Too Long For A Comment

I started writing this as a comment, but it seemed too long. I apologize ahead of time for the rambling. The quoted text is from Shawn. What about the Cardinals? Take Holliday and all their FA’s off their roster, and what do they project out as next season? All 3 teams need to spend money to get to the 90-win area. True, but some teams are in better shape to do so. Below are the 2009 and 2010 payrolls Cubs: $137.8 million, $120 million Cardinals: $94.5, $50.6 Brewers: $80.3, $46.8 (includes Hoffman) There won’t be many teams that increase payroll in 2010 and many may even cut payroll. Let’s just assume they all take the field in 2010 with the same payroll as they did in 2009. The Cubs have about $18 million to spend. The Cardinals have about $44.1 million and the Brewers have $33.5 million. Both of these teams are in a position to get better than the Cubs because of the money that they free up this winter. The Brewers and Cubs each have 8 arbitration eligible players on their roster while the Cardinals have only 5. The Cardinals free up the most money and they have the fewest players they have to offer arbitration to. If we assume that all 3 of these teams are nearly equal when we consider all free agents and the loss of Milton Bradley, the Cubs are going to have to spend a lot more than either of these teams to be legitimate contenders next year. Sure, they could get lucky like they did in 2003 and 2008. Maybe they win 4, 5 or even 10 more games than we’d expect them to. The 2009 Cubs won about 8 fewer games than their true talent suggested they’d win when the season began. The opposite could happen in 2010 or maybe the same thing happens. Who knows? It’s luck. Maybe they get even worse luck in 2010 than they had in 2009. What I do know is that the Cubs are going to have to outspend the Brewers and Cardinals this offseason. I also know that the Cardinals free up nearly $45 million in payroll while the Brewers free up $33 million. I know that the Cubs free up significantly less than either of those teams. If the Cardinals spend $45 million—same payroll as 2009—the Cubs Opening Day payroll is going to need to be about $170 million. That is, unless the Cubs can find some great bargains and increase payroll significantly, there’s not much chance of the Cubs being a serious contender when the season begins. Who knows what happens once it starts? Everybody on the Cardinals and Brewers could get injured while Sam Fuld wins the MVP. I have no idea. Those things are entirely possible. The Cubs could also backload some deals as they have been doing, but that’s still going to add a lot of payroll. If the Cubs go that route, they need to shoot for a $160 million payroll when the season begins. That’s an increase of just slightly more than $25 million. Going back to 2000, the largest increase is $19 million between 2007 and 2008. Their payroll increased about $16 million last year. A lot of unexpected things can happen in baseball, but it’s hard to imagine this team being a legitimate contender when the season begins without increasing payroll more than they ever have. The simple fact that the Cubs are unlikely to offer arbitration to Rich Harden tells us they don’t have much money to spend. The only reason you’d not offer Harden arbitration is if you didn’t have money to increase payroll.