Originally written January 21, 2013 on Baseball Professor:
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Don’t believe in Derek Jeter‘s power resurgence! Jeter’s 15 homers last year were his most since 2009 (18), and he’s only hit 15+ in a season twice in the last seven years. His 16.1% HR/FB rate was his highest since reach 17.1% back in 2005, and in four of the last five years his HR/FB rate has been under 10.0%. But while Jeter is probably more of a 7-10 homer guy, that doesn’t mean he’s not immensely valuable. He’ll score at a 100-run pace, bat around .300, and steal some bases, too. Plus, he gets so many at-bats that his .300 average carries extra weight. In fact, Jeter’s .316 BA in 683 plate appearances last year was worth as much someone batting .335 over 500 at-bats. On the negative side, Jeter is clearly in decline. His walk rate has fallen each year since 2009, but he’s also seen his strikeout rate fall each year since 2010. He was never much of a fly ball hitter, but his best fly ball rate in the last three years is 18.6% (another reason why expecting double-digit homers is ...
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