Originally posted on isportsweb.com  |  Last updated 1/29/12

Roy Halladay was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies for the drop-and-drive hurler with a major league pedigree. Toronto was rumored to have offered Kyle Drabek for Matt Garza. There was no forceful denial from Canada. The Cubs were not interested? They’re giving up on him already? They want to move him before he loses more value? Typical manufactured baloney slices–aka BS?  (Phillies page photo:  Drabek, Travis d’Arnaud and Brett Wallace @ Phillies | isportsweb.)

Tal's Handy Caps:

 

Diamond Appraisal Supplement:

In my last article I wrote that $24.25M–AAV is $21.33M–would be available after Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Polly Polanco finish this campaign. There are 5 others: Jose Contreras, Jim Thome, Ty Wigginton, Brian Schneider and Dontrelle Willis. In 2013, John Mayberry Jr. will slide over to center, and Dom Brown will patrol left after a summer of AAA preparation. Kyle Kendrick will join Vance Worley at the bottom of the rotation. In other words, Kendrick’s outlay makes more sense to those doubting that judgment.

Jeremy Horst

D-Train’s thousands are not guaranteed, which means that a different 2nd lefty in the bullpen could free up $350K. As that southpaw, Jeremy Horst with Freddy Galvis would make $960K, while Wilson Valdez ($930K) and Willis ($850K) equal $1.78M. With Jimmy Rollins at short, Galvis–.315 for Triple-A Lehigh Valley–could capitalize on a fruitful break behind J-Roll, Polly and Chase Utley. These differences would boost the checkbook by $820K.

I added $5M to Cole Hamels’ payday in 2013, figuring a multi-season deal that will average $20M per 162. I also included $1M more for Kendrick ($3.585M). Hunter Pence ($10.4M) was calculated to receive a ‘13 raise of $4.6M for $15M per in a multi-year contract. That leaves a remainder of $15.88M plus $4M for the 8 spots ($.5M each). That’s a 3B, LF, 3 reservists and 3 youngsters in the relief corps out of $19.88M. With Brown in leftfield, the hot corner is the big expense and the others are minimal. Tomorrow’s expenditures impact today’s decisions.

ITEM PLUS MINUS Hamels, Kendrick & Pence / Payroll Changes

Buyouts

Minimum For Roster Replacements

$10.6M     

$02.0M

$04.0M

$28.98M

$03.50M

TOTAL $16.6M $32.48M

 

 REVISED WITH AAV (AVERAGE ANNUAL VALUE):

EXPEDITURE $ AMOUNT Arms & Bats

Buyouts

Achieved Incentives For 2012

$169.79M

$003.50M

$003.00M

TOTAL $176.29M

 

$178M Threshold:

This is the most hidden aspect of a GM’s decision-making process, and it is probably considered boring by other writers. Some scribes are endeavoring to understand it amid the confusion involved. Media outlets are somewhat stumped. That said, it uncovers some of the mystique beforehand, and the constraints facing the brain trust. It turns out that the competitive-balance tax is based on the AAV, but buyouts and options (player, club or mutual) can influence the average. This is a current revelation. Plus, a general manager can figure things in two different ways–at least. It’s unclear, like the up-in-air 2nd wild-card entry for this postseason. If I’m lucky, I’ll get a half-dozen questions answered, and I’ll use that information in my updated analysis–sooner rather than later.

SPRING TRAINING COMBAT:

POS. COMPETITION MY PICK OF Scott Podsednik vs. Juan Pierre Pierre LRP Dontrelle Willis vs. Jeremy Horst Both INF Michael Martinez vs. Freddy Galvis Galvis

 

WELCOME, NEWCOMERS:

I am doing a weekly Baseball-Fix Monday until the end of March. Also, I’ll publish after every game that is not washed out during the summer. My format will remain the same in 2012 with Nitecap Insight, The Precap (restructured as the Precap Pitch), and The Apocalyptic Horsemen.  Cap-Size Hindsight will feature certain players plus participants who warrant mention, good and bad, for what they have done in the contest or clubhouse. Penthouse Occupancy will cover all remarkable plays along with solid performances during critical moments by the red pinstripes. The best of those will receive The Crystal Champagne Toast. Cholley’s Doghouse is filled every now and then with a slacking effort. The Outhouse is for something that stinks, like a bad ump call. The Glass House is a stone’s throw away for a man who blows his opportunity to nail a juicier role. The Miniature Mansion is for off-field excellence, like a locker-room influence. However, these houses don’t have visitors after every battle: Some do and others don’t.

New wrinkles this season are:  The Kangaroo Court House, Fun House Of Mirrors and Rally Tal & Cap. The Big House Key will lock some in and reveal The Rising Son on others. My Critic’s Choice:  Precap Pitch is an innovative non-stat-oriented approach.

Dom Brown

 

 

BASEBALL-FIX MONDAY:

 

 

 

 

Raw-Ability Yardstick:

 

It’s a laborious journey from the signing and rookie league to the Bank. You might remember the names of the minor-league chips that were bartered for Cliff Lee, Doc and Roy Oswalt. Our 2 farm-system prospects at the top then were Brown and Drabek. While Dom will be learning leftfield at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Drabek is mentioned on the open market and there is no excitement in the air. Of course, Theo Epstein is asking for the moon but Drabek qualified as that in 2009-2010. As the competition increases in strength, another hopeful is stopped by his excellence ceiling. Rube Amaro hit AAA pitching. The only piece out of the swapped 9 and Brown still ascending is C d’Arnaud, 23, who was at Double-A New Hampshire. Five of them have reached the show, 1 made Triple-A, 2 achieved Double-A and the other has had arm troubles at Single-A.

ODDS = Success out of 6 prospects

Kyle Drabek Pictured In Toronto On September 17

LEVEL

ODDS

A

*A

AA

AAA

MLB

 

5

4

3

2

1

* Advanced

What do the 1980 and 2008 Phils have in common? A foundation assembled down on the farm. 3B Mike Schmidt, LF Greg Luzinski, C Bob Boone, SP Larry Christenson, RP Warren Brusstar and SS Larry Bowa formed the nucleus with their 25%. SS Jimmy Rollins, 1B Ryan Howard, 2B Chase Utley, C Chooch Ruiz , SP Hamels and RP Ryan Madson filled the same role in ‘08. Each squad had a starter, reliever, receiver, shortstop, a slugging corner infielder and another potent bat. The ‘80 champions finally reached the summit near the end of their run, while the current group is endeavoring to capture their 2nd trophy before time expires on them.

For Doc Halladay:                                                           * After Demotion To AAA

ARM

@

W-L

ERA

INN

H

R-ER

BB-S0

Drabek

MLB

4-5

6.06

78.2

87

54-53

55-51

       *

AAA

5-4

7.44

75.0

111

70-62

41-45

BAT

@

AVG

HR

RBI

E

SB

CS

d’Arnaud

AA

.311

21

78

6

4

2

Taylor

AAA

.272

16

64

5

14

5

 

Travis d'Arnaud

 

Doc wanted to be traded here because of what he saw: the homegrown base, the packed houses and the thundering cheers. He recognized those important ingredients and knew exactly where he wanted to star. All gifted entertainers want to reveal their skills in front of a huge audience. It drives them to reach heights that even they had slight doubts about. Drabek, 24, is named and nobody is rumored to desire his acquisition. Michael Taylor, 26, is with an organization that is wide open for chances, and he is stuck at Triple-A Sacramento. The only one left is d’Arnaud and, like Taylor, he has hit Double-A youth. The catcher will report to Triple-A Las Vegas this spring.

 

 

For Cliff Lee:                                                                                     * 3 Intentional

ARM

@

W-L

ERA

INN

H

R-ER

BB-S0

Carrasco

MLB

8-9

4.62

124.2

130

68-64

*43-85

BAT

@

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

CS

E-GM

Marson

MLB

.230

1

19

4

2

5-79

Donald

MLB

.318

1

8

3

2

4-39

 

AAA

.310

4

15

7

3

7-47

 

AA

.241

0

2

1

0

1-9

 

Carlos Carrasco On July 29 In Cleveland

 

 

Without this deal, the General would never have known where he was the happiest. Like the staff ace, Cliff knew which dugout he preferred to watch the triumphs. The Tribe’s compensation was the offer that the Blue Jays rejected for the Doctor. RHP Jason Knapp, 21, was the key to this exchange but he has had a broken wing for 1.5 years. He will almost have to begin over before landing at high Single-A. Lou Marson found his finish line in a reserve backstop position, while Jason Donald would be a bench occupant with a contender. RHP Carlos Carrasco, however, is a 4 slot in an MLB rotation–at best.

 

For Roy Oswalt:                                                                  * Advanced A Ball, ** August Demotion

ARM

@

W-L

ERA

INN

H

R-ER

BB-S0

Happ

MLB

6-15

5.35

156.1

157

103-93

83-134

 

**AAA

1-0

1.50

18.0

11

5-3

9-16

BAT

@

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

CS

E-GM

Gose

AA

.253

16

59

70

15

3-137

Villar

AA

.231

10

26

14

6

23-83

 

*A

.259

4

26

20

6

13-47

 

J.A. Happ On September 24 In Houston

 

The Wizard of Os was granted a move to a contending franchise, when the Astros were for sale by Drayton McClain. The owner appreciated the dedication of his number one and his quest for a ring late in his career. J.A. Happ, 29, was figured out by the league and his men-on-base jams finally were his downfall. Can he make adjustments, like Kendrick? And that was not an easy fix. CF Anthony Gose, 21, averaged .253 which is not leadoff-hitter material at Double-A. MLB hurlers make half as many mistakes by putting the ball where they want to on 70% of their darts, while 2 levels removed it is 40%. They miss 30% instead of 60%, which doubles the difficulty involved. SS Jonathan Villar, 21, is the all-glove, no-stick defender, who committed 36 errors in 130 games.

 

Other pieces:

ARM

@

W-L

ERA

INN

H

R-ER

BB-S0

Aumont

AAA

1-0

3.18

22.2

21

9-8

14-37

 

AA

1-5

2.32

31.0

23

16-8

11-41

Ramirez

AA

11-13

4.50

144

144

84-72

55-89

BAT

@

AVG

HR

RBI

SB

CS

E-GM

Wallace

MLB

.259

5

29

1

1

6-115

 

Phillippe Aumont

 

Rube lost d’Arnaud but he picked up Phillippe Aumont, 23, who may be in the ’pen at the Bank after June. J.C. Ramirez, 23, had spells of excellence, while OF Tyson Gillies, 23, appeared in just 3 contests last summer. 1B Wallace was sent to Toronto for Taylor, and touched down in Houston after Gose was shipped north. The Jays wanted Gose and acquired him for 2011.

Unseasoned athletes travel a long, bumpy road before they arrive somewhat polished at an MLB destination, but most (83%) are stopped along the way. Occasionally, there is a wave of cohesive talent that enters the parent club within a narrow window, forming the combative center for serious October baseball. After that the well runs dry for a so-called eternity. That said, the 70’s Dodgers had their success period but the replacements didn’t pan out. The same thing happened to the late 70’s Phillies, the Big Red Machine and the 90’s Yankees. You can expect things to even out after this core of current red pinstripes, as well. That’s why most of the chips for the Indians, Jays, and ‘Stros are complimentary MLB pieces at best. Aumont has prospered in Lehigh Valley, d’Arnaud has developed at Double-A, and they are the 2 to keep an eye on this season. We received the 2 best arms in the big leagues and a stud.

 

Diamond Appraisal is ( Philadelphia Phillies Storyline: Oswalt, Victim Of Parity ) my previous publication. Raw-Ability Yardstick is the 9th storyline for 2012 that can be found on the Phillies page ( Phillies | isportsweb ) or my author archives ( Tal Venada ).

The Phillies finished 42 games over .500, which equaled a year of many positives. I have many summer-long highlights of puzzle pieces, especially important after drubbings and defeats. I alternated the 2011 ERA For The NL East ( Philadelphia Phillies: 2011 ERA For The NL East At Game 162 And Final ) and 2011 ERA For The MLB 5 ( Philadelphia Phillies: Final 2011 ERA For The MLB 5 At Game 162) with the last 2 in the links. Thank you, to all who bookmarked the Phillies page, because feeds are erratic at times. Many visitors come from these outlets, and it is always obvious when one of those didn’t work. Tal’s Handy Stats is daily coverage. The 2012 MLB 5 may feature the Halos or Cardinals, while the Sox and Dodgers may be replaced.  

Note:  A site format change slightly altered the original ERA postings, but I’ll adjust my material accordingly for 2012. Two photos were used for game 162 on both, where 1 to 161 (1 picture) experienced only minimal distortion, unlike the finals.

 

 

 

This article first appeared on isportsweb.com and was syndicated with permission.

MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Report: Pacers accuse Lakers of tampering with Paul George

Report: Anquan Boldin abruptly tells Bills he's retiring

Todd Bowles blames O-line for Christian Hackenberg’s poor preseason outing

Justin Verlander implies baseballs are juiced

Blake Griffin: I could see LeBron going to NYC before LA

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Ric Flair's daughter says WWE legend 'getting better'

NBA confirms Lakers under investigation for tampering

Report: Le'Veon Bell may return to Steelers by Labor Day

Report: Savage 'firmly in control' of Texans' starting QB job

Jaguars send message with latest unofficial depth chart?

Hackenberg gets Wikipedia treatment after brutal sack

Getaway Day: The playing field is leveling off as the wild-card chase takes shape

Sports & Politics Intersect: Echoes of Charlottesville ripple across the sports world

Best of Yardbarker: NFL goes in on Ezekiel Elliott, NFLPA

BIG3 Playoff Preview: Can anyone stop Trilogy?

The 'Bye bye to the Beast Incarnate?' quiz

Why the SEC is not the best football conference anymore

Box Score 8/18: Reds and Cubs claw through a 23-run game

The 'M! E! S! S! Mess! Mess! Mess!' quiz

Three Up, Three Down: Giancarlo Stanton won't stop hitting homers

NFL shifts blame for Zeke suspension to police and NFLPA

Box Score 8/17: Interleague games bring the fireworks

The 'Forget Calvin, bring back Jerry' quiz

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Yardbarker Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.

Getaway Day: The playing field is leveling off as the wild-card chase takes shape

Sports & Politics Intersect: Echoes of Charlottesville ripple across the sports world

BIG3 Playoff Preview: Can anyone stop Trilogy?

The 'Bye bye to the Beast Incarnate?' quiz

Why the SEC is not the best football conference anymore

The 'M! E! S! S! Mess! Mess! Mess!' quiz

Three Up, Three Down: Giancarlo Stanton won't stop hitting homers

NFL shifts blame for Zeke suspension to police and NFLPA

The 'Forget Calvin, bring back Jerry' quiz

BIG3 Referee Hotline Bling: Charles Oakley slams the phone — and his opponents — down

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker