New Orleans Saints ceiling and floor for 2023

With the regular season kicking off Thursday, we're dusting off our earlier guides on the ceilings and floors of each team in the NFL.

Here's what we said about New Orleans back in June. Let's examine what's changed:

Ceiling: 11-6 (original: 12-5)

New Orleans is the favorite in the NFC South for good reason, so why the drop in expected regular season production? Its schedule might be tougher than initially thought. The Saints travel to Green Bay in Week 3, and quarterback Jordan Love looked solid in the preseason. No one is sleeping on New England's formidable pass rush either, which will be a major test for New Orleans' offensive line in Week 5. 

The Saints should finish no worse than 4-2 in their division games, meaning it would need to go 7-4 in its other games, which is feasible. New Orleans plays the Texans and Rams, two expected wins. In the best-case scenario, we'll give the Saints two out of their three games against the Titans, Packers and Patriots. That leaves the Saints needing three wins from a slate that includes the Jaguars, Bears, Lions and Giants at home and road games against the Colts and Vikings.

Floor: 8-9 (original: 6-11)

All indications point to quarterback Derek Carr acclimating well to his second NFL home in New Orleans, making it difficult to see how this year's team is any worse than last year. Yes, Andy Dalton was a more consistent option in 2022 than 2021 backups Trevor Siemian and Ian Book and it didn't stop the Saints from finishing with a worse record. The Saints dropped to 7-10 last season after going 8-9 in 2021. Last year showed the Saints' problems run deeper than at starting quarterback, with a defense susceptible to the run, a lack of turnovers and a rickety offensive line also holding the team back.

However, we're banking on Carr being a big enough improvement over Dalton to at the very least lead to one more victory. Even so, the Saints have legitimate areas of concern that could keep this year's team from finishing with a winning record.