Found February 19, 2009 on flushingfaithful.com:
Not long ago everyone thought it would be Niese in the 5th spot. But now we're looking at a true battle with others who have been brought into the fold.

Omar decided against signing Pedro and didn't think that Niese and Parnell should be the only participants in the battle. You don't want to just hand over the spot, you want the 5th starter to earn it.

Niese came up and had 3 starts. 2 starts came in pressurized circumstances where it was hard to expect him to succeed. And in those 2 starts he put up some hideous numbers but you could see the nervousness in him when he took the mound. The 3rd start was a gem, 8 shutout innings against the Braves in a game that wasn't a battle for first place like the game against the Brewers.

Parnell came up and was placed in the pen. As a starter in the minors he had decent numbers but the Mets saw an opportunity to see if Parnell could be the guy in the pen they seemed to be missing. He did pretty well in his opportunity but he is a starter and will probably return to starting in AAA.

The rest of the participants in this battle royale are Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding, Livan Hernandez, Brandon Knight, Nelson Figueroa, Brad Holt. Obviously some of these players will not come north with the final 25 man roster.

Tim Redding - Signed to a major league contract with the intention of using him as a 5th starter if they couldn't land someone else. Upon signing the contract, Redding was told he could possibly be a long reliever which is something the Mets haven't truly replaced since Darren Oliver. Willie has Sele and never used him and last year there wasn't a true long reliever.

Last year Redding had pretty pedestrian numbers, 10-11 4.95 ERA. The Nats bullpen gave him the Santana treatment and blew like 7 games so he could have had a better record but that ERA, the number of hits and walks is still pretty high. He's not a bad pitcher but he's lacking something?just can't put my finger on it.

Freddy Garcia - Signed to a minor league deal which has incentives if he makes the 25 man roster and has the option to leave if he doesn't make the roster.

It's been a while since he's been big game Freddy. People say he was an ace, I say he was a 2-3 starter who gave you very good numbers. He tried to rehab an injury that almost always needs surgery and the numbers he put up in that situation were atrocious. He was giving up home runs at an alarming rate.

He had the surgery, came back last year at the end of the year and looked better than he has in 2 years. Kind of like when Pedro came back from his surgery, good numbers and looked like it may be the turning point but labrum surgery is usually a death sentence for a pitcher.

Livan Hernandez - Signed to a minor league deal with incentives if he makes the 25 man roster. This signing made no sense to me at all. They were saying how they wanted a bat and were trying to trade Castro "to free up money" yet they could sign Livan Hernandez. I wish the Wilpons would just admit to losing so much money to Madoff that they have to run the team as lean as the Royals do.

Livan did not have a good year at all in 2008. He was pretty much an innings eater his whole MLB career with a few good years and then came knee surgery. Since then he's been trying to find his way again. He may be far enough removed from the surgery to be a decent pitcher again but he was never really that good in the first place.

Brandon Knight - He had a decent showing last year but he may not be a major league starter for a team like the Mets. He has more than one pitch but he relies a lot on his fastball which isn't the greatest fastball but he can get outs. I personally think he would make a great long or short reliever because then he can let his fastball fly. As a starter he stays around 90-93 mph but sometimes he comes in and tries to blow everyone away and by the 5th inning he's burned out. In short work he can get it up to 96 mph.

Nelson Figueroa - Another guy who can start but may be best as a reliever. Figs can give you 5-7 innings of decent pitching. But he's not a guy with a lot of stuff, he gets by on guile and fooling batters. I see him as more of a middle reliever type.

Brad Holt - This guy is a beast and if he can refine his pitches a little more he can be the next Pelfrey and he won't have Peterson there to stunt his progress. Big guy, bigger arm. But if he can't refine his pitches then he can be a power type reliever, possibly a closer. Holt will probably start in AAA unless he can blow everyone away this spring which he just might do. The Mets took a chance with this signing and he may turn out to be the jewel of their draft last year.

If I was going to handicap this race I'd say it's Garcia's job to lose due to his history but he may not be back to 100% yet which could hurt his chances.

Redding can end up as a long reliever and backup starter in case someone gets hurt. Redding in the pen will cause other issues like players without options being pushed out.

Niese will be on the team at some point in 2009 but may start in AAA. Knight and Figs will probably join him in AAA.

Holt is the dark horse. Most people will probably say "he's not ready". The way to build a pitcher is to push him, not baby him like most of baseball seems to do these days. He will probably be in AA this year but I would not be surprised to see him in Citi Field in 2009, maybe not at the start of the season but he may force his way onto this team before September callups.
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