Man looks in the abyss, there’s nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss. – Lou Mannheim from Wall Street
The only reason to bet on John Maine is the fact that he very well may be pitching for his baseball career this coming Sunday in St. Louis. People tend to do remarkable things when their back is against the wall. That, of course, is the heart talking because the head says John Maine is nearly done as a big league pitcher.
Take this quote from Monday’s postgame:
I hate everything that’s going on with me right now… I don’t need to throw 95 mph, I just need to get my fastball down.”
Is Maine saying he can’t throw 95 anymore? Sure sounds like it from the quote. If that is the case, then can he reinvent himself by becoming a change of speed/location pitcher? According to Joe Janish of Mets Today, who is a former college player and coach, it’s unlikely:
If by some miracle Maine can get his giddyup back in that range, he has a chance to be an effective pitcher 50-60% of the time. If not, he’s going to have a hard time adjusting to what is average MLB velocity, because his mechanics as they are now do not allow him to have average control — much less the pinpoint control necessary to win consistently at the big league level.
So if Maine can’t throw 95 mph and doesn’t have the capability to be a control pitcher what next? Reinventing himself probably means a lengthy minor league stint. Even then there are no guarantees. Even if he is successful I find it hard to believe the results will come in 2010.
The good news is Maine believes he found a mechanical glitch after watching video from 2007:
“I don’t want to get into why that is, but there’s a big difference,” Maine said about his mechanics. “I’m going to scratch everything I’ve been doing since the beginning of spring and get back to what I was doing two years ago and even last year.”
Why did Maine get away from a successful formula? Why doesn’t he want to talk about it? Why was this not discovered a couple of years ago? This certainly is an indictment on Dan Warthen who has a less than impressive track record with the pitching staff.
It doesn’t seem like the media is aggressively asking about the drop in velocity, but it’s not like you get any kind of answer from Jerry Manuel or John Maine.
Would you bet on John Maine this Sunday? A simple if/then of the above quotes tells you no. Either Maine finds his velocity in the next four days or he is about to become a footnote in Mets history.
Original Story:
http://nybaseballdigest.com/?p=23678
