Originally written on isportsweb.com  |  Last updated 9/27/13
In case you missed it, I’ve just introduced sabermetrics to fantasy football. The format is easy enough: I calculate who the highest risk players are for the week, then figure out who the highest reward guys are. Factoring in both risk and reward, an overall value is calculated, with the ideal player being low risk and high reward. The math factors in carries, fantasy points, matchup and a slew of other things, but the numbers are simple. The higher the score, the better. A high-risk guy will have a very low risk score, while a low-risk player will have a high risk score. Meanwhile, a low reward will give that player a low reward score while a high reward will produce a high number. My system is based on half PPR to try and please both PPR and non-PPR players, and the highest risk players are among the top 50 or so RBs. There may be higher risk guys outside the top 50, but I’m hoping you aren’t starting them anyway. I’ve also made a few adjustments with the risk players to account for draft position. For example, the third riskiest RB this week is Ronnie Brown, but doesn’t everyone know that already? The highest reward and overall players are among the top 50, no adjustments. I’ve spent hours in the lab crunching numbers, and here’s what I got for week four running backs. Wilson has turned fantasy football teams upside down with his poor play Highest risk 1. David Wilson (-8.55) 2. C.J. Spiller (-0.36) 3. Jacquizz Rodgers (1.01) 4. Giovani Bernard (1.14) 5. Jason Snelling (1.46) 6. Ronnie Hillman (1.68) 7. Danny Woodhead (1.80) 8. Da’Rel Scott (1.81) 9. Lamar Miller (2.19) 10. Bernard Pierce (4.38) 11. Daniel Thomas (4.67) 12. Reggie Bush (5.07) 13. Ben Tate (5.70) 14. Joique Bell (5.77) 15. Ahmad Bradshaw (6.41) Highest reward 1. Adrian Peterson (49.50) 2. Marshawn Lynch (49.35) 3. DeMarco Murray (41.61) 4. Jamaal Charles (33.90) 5. Ray Rice (33.63) 6. Matt Forte (32.87) 7. C.J. Spiller (31.58) 8. Maurice Jones-Drew (30.54) 9. Knowshon Moreno (30.35) 10. Doug Martin (29.57) 11. LeSean McCoy (29.47) 12. Bernard Pierce (28.25) 13. Bilal Powell (27.93) 14. Reggie Bush (27.43) 15. Arian Foster (26.38) Overall value Forte has been Mr. consistency this year, making him a nice play against the Lions 1. Adrian Peterson (65) 2. Matt Forte (63) 3. Marshawn Lynch (58) 4. Jamaal Charles (57) 5. DeMarco Murray (56) 6. Doug Martin (54) 7. LeSean McCoy (53) 8. Darren McFadden (44) 9. Ray Rice (42) 10. Bilal Powell (41) 11. Trent Richardson (39) 12. Chris Johnson (38) 13. Maurice Jones-Drew (38) 14. Knowshon Moreno (38) 15. Pierre Thomas (34) 16. Rashard Mendenhall (33) 17. Arian Foster (33) 18. Ahmad Bradshaw (33) 19. Bernard Pierce (33) 20. Reggie Bush (33) 21. Ryan Mathews (32) 22. C.J. Spiller (31) 23. Darren Sproles (30) 24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (29) 25. Fred Jackson (26)   Follow me on twitter @ScottPeceny for more fantasy football sabermetrics
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