Found November 10, 2012 on The Flagrant Fan:
The equation between what teams should pay a free agent and what they end up paying him do not always match up. The free agent history of the past thirty years is littered with bad contracts. So, if you are a general manager and the prize free agent on the market is Zack Greinke, what should you pay him? Is he closer to Sabathia-type money at $23 million per year or he is closer to Weaver-type money at $16 million per season? Let's take a look. To look at a value for Zack Greinke, the feeling here is that you have to throw out 2009. That season is looking more and more like an outlier for Greinke. In 2009, he doubled his high for WAR from any other of his most recent five seasons. To add that season in to the equation would be what Greinke's agent should do. But for a general manager, that season should not figure into calculations. There are a couple of reasons to think this way. First, in 2009, Greinke peaked as far as his velocity is concerned. His fastball was a ...
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