In his first full season as a starting quarterback, Matthew Stafford threw for over 5,000 yards. The only other players in NFL history to accomplish that feat are Dan Marino, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees- pretty good company. Stafford obviously has tremendous ability but trying to decipher what makes him successful becomes a little more complicated. Since Stafford has been so injury prone throughout his career, we have a lot fewer games to evaluate when dealing with Stafford, unlike last week’s hot seat participant Drew Brees, and we need to also take into account the maturation process that Stafford continues to go through. With that disclaimer in place, let’s get into Stafford the quarterback.
As I mentioned previously, Matthew Stafford had an incredible 2011 season. He threw for more than 5,000 yards and 41 TDs. One of the reasons he threw for so many yards is that Stafford led the league in passing attempts. Despite the fact that Stafford threw the ball so frequently, the Lions still were able to finishing in the top 10 in the league in rushing. Combining these two elements of their offensive attack made the Lions such a scary opponent in 2011 and continue to make them scary in 2012- as long as Stafford stays healthy.
So who benefits most from Stafford running the Lions offense? The answer in 2012 might not be what it was in 2011.
The stats show that Brandon Pettigrew is going to continue to become a larger part of the Lions offense.
The Detroit Lions Tight Ends-
Before we mention a tight end we should make it clear that the person who will always be the number one option in Detroit is Calvin Johnson. Johnson possesses talent that few other receivers in the league do and the number of opportunities to catch the ball his quarterback gives him makes him so dangerous. In 2011, 24% of all of Stafford’s passes went to Johnson (while 24% of his 2012 throws have been headed the same way). What often gets overlooked is the fact that over 30% of his other throws in 2011 also went to other receivers- 203 throws to be exact. This stat no doubt led many fantasy pundits to predict a breakout season for Titus Young due to the amount of opportunity Stafford offered his receivers. What has happened early though in the 2012 season is that Stafford has looked more frequently to his tight ends. Although stats can be misleading this early in the season I do not feel this particular one is- Stafford has looked the way of his tight ends 35% of the time while only 22% of his throws have gone to receivers not named Johnson. The NFL is a copycat league and the success Tom Brady is having throwing to his tight ends is no doubt influencing young quarterbacks like Stafford. What does this mean for your fantasy team. It might be time to trade for Brandon Pettigrew.
The Lions running backs-
You never know exactly who the Lions running back will be, but the fact that Stafford is so explosive as a passer makes whoever finds himself in the backfield is a solid fantasy option. As I mentioned before, the Lions finished in the top 10 in the league in rushing in 2011. Although the numbers are not as great after 2 games in 2012, you have to take into account the fact that one of those games was played against one of the best rushing defenses we have seen in years- the San Francisco 49ers. Kevin Smith is the guy right now but it will pay to keep an eye over the next couple years to see if the Lions can find a feature back to bring into the mix. And yes, that back could be Mikel Leshoure who is due back from injury shortly although he has an uphill climb to get there.
At only 24, Matthew Stafford is beyond his years as a quarterback. He runs a high-powered offense that can only improve as he becomes more seasoned. At some point in the near future there will be a changing of the guard on the Mount Rushmore of quarterbacks as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees move aside. Stafford looks like a lock to take one of the available spots.
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September 21, 2012
