dropping, so does the bad luck. Luis Rodriguez is headed to the DL. Rodriguez ranks 3rd for the Padres in VORP (Value over Replacement Player) by Baseball Prospectus. VORP is basically the how many more runs a player is worth to his team than any minor league replacement player. Notable Padres VORP (of 23): 1. Adrian Gonzalez +17.2 2. Scott Hairston +13.2 3. Luis Rodriguez +4.6 22. Kevin Kouzmanoff -6.5 23. Brian Giles -12.6 Yes, that is the same Brian Giles who's $9 million salary is 20.58% of the team's total payroll. This is the same player that is not missing any playing time either, having sat only once this year. Giles is currently batting .169 (down from a career .292). He is walking once every 9.3 ABs (down from a career rate of 1:5.4). He is also slugging .231 (down from a career .505). The other major offender in the lineup, Kevin Kouzmanoff, may or may not also be slowing the growth of Chase Headley. Headley, a minor league 3rd baseman (who's considered better defensively than Kouzmanoff), switched to left field upon joining the Padres last year. Headley's career line sits at .263/.331/.411 in 467 at bats. This is down from a minor league career mark of .301/.395/.500 in 1411 at bats. The additional pressure of learning a new defensive position might not be hurting his batting, but it certainly can't help. Remember, he turned 25 years old on May 9 and is still adjusting to major league talent. Anything that can relieve some pressure (i.e. return to natural position) couldn't be a bad thing. The sad thing in all this, is the careers of Adrian Gonzalez and Jake Peavy. Gonzalez continues to develop into the player who he was projected to become, taken first overall in the 2000 draft. His contract extends through 2010, and it is questionable whether the Padres will be able to retain him. While he is a San Diego native, his agent has openly questioned the Padres ability to afford Gonzalez's salary (as they have openly tried to move Peavy's $11 million) and their ability to put a winning product around him. As much as I'm sure he loves to play for his hometown team, that novelty can wear off quickly with 100 loss seasons. Peavy's ERA is a little high, but his K:BB and K/9 number suggest he is fine. I take player's psyche into account, and Peavy seems to be an emotional guy who may struggle at times thinking he has to do it all for a bad team. While these players are a thrill to watch (especially Gonzalez), they are the only real value that the Padres have in the organization. There is very little help on the horizon (in the minors) and the Padres look like an organization doomed to spend the next few years in the cellar. With a new ownership group in place, I suppose it is still possible to build around these two young players. But to me it seems the best long-term solution, as painful as it might be, would be to get quantity for their quality. Attendance is already an issue, and the Padres best bet is to remove the band-aid now, completely bottom out the major league roster (and as much salary as possible), and reinvest in the minor league system, signing draft picks and foreign development.