Projecting the 2009 Cubs: Milton Bradley

2009 PROJECTIONS Rich Harden | Carlos Zambrano | Ryan Dempster | Ted Lilly | Sean Marshall | Kevin Gregg | Aaron Heilman | Chad Gaudin | Carlos Marmol | Angel Guzman | Neal Cotts | Luis Vizcaino | Kevin Hart | Jeff Samardzija | Geovany Soto | Derrek Lee | Mike Fontenot | Aramis Ramirez | Micah Hoffpauir | Aaron Miles | Reed Johnson | Joey Gathright | Paul Bako | Koyie Hill | Ryan Theriot | Alfonso Soriano | Kosuke Fukudome | Milton Bradley MILTON BRADLEY STATS Fan Graphs | The Hardball Times | ESPN | Baseball Reference | Cubs.com | Baseball Prospectus My mom always told me never to trust anyone who has a smile like this: Being serious now, Bradley's projections couldn't have come at a better time. Milton Bradley left yesterday's game with a tight something or other in his leg. I didn't pay much attention. It's the 2nd game of spring training and I don't care about the little nicks and bruises, which is what this was. Fans would have felt better had Bradley stayed in the game after walking in his only at-bat, but it's not about the fan. It's about keeping players healthy. Milton Bradley felt a muscle in his leg that was a little tight and wasn't going to risk it for the 2nd spring training game when there are 37 more of them. He shouldn't have. Not surprisingly, that has been lost in all of the discussion since he left the game. People are now panicking that he's going to be injured all the time. Look, we know the guy is likely to miss some time. I sure as hell don't want the guy busting ass in February to appease some fans who are never going to give the guy the benefit of the doubt in the first place. I don't want any player doing anything this time of the year if anything feels off. There is simply no point to it. This is a non-story yet it seems when I open up a Tribune or Sun Times article that it's the end of the world for Milton Bradley and the Cubs. Give me a break. Give Bradley a break. I've been accused of mounting an epic defense of Milton Bradley, but that is not true. I've wanted him signed for some time and made that clear around here. I don't care about the off the field issues and I'm not going to lie and exaggerate events that did happen on the field. I'm not going to blame Bradley for all of the mishaps when we know for a fact that at least one umpire baited him by saying racist stuff towards him. I don't want a black man to sit down, shut up, and take it. This isn't the 1950s. Any person who says stuff like that is an intolerant asshole who deserves to get his ass kicked. I'd prefer Milton Bradley not do it because he might get suspended or suffer an injury (he did), but someone needs to kick the shit out that umpire. It's funny that the same people who say I've mounted an epic defense of Bradley find themselves mounting an epic defense of racist scumbags like Jeff Kent (suddenly an honorable man) and that piece of shit umpire. They find themselves relying on information that may or may not be true. I don't know about the rest of you, but if it's a choice between exaggerating, lying, ignoring some information, and defending racists or defending someone like Milton Bradley, this isn't a difficult decision to make. Those who say otherwise are lying. Anyway, Bradley's "injury" wouldn't even have kept him out of an actual game according to him. I have no problem with a player playing safe this time of the year. Frankly, I have no problem with a player of his value playing safe all season long. I don't want Bradley to tear a ligament in his knee because he's busting ass down to 1st base on an infield hopper when we know his legs are fragile. Fuck that. I want the guy to stay healthy and I want him to do whatever it is he can do to stay healthy. We've been saying around here for some time that Milton Bradley is good at baseball. He is. As you'll see from the projections below, the guy can hit. He can also field. He has a career UZR in RF of 16.3. If Bradley matches that, he'll be a better defender than Fukudome was last year, people. He was 16.1 UZR/150 in the Rangers OF last season, but very few innings. In 2006 he played over 800 innings in RF and had a UZR/150 of 14.9. Bradley is above average in CF as well. Going back to 2002 through 2007, Bradley's UZR/150 in CF has been 11.1, 7.5, 5.3, 0.8, and 0.8. It's hard to know just how good he'll be in 2009. Rather than using his career average or any other number, I've decided to go with +5. That seems more than reasonable. The projections are below. Milton Bradley PA HR BB K AVG OBP SLG CAIRO 404 17 56 78 0.308 0.411 0.529 MARCELS 479 19 63 92 0.293 0.392 0.502 ZIPS 420 18 58 84 0.291 0.396 0.511 JAMES 520 20 70 108 0.287 0.391 0.489 CHONE 468 19 65 88 0.289 0.397 0.495 PECOTA 504 22 74 109 0.294 0.402 0.525 CBS 475 20 58 91 0.28 0.37 0.477 THT 439 20 60 89 0.297 0.401 0.522 AVERAGE 467 19 63 93 0.292 0.395 0.506 Per 700 PAs Pos PA OBP SLG Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR Bradley RF 479 .395 .506 3.90 0.00 -0.75 0.50 2.00 5.65 $19.1 3.9 If Milton Bradley can stay healthy for a full season again, the guy could be exceptionally good. +/- $WAR: $149.45 million Running total for team projected wins (updated as I do each profile) Replacement level team: 48.6 wins Kevin Gregg: 1.08 WAR Rich Harden: 5.75 WAR Carlos Zambrano: 3.65 WAR Ryan Dempster: 3.42 WAR Ted Lilly: 2.92 WAR Sean Marshall: 1.84 WAR Aaron Heilman: 0.61 WAR Chad Gaudin: 0.52 WAR Carlos Marmol: 1.41 WAR Angel Guzman: 0.11 WAR Neal Cotts: 0.31 WAR Luis Vizcaino: 0.42 WAR Kevin Hart: -0.06 WAR Jeff Samardzija: -0.13 WAR Geovany Soto: 5.3 WAR Derrek Lee: 3.4 WAR Mike Fontenot: 4.0 WAR Aramis Ramirez: 5.1 WAR Micah Hoffpauir: 0.7 WAR Aaron Miles: 0.3 WAR Reed Johnson: 0.8 WAR Joey Gathright: 0.4 WAR Paul Bako: 0.0 WAR Koyie Hill: 0.2 WAR Ryan Theriot: 2.1 WAR Alfonso Soriano: 4.4 WAR Kosuke Fukudome: 2.4 WAR Milton Bradley: 3.9 WAR TOTAL: 103.2 wins