Found December 29, 2011 on Obsessed With Sports:
A UFC PPV on a Friday? OK, I guess. Why? Well, last Saturday was Christmas Eve. This coming Saturday is New Year’s Eve. There was little choice if the UFC wanted to do a true “end of the year” show. It’s tradition — so they made it happen. So I’m not going to complain. The UFC might be losing revenue due to the calendar, though. Fan are used to having these things on a Saturday night. Regardless, we’ve got fights tomorrow night. I’ll take a gambling point of view for UFC 141. Shall we begin? We start with the “upset special” — and this is a good one, potentially. Nam Phan vs. Jim Hettes Nam Phan is a rather large -230 favorite. This means you can get Hettes at around +180. Phan only has 3 fights in the octagon. He is 1-2. His victory comes over Leonard Garcia, who also beat him in his UFC debut. I’m just not sure how this warrants a -230 number. Hettes, on the other hand, is 9-0 (1-0 in the UFC). As more of a play against Phan, than one on Hettes, I would take the underdog here. Pick: Hettes (Submission) Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks I became a fan of Hendricks when I saw him beat Amir Sadollah live at UFC 101 in Philly. That was in August of 2009. After putting together three-more wins, Hendricks faced Rick Story and lost. That was one year ago this month. In 2011, Hendricks has won both his UFC bouts. Jon Fitch is Jon Fitch. He can beat just about anyone at 170 without the initials GSP. No more analysis needed. I’d love to step out on the limb, since I like Hendricks a lot. But, I just can’t. Similar to our first fight, Fitch is a -230 favorite while Hendricks gets the +180 underdog number. Pick: Fitch (Decision) Nate Diaz vs. Donald Cerrone We’ve got a fight of the night candidate here. At least, on paper, this is a fun one. Cerrone is getting another step-up in competition with Diaz. On the other side of the cage, Diaz has been struggling with top-tier fighters. He has lost two of his last three in the octagon. Both these guys are damn good on the ground. I’m hoping we will see something interesting if it gets there. Cerrone is a pretty massive favorite all things considered. He comes in at -280. That means you can get Diaz around +220. As far as betting goes; I would likely stay away from this one. At least straight-up. Pick: Cerrone (Decision) Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem The big one. Quite literally. This one is for the right to face Junior Dos Santos for the heavyweight strap. This will be Overeem’s UFC debut. I was surprised at the respect he is getting from Vegas. I would have thought this would have been another money dump on Lesnar. And maybe it will be. Overeem is a substancial -145 favorite. This means you can get Lesnar with a nice + in front of his number. Specifically, he is around +115 if you find the right book. I’m curious as to which fighter will come out more hungry. Will it be Overeem wanting to make a good first impression? Or could it be Lesnar coming off that title loss? In the gambling realm; I’d hope Lesnar’s wrestling will be the difference. That’s what I would bet on. If Lesnar is dumb enough to stand with the K-1 boxing veteran for too long, then he deserves to lose. That said, I’ll take the odds. Pick: Lesnar (TKO)
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