Prospect Profiles 2010: Trayvon Robinson

Overview-A tenth round pick out of high school way back in 2005, Robinson didn't do a whole lot of impressing in his first two seasons as a professional. His collection of tools always had significant upside, but he didn't seem to be able to put it all together. While Robinson showed signs of improvement in 2008, i'll be the first to admit that I didn't think that highly of him coming into the 2009 season. Of course, he ended up proving all his doubters wrong, as he took a huge leap forward last year. Then, after a late season promotion, proceeded to hold his own against advanced pitching. 2010 is the year for Robinson to prove that his progress in 2009 was no fluke, and if he does, he'll find himself near the top of a lot of prospect lists.

Hitting-Robinson has a fluid swing from both sides of the plate, and he generates surprising bat speed for somebody his size. He uses the whole field well from the left and the right, and he has good gap power with room for growth. Assuming progress continues, it's not unrealistic to say he could end up closer to 20 homers than 10.

You usually expect lefties to have a natural lift in their swing, but Robinson has a much flatter bat path when batting southpaw. I assume this was purposely designed to take advantage of his speed, but it could limit his long term power potential from that side of the plate. On the flip side of things, Robinson's right handed stroke is much more explosive and aggressive. It has good natural loft, and he seems far more comfortable letting the ball travel deep in the zone before pulling the trigger.

Slowly but surely, Robinson is learning how to recognize pitches, but it'll have to continue for him to cut down on strikeouts and increase walks. As a result of the large weight shift in his swing, he has a tendency to hit off his front foot, which constantly leaves him lunging at quality breaking balls, especially ones that are away from him. That said, if he learns to limit the impact of these flaws, then there's nothing stopping Robinson from producing a .275-.285/.345-.355/.445-.455 line with 13-17 homers in the majors.

Fielding-Robinson has the range and athleticism to stick in center field, but the questions about his defense involve his routes and jumps. The upside is that routes and jumps can be taught, while speed and athleticism cannot. Unfortunately, I actually think his defense regressed a bit from last year, which would raise questions about exactly how much progress he's making. That said, if we learned anything from prospect discussions about Matt Kemp, it's that we shouldn't simply write off an athletic toolsy outfielder to a corner because he looks lost at times. Unlike Kemp though, Robinson's arm isn't anything special, so if he were to move to a corner, it would be to left field, where he likely profiles as a plus defender.

Baserunning-He has plus speed, but it's a tick short of elite level. Fortunately, he possesses solid baserunning instincts and awareness. Robinson's baserunning is underrated because of his high caught stealing totals, but that was more a function of being forced to run as practice than being anything indicative of how he will perform at the major league level. Sure, he's still a work in progress as a base stealer, even he admitted as much, but I saw a fluid and aware baserunner that could take extra bases and scored when he needed to.

Mental-Robinson has a bit of a reputation for his temper and questionable character, but it all seems unfounded. Yes, he gets frustrated at times, but the way he expresses that frustration is not any different from what you see when Andre Ethier grounds into a double play. Robinson plays like a man driven to succeed, and he gets angry sometimes when he doesn't. Honestly, I see more passion and drive in his outbursts than a bad attitude.

Health-No significant injury history that i'm aware of.

Performance-Even in retrospect, there was little in Robinson's profile that indicated last year's breakout was coming. In 2006 and 2007, he posted mediocre lines of .254/.340/.381/.720 and .253/.314/.311/.625, respectively. Even in 2008, when he made more contact (23.7 K%|30.1 K%) and upped his ISO (.109/.058), his line (.276/.328/.385/.713) was uninspiring and his walk rate (6.7 BB%|7.2 BB%) regressed.

Sure, there were some signs of a better player to come, but nothing like what happened in 2009, when he blitzed the California League to the tune of a .306/.375/.500/.875 line, showing a huge surge in power (.194 ISO) and patience (9.5 BB%). His strikeout rate was still a problem (26.6 K%), but the power spike made it more palatable. Furthermore, Robinson ended up stealing 43 bases in A-ball, and even though he got caught 18 times, it shows that potential on the basepaths certainly exists.

After getting a well earned promotion to AA, Robinson held his own against advanced pitching. He posted a .797 OPS, his power held steady (.193 ISO), and he actually walked more frequently (14.3 BB%). However, his strikeouts did spike (31.6 K%), but I sort of expected that in his first limited exposure to advanced breaking balls. Perhaps most importantly though, Robinson is finally learning to hit effectively from both sides of the plate, as he actually posted a higher OPS as a southpaw than as a righty last year.

In light of all the positive, remember that it was only one year. The high offensive output of the California League further complicates things, and Robinson will need to have a good showing in 2010 against advanced pitching to prove he deserves to be a top prospect in the system. He doesn't need to own AA like he did high-A, but a nice skills consolidation year would legitimize his overall progress as a player.

Other-I previously had the pleasure of interviewing him, and my overall impression was very positive. Good sense of humor, down to earth, and he probably showed better poise than I did.

Projection-Robinson's ceiling is promising because of his tools, and if he keeps developing, there's a chance he could become a .285/.350/.455/.810 hitter with 15 homers and 30 steals. Maybe an .810 OPS doesn't sound so impressive, but it would probably put him within the top 25 outfielders in the league. Defensively, Robinson has the tools to stick at center, and he could end up above average if improvement to his reads and jumps eventually come.

As promising as that sounds, there's a large gap between that potential player and the guy he is now. Robinson has a lot to prove in 2010, and as it currently stands, there's still a strong possibility he could end up as a fourth outfielder type. Personally though, i'm currently of the belief that Robinson should continue to show enough progress with his swing and plate discipline that he gets close to his offensive potential. However, I think his defense profiles best in left field, where he could be a plus defender for the team and provide value that way.

He should begin 2010 at AA, but could get a call in September if he performs as expected. If Robinson does continue his meteoric rise, there's an outfield job waiting for him in 2011.