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NFL Week 12 predictions
USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 12 predictions

If nothing else, Week 11 showed that each conference's power structure is set at the top. New England appears to have put its early-season struggles fully in the rearview mirror, the Steelers finally saw their offense wake up, Philadelphia demolished Dallas at JerryWorld, and the Vikings made a big statement against the Rams. There is intrigue elsewhere, though. The Ravens, left for dead by many, are still laying in the weeds in the AFC playoff picture. New Orleans showed its mettle by rallying to hold serve at home against Washington. The Saints' reward is a Rams team eager to get back to winning football. Perhaps no situation is more intriguing than the one in the AFC West, where the Chiefs are still atop the division, but looking very wobbly, while the Chargers are two games back, with one remaining against K.C. in three weeks' time.

 
1 of 16

Minnesota (-3) at Detroit

Minnesota (-3) at Detroit
Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

Minnesota had the toughest test of Week 11, and the Vikes made the biggest statement in the league, thumping the Rams in the second half en route to a 24-7 win. The defensive effort from Minnesota was impressive enough, holding the league's top scoring team without a point for the game's final 50+ minutes, but a balanced, effective offensive performance from Case Keenum and company was also eye-opening. That said, Detroit can still make things very interesting, given that they have a very soft schedule the rest of the way, and already own a win over the Vikings. Another one here will put them one game behind Minnesota, with a tiebreaker to boot. Detroit's defense will have to be its salvation in this one, much like it was in the first meeting. Turnovers will be the story here. If the Lions force them, Matthew Stafford is good enough that they should win a close one. If Minnesota is as efficient as they were against the Rams, they could make this look easy. Minnesota has been hugely impressive, but Detroit seems like a perfect spoiler.

Pick: Lions

 
2 of 16

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas (-1)

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas (-1)
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Chargers may be the most interesting team in football. Five of their six losses have been by one score or less, and four of them were to teams currently leading a division. In simpler terms, Los Angeles is probably not as bad as its record would indicate. What's more, with the Chiefs seemingly nearing crisis mode, a few more wins for L.A. could put them in a position to steal the AFC West out from under Kansas City. Dallas, meantime, has no Ezekiel Elliott, and in two games without him, has been outscored 64-16. The Cowboys are 30-18-1 on Thanksgiving, which is impressive, but less so when one considers that every one of those games is at home, and most teams are better in their own building. What matters most for this game is that Los Angeles is the better team right now.

Pick: Chargers

 
3 of 16

New York Giants at Washington (-7.5)

New York Giants at Washington (-7.5)
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

The Giants aren't exactly playing inspired football, even with their win over the Chiefs, and Washington is doubtless angry after a strong effort on the road fell apart late against New Orleans. Washington has very little chance at the playoffs unless several teams ahead of them spiral down the stretch, as the NFC playoff picture is loaded with teams at least two games ahead of them in the standings. That having been said, Washington gets the Giants twice, and also has the woeful Broncos, shorthanded Cowboys, mediocre Cardinals, and Jekyll and Hyde Chargers left on the schedule. A 9-7 finish isn't out of the question. Problem is, 10-6 might be the bare minimum requirement to make the post-season in the NFC. Ben McAdoo's charges would no doubt love to play spoiler, but this one is on the road, and Washington is desperate.

Pick: Redskins

 
4 of 16

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-8.5)

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-8.5)
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Georgia Dome may have imploded, but the structural integrity of the Falcons' season seems a little more sound after a gut check win over Seattle. Atlanta's schedule is brutal, with a date against the Vikings, two against the Saints, and one versus the Panthers still remaining. An optimist would look at that and say that Atlanta controls its own destiny. In any event, what's inarguable is that the Falcons are 3-1 in their last four games, and seem past the doldrums that threatened to completely torpedo their season. They should receive only token resistance from a Buccaneers team that has won two straight, but done so against the rapidly disintegrating Jets and Dolphins. Ryan Fitzpatrick may have gone to Harvard, but the smart bet is on the other quarterback who went to college in Massachusetts.

Pick: Falcons

 
5 of 16

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-8.5)

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-8.5)
David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Is there anything left to say about either one of these teams? The Browns are terrible, and despite having a chance to upset Jacksonville, fell predictably short. There is no joy in Cleveland, no reason for anything resembling optimism. 0-16 becomes more and more realistic with each passing defeat. The Bengals are only a game out of a playoff spot, but their schedule the rest of the way is still daunting, and even if it wasn't, they have the familiar stench of a team going nowhere, spinning its tires. Same as it ever was, really, for Mike Brown's organization. If the Bengals lose one or two more games, would giving the reins to A.J. McCarron be the worst idea? Sure, they tried to trade him, but Andy Dalton hasn't won anything of substance, and seems to be growing more stale by the day. Anyway, onto the game. Cincinnati will win, and keep their faint hopes alive. It won't be all that close, either.

Pick: Bengals 

 
6 of 16

Tennessee (-3.5) at Indianapolis

Tennessee (-3.5) at Indianapolis
Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Tennessee would be the fifth seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today, but there is legitimate reason to question whether they are serious contenders. The Steelers carved them up in the second half, and Marcus Mariota was much too careless with the football. It seems that the Titans exist a clear step or two below the elites of the conference, not to mention division rival Jacksonville. That said, they get a welcome tonic in the form of an Indianapolis team that has just enough ability to make games interesting for a period of time, but nowhere enough to win them against a team of any real pedigree. Tennessee should win, and it would be a welcome sight for their fans if they could look impressive in the process, especially against a defense as bad as Indy's.

Pick: Titans

 
7 of 16

Buffalo at Kansas City (-10)

Buffalo at Kansas City (-10)
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Nathan Peterman Experiment was a spectacular failure for Sean McDermott and the Bills, who would be clinically insane to go back to Peterman against Kansas City, though nothing definitive has been revealed about this week's quarterbacking plans. Tyrod Taylor gives the Bills the best chance to win, and perhaps the snub of an undeserved benching motivates him to play at a higher level. In any case, the Bills will have to take care of the ball and take it away from the Chiefs, reeling in their own right, if they want to spring an upset on the road. Buffalo has the formula in the form of a potent running game and a QB who can extend plays in the form of Taylor. The question in this one is whether or not the Chiefs regain their early season form. If they do, Buffalo is in trouble. If current trends hold, the fans at Arrowhead Stadium may start booing. The guess here is that Buffalo, with Taylor at the helm, not only keeps it close, but springs a major upset.

Pick: Bills

 
8 of 16

Miami at New England (-16)

Miami at New England (-16)
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Sixteen points might not be high enough for this one. Miami's offense is next-to-last in points, and 30th in yards. Impotent is an understatement. Jay Cutler is questionable, but short of Miami grafting prime Peyton Manning onto their roster, the person playing quarterback wouldn't matter. The Dolphins are bad defensively, as well, ranking 25th in the league in points allowed. All of this adds up to a likely rout for New England, a team that seems to be well on its way to peaking. The Pats' offense is as fearsome as ever, piling up points and yards with ease, but what should really scare the rest of the league is the fact that they've now gone six straight games without surrendering 20 points. Tom Brady is playing at an MVP level, and if New England can be this good defensively the rest of the year, it's hard to imagine anyone beating them. The Dolphins certainly won't.

Pick: Patriots

 
9 of 16

Carolina (-4.5) at New York Jets

Carolina (-4.5) at New York Jets
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Panthers have quietly gone about posting a 7-3 record, and are 2-0 since trading Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo, grinding out a win over the Falcons and rolling up nearly 550 yards of offense in a demolition of the Dolphins. Devin Funchess, the man whose presence made the Benjamin trade more understandable, has emerged as the leader of the receiving corps, and Christian McCaffrey has slowly gotten more comfortable in the offense. Carolina's defense has remained stout, and they figure to be more than a match for the Jets, who have stumbled to a 1-4 mark over their last five games. This game has the potential to be closer than perhaps the numbers would suggest, as the Panthers are no stranger to slugfests, and the Jets are at home, but expect Carolina to prevail, perhaps by as little as a field goal, and keep pace in the highly competitive NFC South.

Pick: Jets

 
10 of 16

Chicago at Philadelphia (-13.5)

Chicago at Philadelphia (-13.5)
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Eagles keep rolling along, and the way they absolutely buried Dallas in the second half was eye-opening, especially since it happened on the Cowboys' home turf. While Philly's offense has been spectacular, Fletcher Cox and the defense quietly rank seventh in the league in points and yards allowed. A date with the Bears, at home no less, should be a prime opportunity for the Eagles to flex their muscles and get one step closer to locking up the NFC East and turning their sights to home field throughout the playoffs. For Chicago, the focus is really on next year, and on seeing how much Mitch Trubisky can learn on the job. Chicago's only hope is that their defense, which isn't half bad, plays a spectacular game, and that Jordan Howard goes nuts and puts the team on his back. What is much more likely is that Philadelphia continues to roll, and makes this one a laugher in short order.

Pick: Eagles

 
11 of 16

Seattle (-6.5) at San Francisco

Seattle (-6.5) at San Francisco
Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

Seattle's loss against the Falcons hurt, not only because it deprived them of a chance to catch the Rams, but also because it made their position in the NFC playoff race more precarious. A win would have put Seattle in first place in the NFC West for the time being, but the loss dropped them out of post-season position, at least for now. It is imperative for the Seahawks to beat San Francisco, a team that played them very tough earlier this year, because their next three games are against Philly, Jacksonville and the Rams. For their part, the 49ers have to be wondering whether a home date with a wounded Seattle defense might be the right time to see what Jimmy Garoppolo can do. No Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril means that Seattle looks a lot different than they otherwise would, and not having to deal with a raucous Seahawks crowd is also a plus. This game has something of a weird feel to it. Feels like an upset, in fact.

Pick: 49ers

 
12 of 16

Denver at Oakland (-5)

Denver at Oakland (-5)
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Oakland had their chance to make things really interesting in the AFC West, and they blew it. To be fair, "beating New England" isn't exactly the stuff great opportunities are made of, but the Raiders had their shot and couldn't take advantage. Now, if anyone is going to overtake the Chiefs, it feels like it will be the Chargers. The Raiders probably need to win out to win the division, or at most lose one game. They shouldn't fall to Denver, a team that has dramatically underachieved all year, especially lately. However, the Broncos are not without intrigue, as Paxton Lynch will get the nod at quarterback in this one. If he churns out 24 points or more, he'll have bested Denver's output in each of their previous six games, all of them losses. Both teams are bad, but Oakland is better.

Pick: Raiders

 
13 of 16

New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)

New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

This marks two weeks in a row where the Rams will be playing in what is, on paper, the best game of the week. They'll be hoping that some home cooking yields better results than their trip to Minnesota, which saw them score first, then get bottled up for the next three and a half quarters. New Orleans' defense got torn up by Kirk Cousins, but Drew Brees bailed them out with a late rally. The most interesting battle to watch in this one is the Rams' run defense, which stands as their only true weakness, against the Saints' ground attack, which is by some measures the best in the NFL. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have been nothing short of spectacular, and if they're able to get going early, Los Angeles will have to pile up the points to win. Last week's big clash of NFC powers ended up being all about Minnesota's defense. This one will be defined by offense, and plenty of it.

Pick: Saints

 
14 of 16

Jacksonville (-4.5) at Arizona

Jacksonville (-4.5) at Arizona
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Jags didn't exactly impress as heavy favorites against the Browns, sleepwalking through most of the game until a late fumble recovery pushed the final margin into double digits. The Cardinals aren't much better than Cleveland, and were outclassed last week by the relatively anemic Texans. This game being in Arizona means that it might be close, but if the Jaguars stick with the formula they've used all season, they should prevail. One thing that Jags fans should want to see is a little more of an emphatic performance in victory. Blaine Gabbert threw for three touchdowns against Houston, but he also tossed two picks, and should provide plenty of chances for Jacksonville's ball-hawking secondary to show what it can do. Blake Bortles wasn't all that good against Cleveland, but if he could somehow get going and be more of a threat, Doug Marrone's team could roll through most of the rest of the schedule.

Pick: Jaguars

 
15 of 16

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-14)

Green Bay at Pittsburgh (-14)
Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Aaron Rodgers absence proves not only that quarterback is the most valuable position in the league, and that a great player at the position can elevate a team to championship contender status, but also that a truly elite QB can cover up plenty of warts. The Packers are 1-3 without Rodgers, and got shut out and humiliated by Baltimore, a team just about everyone would classify as average at best. Their work is cut out for them against Pittsburgh, who may have finally awakened offensively, exploding for 24 second half points against Tennessee. Ben Roethlisberger thrived early in the no-huddle, and as a result seemed to get his rhythm back more easily later in the game, but he has already insisted that it is up to the coaching staff, specifically Offensive Coordinator Todd Haley and Head Coach Mike Tomlin, to determine whether the no-huddle stays moving forward. Memo to Haley and Tomlin: if you want the offense to thrive, keep some of the hurry-up on the menu.

Pick: Steelers

 
16 of 16

Houston at Baltimore (-7)

Houston at Baltimore (-7)
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Ravens are just, well, just lingering. If the season ended today, Baltimore would somehow be in the playoffs. They've pitched three shutouts so far this year, though in fairness all were against poor offensive teams. Sure, the Ravens' defense is good, but against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Minnesota, three division leaders, they were unable to keep the opposition from tallying at least 24 points, and lost all three games emphatically. Thing of it is, without Deshaun Watson, Houston profiles as much closer to one of the teams the Ravens have shut out than one of the ones that has beaten Baltimore down. If Watson was healthy and playing, the Texans would very possibly be favored, and the Ravens would likely lose. He's not, so Baltimore is not only favored, but they'll also win--and continue to linger.

Pick: Ravens

Chris Mueller is the co-host of The PM Team with Poni & Mueller on Pittsburgh's 93.7 The Fan, Monday-Friday from 2-6 p.m. ET. Owner of a dog with a Napoleon complex, consumer of beer, cooker of chili, closet Cleveland Browns fan. On Twitter at @ChrisMuellerPGH – please laugh.

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