Originally written on Mets360.com  |  Last updated 4/27/12
If you go to ESPN.com’s standings page, you will see a column labeled “POFF” which is a team’s odds of making the postseason. The Mets are on pace for 94 wins and are 10-5 against teams from the National League East, generally considered the toughest division in the league, yet they have just over a 17 percent chance of making the playoffs according to this metric. ESPN gets this information from coolstandings.com which runs simulations to come up with their odds. According to their Web site, here’s how they do it: ”To determine the chance team A has of beating team B, coolstandings.com estimates the expected number of runs that team A will score against team B, and the expected number of runs that team B will score against team A. These numbers are estimated using team statistics (such as RS and RA), and plugged into a modified version of the Pythagorean theorem. With these results, we simulate the rest of the season, using each team’s remaining schedule, and determine how many t...
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