Originally posted on isportsweb.com  |  Last updated 9/27/13
In case you missed it, I’ve just introduced sabermetrics to fantasy football. The format is easy enough: I calculate who the highest risk players are for the week, then figure out who the highest reward guys are. Factoring in both risk and reward, an overall value is calculated, with the ideal player being low risk and high reward. The math factors in carries, fantasy points, matchup and a slew of other things, but the numbers are simple. The higher the score, the better. A high-risk guy will have a very low risk score, while a low-risk player will have a high risk score. Meanwhile, a low reward will give that player a low reward score while a high reward will produce a high number. My system is based on half PPR to try and please both PPR and non-PPR players, and the highest risk players are among the top 50 or so RBs. There may be higher risk guys outside the top 50, but I’m hoping you aren’t starting them anyway. I’ve also made a few adjustments with the risk players to account for draft position. For example, the third riskiest RB this week is Ronnie Brown, but doesn’t everyone know that already? The highest reward and overall players are among the top 50, no adjustments. I’ve spent hours in the lab crunching numbers, and here’s what I got for week four running backs. Wilson has turned fantasy football teams upside down with his poor play Highest risk 1. David Wilson (-8.55) 2. C.J. Spiller (-0.36) 3. Jacquizz Rodgers (1.01) 4. Giovani Bernard (1.14) 5. Jason Snelling (1.46) 6. Ronnie Hillman (1.68) 7. Danny Woodhead (1.80) 8. Da’Rel Scott (1.81) 9. Lamar Miller (2.19) 10. Bernard Pierce (4.38) 11. Daniel Thomas (4.67) 12. Reggie Bush (5.07) 13. Ben Tate (5.70) 14. Joique Bell (5.77) 15. Ahmad Bradshaw (6.41) Highest reward 1. Adrian Peterson (49.50) 2. Marshawn Lynch (49.35) 3. DeMarco Murray (41.61) 4. Jamaal Charles (33.90) 5. Ray Rice (33.63) 6. Matt Forte (32.87) 7. C.J. Spiller (31.58) 8. Maurice Jones-Drew (30.54) 9. Knowshon Moreno (30.35) 10. Doug Martin (29.57) 11. LeSean McCoy (29.47) 12. Bernard Pierce (28.25) 13. Bilal Powell (27.93) 14. Reggie Bush (27.43) 15. Arian Foster (26.38) Overall value Forte has been Mr. consistency this year, making him a nice play against the Lions 1. Adrian Peterson (65) 2. Matt Forte (63) 3. Marshawn Lynch (58) 4. Jamaal Charles (57) 5. DeMarco Murray (56) 6. Doug Martin (54) 7. LeSean McCoy (53) 8. Darren McFadden (44) 9. Ray Rice (42) 10. Bilal Powell (41) 11. Trent Richardson (39) 12. Chris Johnson (38) 13. Maurice Jones-Drew (38) 14. Knowshon Moreno (38) 15. Pierre Thomas (34) 16. Rashard Mendenhall (33) 17. Arian Foster (33) 18. Ahmad Bradshaw (33) 19. Bernard Pierce (33) 20. Reggie Bush (33) 21. Ryan Mathews (32) 22. C.J. Spiller (31) 23. Darren Sproles (30) 24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (29) 25. Fred Jackson (26)   Follow me on twitter @ScottPeceny for more fantasy football sabermetrics

This article first appeared on isportsweb.com and was syndicated with permission.

Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

DeMarcus Cousins traded to Pelicans for players, picks

West teammates hilariously celebrate Durant and Westbrook oop

Report: Romo willing to rework contract to facilitate trade

Lonzo Ball's father says son is better than Curry right now

Report: Rams could have interest in Cousins if Goff flops


Mike Trout talks about 'frustrating' struggles of Angels

Report: Butler to Celtics talk will loom over All-Star week

Report: Carmelo expects to remain with Knicks

James Harden: ‘For sure’ I’m the best player in the world

Report: Pats expected to make good effort to keep Bennett

Glenn Robinson III dunks over three people to win Slam Dunk Contest

Too much to Process: Can Simmons match the Embiid hype?

Is the NBA All-Star Game worth saving?

There will never be another Dirk Nowitzki

The Rewind: Michael Jordan's last All-Star Game

Best of Yardbarker: NBA All-Star Games past, present and future

Eat, Drink, Watch: Everything goes better with a side of New Orleans

The 'Michael Jordan might still win the Dunk contest if he entered' quiz

How to reboot NBA All-Star Weekend

Second-year NBA stars who can salvage the season

Observations from a day at the Westminster Kennel Club Dog Show

Box Score 2/17: Happy birthday, Michael Jordan (and welcome to 1000 point club, Sid!)

Box Score 2/16: Getting ready for the ASG

NFL News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

QUIZ: Name every MLB pitcher with 200 or more wins since 1961

Best of YB: NBA All-Star Games past, present and future

Who will break these NBA All-Star Game records?

Is the NBA All-Star Game worth saving?

There will never be another Dirk Nowitzki

The Rewind: Michael Jordan's last All-Star Game

Eat, Drink, Watch: Everything goes better with a side of New Orleans

How to reboot NBA All-Star Weekend

Baseball movies you can stream now to hold you over until Opening Day

Second-year NBA stars who can salvage the season

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker