NFL Week 16: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: New York -2

Jacksonville still has work to do – though suddenly, thanks to the Titans’ loss, that work seems more realistic – in order to win the AFC South, but even though Doug Pederson’s team looks maybe a year away from being truly scary, they’re a handful right now. Trevor Lawrence is playing with a ton of confidence, and as a result, no deficit seems insurmountable. If the defense can continue to make gradual progress, this team will rule the division for a long time. The Jets aren’t having as much luck with the guy taken one spot after Lawrence. Zach Wilson did hit a few huge plays and threw for 317 yards against the Lions, but Detroit’s defense is terrible, and Wilson couldn’t deliver a kill shot. That said, New York’s defense didn’t help themselves late, and it’s a pretty bad look to get fooled as completely as they did on Detroit’s winning touchdown.

Look smart to your friends:

-Lawrence has been on fire for Jacksonville’s last six games. In that stretch, the team is 4-2, and he’s thrown 15 touchdowns and just 1 interception.

-Garrett Wilson isn’t just the gold standard among rookie wide receivers; he’s upper-echelon at the position overall. He’s looking for his fifth game in a row with 75+ receiving yards, and his current streak is the longest active one in the NFL.

The pick: Jaguars 21 Jets 16

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -8

The Bills got themselves a gut-check win over Miami in conditions that were far more benign than what some were forecasting. Buffalo likely would have had an easier time of it had the game been a snowy mess, but to their credit, they responded to a 29-21 fourth-quarter deficit with two clutch, lengthy drives to tie the game, then win it. However, it becomes more readily apparent by the week that this is a two-man offense: Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Okay, maybe there’s some Dawson Knox thrown in. Chicago’s formula of late is basically this: Justin Fields does cool stuff that makes fans happy and excited for the future, and the team keeps losing, thus ensuring that the team will have a top-five pick with which to augment the roster around Fields. Truth be told, that seems like a pretty good combination. A shrewd offseason will have this team competing sooner rather than later.

Look smart to your friends:

-After seemingly getting phased out of the game plan, Knox has rebounded in recent weeks. He had a season-high 98 yards against Miami and is going for his third-straight game with a touchdown catch.

-Fields has 50+ rushing yards in eight straight games and can tie Lamar Jackson (9 straight, 2019) for the longest streak of that kind in NFL history.

The pick: Bills 31 Bears 24

TV: CBS            LINE: Cleveland -3

Andy Dalton, Taysom Hill, and New Orleans jumped all over the Falcons early, then hung on for dear life as Atlanta attempted to mount a comeback. The Saints kind of are what they are; a team with mediocre offense, mediocre defense, and a mediocre record to match. That’s why it’s all the more ridiculous that we have to take them seriously as a playoff contender, still. This is not a playoff team. They do not deserve to be there. Hopefully, they won’t be. The Browns played themselves some defense against the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens last week, grinding out a win while still waiting for the old version of Deshaun Watson to show up. Watson looked more like a game manager than anything, but he did manage things well enough, and Cleveland took total control of the game in the second half, despite a few missed field goals from Cade York. Cleveland won’t make the postseason, but they should be a tough spoiler.

Look smart to your friends:

-Alvin Kamara needs just 9 catches to pass Roger Craig (434) for the most catches by a running back in his first six seasons in NFL history.

-Watson has a limited history with the NFC South, but in his four previous starts against the division, he has a 107.5 passer rating.

The pick: Browns 26 Saints 14

TV: CBS            LINE: Tennessee -3

How many weeks in a row am I supposed to figure out something new to write about the Texans? They still haven’t sealed up the top pick in next year’s draft, and they played the Chiefs tough last week, so…good for them? Lovie Smith has these guys playing hard, an enormous credit to him as a coach, and they keep managing to come up just short, so really, he’s playing this perfectly. Tennessee gave a valiant effort against the Chargers, and Ryan Tannehill battled on a bum ankle, but this looks like a football team bottoming out at the wrong time, and now Tannehill looks done for the year. The Titans looked like a near lock to win the division a month ago, and now they find themselves a mere game ahead of hard-charging Jacksonville, and the Jaguars already have a head-to-head win in the season series. Luckily for Tennessee, this game should be a near-certain win; if it isn’t, forget about winning the division, they’ll be lucky to have a winning season.

Look smart to your friends:

-He’s been mentioned several times in this section, but Jalen Pitre continues to have a very good rookie year. He leads all rookies with 117 tackles and is the third Texans rookie ever with 100+ tackles.

-I would say it’s safe to assume Derrick Henry will have a massive game: He’s got 200+ scrimmage yards and 2+ rushing touchdowns in each of his last four games against Houston. He’s also the first player ever with 150+ rushing yards in four straight games against the same opponent.

The pick: Titans 24 Texans 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Kansas City -10

Seattle, like Tennessee, is leaking oil at the wrong time. There’s no shame in losing to the 49ers, of course, even with Brock Purdy manning quarterback for San Francisco, but Seattle is starting to face questions that Geno Smith alone can’t answer. A major problem is the total lack of a running game; the Seahawks haven’t run for 100 yards as a team since way back in Week 9. They’ll need to figure out a way to fix that because even with the season Smith is having, he can’t win a shootout with Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City was pretty sloppy against the Texans, trailing at the half and after three quarters until finally forcing overtime and then getting the win on a Jerick McKinnon run after a Houston fumble. Patrick Mahomes’ numbers were good, and the Chiefs piled up yardage, but they couldn’t put away the Texans earlier in part because of two lost fumbles. Kansas City looks like the AFC’s best team, but they are hardly unbeatable.

Look smart to your friends:

-D.K. Metcalf’s name doesn’t really get mentioned as one of the league’s truly elite receivers, but he’s one of just five to have 75+ receptions and 900+ receiving yards in each of the last three seasons.

-The Chiefs have already clinched their seventh-straight AFC West title, tied with the 1973-1979 Los Angeles Rams for the second-longest streak of division titles in NFL history.

The pick: Chiefs 35 Seahawks 30

TV: FOX            LINE: Minnesota -4.5

It was not the prettiest affair, but the Giants got a crucial win over Washington, thanks partly to a questionable non-call for pass interference on Washington’s final play. Aside from that, New York delivered a workmanlike effort to get the win, stifling the Commanders with a combination of bend-but-don’t-break defense and timely takeaways, including Kayvon Thibodeaux’s scoop-and-score. The offense didn’t do much, but it was just enough, and now New York is in the driver’s seat for a playoff berth. Down 33-0 to the Colts at the half, the Vikings looked dead and buried…and then The Comeback happened. Kirk Cousins and Minnesota outscored Indy 39-3 the rest of the way to notch the biggest comeback in NFL history, knocking the Bills’ 1993 playoff epic over the Oilers out of the top spot. What the rally shouldn’t obscure is the fact that, by lots of objective measures, the Vikings aren’t actually a very good team. Which, you know, the first half kind of proved.

Look smart to your friends:

-Thibodeaux had 12 tackles (a career-high), 3 tackles for loss, also a career-high, plus a sack, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery touchdown against the Commanders. That’s not some insider stat, just his box score. Felt like everyone should see it.

-Cousins takes plenty of criticism, particularly from people like me. But I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that he needs just one touchdown pass to become the fifth player ever with 25+ touchdown passes in eight straight seasons.

The pick: Vikings 20 Giants 17

TV: CBS           LINE: Cincinnati -3

I won’t be dramatic and say there was a changing of the guard among the league’s elite quarterbacks, but I think we can safely say that Tom Brady is no longer the boogeyman, as if three-quarters of a season of very average play wasn’t evidence enough. Joe Burrow and the Bengals got down 17-0, then proceeded to steamroll Tampa Bay in the second half. Cincy scored 34 straight points, and all Tampa Bay could manage was a cosmetic touchdown in the game’s final minute. The defending AFC champs look scary. New England also looks scary, but in the “oh my god, this team is horrifying for their fans to watch.” What else is there to say about the Pats’ loss to the Raiders? Rhamondre Stevenson and Jakobi Meyers combined to create one of the worst plays in league history, and poor Mac Jones had to eat an unholy stiff arm, to boot. The loss will probably end up keeping the Pats out of the playoffs, giving Bill Belichick plenty of time to find an offensive coordinator who isn’t, you know, a defensive coordinator.

Look smart to your friends:

-Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are both on the verge of franchise milestones. Burrow can join Carson Palmer as the only Cincy quarterback with back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons if he throws for 115 yards, and Chase needs just 119 receiving yards to join A.J. Green as the only receivers in franchise history with 1,000 yards in each of their first two seasons.

-Who leads the NFL with 10.5 sacks since Week 8? If you said the Pats’ Josh Uche, please come and claim your prize now.

The pick: Bengals 26 Patriots 17

TV: FOX            LINE: Detroit -2.5

The Lions got held in check by a tough, battle-tested Jets defense, but when push came to shove, Detroit made a monster play to win the game. The winning play revealed these Lions to be everything previous iterations of the team were not; calm, composed, and able to execute in the biggest moments. It seems unlikely that the Seahawks will run the table, so if Detroit can get three more victories in a row, they’ll be in and make history as the first team to start 1-6 and make the playoffs. Not that I’m openly rooting for it or anything (I am). The Panthers got bullied by Pittsburgh, particularly the Steelers’ defensive line. After establishing a nice little ground game over the previous month and getting 223 yards on the ground last week against Seattle, the Panthers had just 21 rushing yards on 16 carries. Sam Darnold made a few nice plays downfield, but if Carolina is going to emerge as the class of the wretched NFC South, they’ll have to do it on the ground.

Look smart to your friends:

-James Houston became the third rookie since 1982 (Santana Dotson and Terrell Suggs are the others) with a sack in each of his first four career games.

-D.J. Moore has historically carved up the Lions’ defense. He’s looking for his third game in a row against Detroit with 7+ catches and 125+ receiving yards.

The pick: Lions 28 Panthers 24

TV: FOX            LINE: Baltimore -7.5

It’s fully Desmond Ridder time in Atlanta, though the rookie didn’t do much of anything in his debut. That’s not tremendously surprising, of course, and the Falcons, if they’re going to win the drunk pillow fight that is the NFC South, will need to do so on the ground. To that end, Tyler Allgeier ripped off 139 yards against the Saints but running the ball figures to be a more difficult proposition against the Ravens, who are third in the league in yards per carry against. Baltimore’s got their own problems coming into this game, however. Lamar Jackson still isn’t practicing as of this writing, which means it might be another Tyler Huntley game. As long as Jackson is out, the Ravens will be vulnerable, even against a team with as many flaws as the Falcons. Without his star quarterback, John Harbaugh has no option other than to try and win ugly, a proposition that always carries with it minimal margin for error.

Look smart to your friends:

-Let’s give it up for Richie Grant. The Falcons’ safety ranks third among NFC defensive backs with 96 tackles, already a career-high.

-The Ravens’ receivers always catch flack – not so much touchdowns – so let’s be kind to one of them for once. Demarcus Robinson needs just 6 catches for his first 50-catch season. Good job!

The pick: Ravens 17 Falcons 12

TV: CBS            LINE: San Francisco -7

Is the bloom starting to come off the Taylor Heinicke rose? Ron Rivera suggested that it might be, giving his starter a lukewarm vote of confidence and suggesting that he’s got a pretty short leash moving forward. If the coach is actively considering going to Carson Wentz for a spark late in the season, you know things aren’t going great. They probably won’t get much better this week because while Washington’s defensive line might slow down San Francisco, their offense can’t be counted on to do much. The Niners ground down the Seahawks on the road Thursday night, a performance that was impressive for a variety of reasons: Brock Purdy continued to look unbothered, Christian McCaffrey was a bell cow, and the defense kept Geno Smith from doing much of anything all game long. Oh, and San Francisco did it all without Deebo Samuel. If this isn’t the best team in the NFC, it’s the one I’d least want my favorite team to face in the playoffs.

Look smart to your friends:

-Jahan Dotson posted a career-high 105 receiving yards last week, his first career 100-yard game. He’s also second among rookies with 6 touchdown catches this year.

-George Kittle’s 93-yard performance last week made him just the sixth tight end in league history to post 5,000+ receiving yards in his first six career seasons.

The pick: 49ers 24 Commanders 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Dallas -5

Jalen Hurts is hurt, you might have heard. The Eagles are being coy about the severity of his injury, but having Gardner Minshew around makes it less likely that Nick Sirianni elects to push the limits of his star quarterback’s health. Philly needs just one win in its last three games to lock up home-field throughout the NFC playoffs, so it stands to reason that they’d rest Hurts for this game and possibly the rest of the regular season if Minnesota loses this week to the Giants. The Cowboys are a fun group to try and pin down. One game, they’re obliterating the Colts with an insane fourth quarter, the next week, they’re barely surviving the Texans; and the following week they’re blowing a 17-point lead to Jacksonville and losing in soul-draining fashion in overtime. The one thing I can say with certainty about Dallas is that they could lose horribly in the first round of the playoffs or go all the way, and neither outcome would really shock me.

Look smart to your friends:

-Haason Reddick is both disruptive and opportunistic. The Philly linebacker is the only player in the NFL with 3+ forced fumbles and 3+ fumble recoveries in 2022.

-Micah Parsons last week became the third player since 1982 (Aldon Smith and Reggie White) with 13+ sacks in each of his first two seasons.

The pick: Eagles 30 Cowboys 28

TV: NFL NETWORK            LINE: Pittsburgh -2.5

Las Vegas has had so many comical losses this year that it’s probably right and just that they finally got to be on the good end of a ridiculous meltdown. No one knows what would have happened in overtime, and the Raiders might have been lucky to be tied, given the controversial nature of their tying touchdown, but they didn’t have to find out thanks to perhaps the dumbest play in NFL history. The Raiders need a ton of help to make the playoffs, but at least they’ll be able to talk about last week’s win for years to come. On a somber, melancholy note, the entire city of Pittsburgh will approach this game with mourning hearts after Franco Harris passed away suddenly early Wednesday morning. The game was to be a celebration of his career, complete with a formal number retirement ceremony. Look for the Steelers to try and do Harris’ memory proud by running the ball right at the Raiders, early and often.

Look smart to your friends:

-The Raiders have been uneven this year, but Derek Carr has been productive; he has 10 games with 2+ touchdown passes, tied for the second-most in the NFL.

-Najee Harris needs just 45 scrimmage yards to join Le’Veon Bell as the only players in franchise history with 1,000+ scrimmage yards in each of their first two seasons.

The pick: Raiders 27 Steelers 21

TV: FOX            LINE: Miami -3.5

Sure feels like you’ve got to give an assist to the cold weather when it comes to Green Bay’s win over Los Angeles. Well, that and the fact that Baker Mayfield crashing back to earth after his shocking, euphoric Rams debut was something everyone could see coming a mile away. The Packers, like virtually the entirety of the NFC, can still make the playoffs, but they’d need plenty of assistance. And be honest, do you really want to see them in? I surely don’t. Miami gave a good accounting of themselves in the cold and snow in Buffalo, but there are no moral victories when you’ve lost three in a row. The Dolphins need to get back in the south Florida sun and get a rhythm going again with their offense, which started to come on in the second half against Buffalo. What they could really use is any semblance of defense whatsoever because they’ve given up 88 points in these three losses, as well as 1,229 yards of offense.

Look smart to your friends:

-Linebacker Quay Walker is having a huge rookie season; he’s the only player in the league with 100+ tackles and 3 forced fumbles this season and is the only rookie with 14 games of 5+ tackles.

-Tyreek Hill scored his 75 ^th-career touchdown last week, tied with Hall of Famer Lance Alworth for the third-most ever by a wide receiver in his first seven seasons.

The pick: Dolphins 23 Packers 21

TV: CBS            LINE: Denver -3

Oh woof. The Broncos are not a fun team, as you know if you’ve been reading these picks every week, so I don’t want to give them all that much credit for beating perhaps the only more depressing bunch in the NFL. I don’t know, what is there to say about these guys? Latavius Murray had a nice day against Arizona, so bully for him, and Russell Wilson will be back starting, so…cool? The Rams are also not a fun team, but what I will say for them is that I still want to see more Baker Mayfield. The Green Bay game was rough but also predictable (please ignore, at this point, the fact that I picked L.A. to cover), and I think Mayfield will be motivated to put up some good numbers in the hopes that it lands him a contract somewhere. Given the news that Matthew Stafford intends to keep playing, it seems that Mayfield’s current home won’t be his long-term one.

Look smart to your friends:

-Fun, strange stat about Murray; he’s the only player in the NFL with 4+ rushing touchdowns in each of the past eight seasons.

-Jalen Ramsey has continued to play stellar football even during a lost season; he’s the only player in the league with 75+ tackles and 10+ passes defensed in each of the past two seasons.

The pick: Rams 9 Broncos 6

TV: NBC            LINE: Tampa Bay -7.5

Gotta say, it’s unusual watching the roof cave in on a Tom Brady-led team, but that’s exactly what happened against the Bengals. Last week’s loss marked the first time in Brady’s career that he lost a home game when leading by 17+ points. He had previously been 89-0 in such situations. That’s bad enough, but the fact that the game wasn’t even close down the stretch was even more jarring. Tampa Bay just totally fell apart, and Brady’s interceptions didn’t help. That said…these guys are your NFC South leaders! Hey, Cardinals fans – guess what? I refuse to write anything about your team. I’m very sorry. They need to fire everyone. It would really be best for all involved. Watching this team all year would make me hate professional football.

Look smart to your friends:

-Brady has most of the relevant quarterbacking records there are to have, and with 103 passing yards, he’ll tie Peyton Manning for the most career 4,000-yard seasons with 14.

-J.J. Watt is having a productive year in an otherwise hellish season; he needs just a half-sack to post his sixth-career 10+ sack season.

The pick: Buccaneers 24 Cardinals 9

TV: ESPN            LINE: Los Angeles -5

I for one think that the Chargers deserve plenty of credit for not suffering what would have been a very Charger-y loss to the Titans, and instead finding a way to eke out a victory in the waning seconds. Los Angeles merely needs to keep winning to stay ensconced as the AFC’s second wild card. Shouldn’t be that tough, right? Particularly with all of their talent. That sound you heard as you read those last few sentences was the mournful collective wail of Bolts fans who know that this team specializes in failing to meet expectations. As for Indianapolis, do I really need to say anything? Shouldn’t I just post this , and call it a day? Nick Foles is starting, so that’s something, I guess. You might say I did only half the work on this game preview, but then again, so did the Colts.

Look smart to your friends:

-Justin Herbert hasn’t been to the playoffs yet, but he can lay claim as the only quarterback in league history with 4,000+ passing yards in each of his first three seasons.

-Zaire Franklin continues to do a great job filling in for the injured Shaquille Leonard; he has 140 tackles this year, good for fourth in the NFL.

The pick: Chargers 34 Colts 21