Originally written February 01, 2013 on Baseball Professor:
Josh Willingham has played for three different teams in the last three years. Chances are he’s also made the rounds in your fantasy league as well. And that’s because Willingham has proven himself to be a borderline top-100 player (or better), yet no one really has any intention of valuing him that highly. You could even say we’re guilty of that with our 2013 projection (.261, 28 HR, 93 RBI). To reach those marks in the projected 145 games played, Willingham could finish with a lower HR/FB rate than he’s posted in either of the last two years while performing slightly above average as a clean-up hitter. The problem with projecting (and drafting) Willingham is that his last two years are far and away better than what he’d done in the prior five. Before 2011, his two best seasons in homers were 26 and 24, and his two best seasons in RBI were 89 and 74. While it’s much more likely that he continues being the player we’ve seen in his last 281 games, I still think it’s prudent to be caut...
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