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Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon (1). Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

NFL 'TNF' Week 1: Two touchdown bets for Lions vs. Chiefs

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 9/6/23

We've made it to a fresh NFL season! We are back, baby. I am so excited to get back to digging into NFL bets on a regular basis. Here at Yardbarker, we're ramping up our betting coverage the entire season with a few weekly staples, one of which is this article.

For each "island" game, we'll be circling a few names to watch in the touchdown market. I'll be taking Thursday and Monday night, while Jack Dougherty will tackle the "Sunday Night Football" slate. We'll be tracking the success here all year long — let's have us a winning season.

A disclaimer on touchdown props: it's best to go light. I'll typically only play TD props at a half-unit at the most. It can be a fickle and random market at times, and the prices from sportsbooks often don't accurately reflect the likelihood of a bet hitting. Take FanDuel's odds for this opening game against the Lions and Chiefs. Yes, the over/under is extremely high, but should Isiah Pacheco really be -105 for a touchdown? I'll be finding plus-money at every turn. Time to dig in.

Jerick McKinnon (+200 DraftKings)

Kansas City is a tough offense to figure out, but one player I'm confident will have a steady role is running back Jerick McKinnon.

McKinnon's red zone usage is what really caught my eye. He led the team in total red zone volume last year, seeing 20 rushing attempts and 15 targets. His 15 targets were third on the team behind Travis Kelce (30) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (16). Smith-Schuster is no longer on the team, and Kelce is questionable to play.

No team threw the football inside the 10 more often than the Chiefs in 2022, and it's here that I envision our best chance of McKinnon finding paydirt. You could pivot to McKinnon's receiving touchdown when that market opens, it's likely going to be set at +300 or +400, but I'll opt for the safer floor that includes his rushing work.

McKinnon scored nine touchdowns in his final nine games last season.

Detroit has allowed 33 touchdowns to running backs over the past two seasons, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL.

Kalif Raymond (+650 DraftKings)

I have been wrestling with how I want to attack the Detroit side of football for more than a day now. The clear focus for me has to be on pass-catchers. I broke down the defenses that allowed the most touchdowns to each position last year, and Kansas City popped up as a team that allowed the second-most TDs to wide receivers. The Chiefs dealt with this issue in 2021 as well, allowing the sixth-most to the position.

Context is likely important here: Kansas City is one of the best teams in the NFL and often forces teams to go to the air. But that doesn't really matter here, as that is the exact game script I foresee the Lions needing to keep this one close.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

Now, back to my dilemma. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the chalky choice here, but I don't like his price. Marvin Jones and Josh Reynolds were both given consideration, but I truly couldn't decipher which one I liked more.

As such, I'm pivoting to the biggest value on the board, Kalif Raymond.

Raymond was second on the Lions in receiving yards last season, and signed a two-year contract extension last month. He's been getting some solid buzz this summer as a player set to have a role on offense, especially with WR Jameson Williams suspended for the first six games.

Are fans sleeping on Kalif Raymond as a WR2?

Lions' STs coach Dave Fipp recently alluded to the possibility of Kalif having a more prominent role on offense.

Kalif was the only player Holmes was willing to extend before the season.

The #Lions are going to utilize him a lot! pic.twitter.com/4C78rdPtRy
— LionsFanReport (@lionsfanreport) September 4, 2023

Raymond saw a red zone target in each of the last five games to end the 2022 season, and despite his steady involvement in the passing game, failed to score a touchdown. He scored four in 2021, his first in Detroit and with Jared Goff.

In a game set at 52.5 points, I want to find value in the touchdown market. It just so happens that one of the best prices come from a position I've wanted to target all along. By all means, look to some of the more mainstream names at receiver here, I'm rocking with Raymond.

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