Originally written on isportsweb.com  |  Last updated 9/27/13
In case you missed it, I’ve just introduced sabermetrics to fantasy football. The format is easy enough: I calculate who the highest risk players are for the week, then figure out who the highest reward guys are. Factoring in both risk and reward, an overall value is calculated, with the ideal player being low risk and high reward. The math factors in carries, fantasy points, matchup and a slew of other things, but the numbers are simple. The higher the score, the better. A high-risk guy will have a very low risk score, while a low-risk player will have a high risk score. Meanwhile, a low reward will give that player a low reward score while a high reward will produce a high number. My system is based on half PPR to try and please both PPR and non-PPR players, and the highest risk players are among the top 50 or so RBs. There may be higher risk guys outside the top 50, but I’m hoping you aren’t starting them anyway. I’ve also made a few adjustments with the risk players to account for draft position. For example, the third riskiest RB this week is Ronnie Brown, but doesn’t everyone know that already? The highest reward and overall players are among the top 50, no adjustments. I’ve spent hours in the lab crunching numbers, and here’s what I got for week four running backs. Wilson has turned fantasy football teams upside down with his poor play Highest risk 1. David Wilson (-8.55) 2. C.J. Spiller (-0.36) 3. Jacquizz Rodgers (1.01) 4. Giovani Bernard (1.14) 5. Jason Snelling (1.46) 6. Ronnie Hillman (1.68) 7. Danny Woodhead (1.80) 8. Da’Rel Scott (1.81) 9. Lamar Miller (2.19) 10. Bernard Pierce (4.38) 11. Daniel Thomas (4.67) 12. Reggie Bush (5.07) 13. Ben Tate (5.70) 14. Joique Bell (5.77) 15. Ahmad Bradshaw (6.41) Highest reward 1. Adrian Peterson (49.50) 2. Marshawn Lynch (49.35) 3. DeMarco Murray (41.61) 4. Jamaal Charles (33.90) 5. Ray Rice (33.63) 6. Matt Forte (32.87) 7. C.J. Spiller (31.58) 8. Maurice Jones-Drew (30.54) 9. Knowshon Moreno (30.35) 10. Doug Martin (29.57) 11. LeSean McCoy (29.47) 12. Bernard Pierce (28.25) 13. Bilal Powell (27.93) 14. Reggie Bush (27.43) 15. Arian Foster (26.38) Overall value Forte has been Mr. consistency this year, making him a nice play against the Lions 1. Adrian Peterson (65) 2. Matt Forte (63) 3. Marshawn Lynch (58) 4. Jamaal Charles (57) 5. DeMarco Murray (56) 6. Doug Martin (54) 7. LeSean McCoy (53) 8. Darren McFadden (44) 9. Ray Rice (42) 10. Bilal Powell (41) 11. Trent Richardson (39) 12. Chris Johnson (38) 13. Maurice Jones-Drew (38) 14. Knowshon Moreno (38) 15. Pierre Thomas (34) 16. Rashard Mendenhall (33) 17. Arian Foster (33) 18. Ahmad Bradshaw (33) 19. Bernard Pierce (33) 20. Reggie Bush (33) 21. Ryan Mathews (32) 22. C.J. Spiller (31) 23. Darren Sproles (30) 24. BenJarvus Green-Ellis (29) 25. Fred Jackson (26)   Follow me on twitter @ScottPeceny for more fantasy football sabermetrics
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

Adrian Peterson accused of fathering another child out of wedlock

Robert Griffin III liked fan’s Instagram post trashing Redskins

Report: Tom Brady may have been ‘open’ to one-game suspension

Fenway Park staff reportedly confiscating Don Orsillo signs

Clippers’ owner Steve Ballmer betting on himself

Titans' Marcus Mariota: ‘Statistics don’t matter to me’

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Raiders cut Trent Richardson

FSU names Everett Golson starting QB for 2015

UCLA's Adams arrested for suspicion of felony robbery

AJ Green heading for contract stalemate with Bengals?

Report: NFL offered to cut Brady suspension to 3 games

Report: Tristan Thompson won’t take below max from Cavs

Most surprising developments from 2015 NFL preseason

Herschel Walker supports Trump’s candidacy for president

WATCH: Kevin Kiermaier robs Manny Machado home run shot

Four most surprising roster cuts from NFL teams

Caroline Wozniacki smoking on cover of ‘Rhapsody’ magazine

Could Robert Griffin III be the NFL’s next Steve Young?

Spurrier: SEC fans right to be upset with Ohio State's schedule

Report: 'Deranged' fan shot outside WWE building

Report: Brady convinced Harbaugh to return to Michigan

Ronda Rousey gets Venice mural from artist Jonas Never

Redskins TE wants to know who's leaking stories to ESPN

WWE superstar's girlfriend fired over Nazi Instagram posts

Madison Bumgarner has once again put Giants on his back

NFL News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Four most surprising roster cuts from NFL teams

Raiders cut Trent Richardson

Caroline Wozniacki smoking cover of ‘Rhapsody’

Everett Golson named FSU's starting QB

Urban Meyer won't announce QB before season

Teammates relieved RG3 was benched?

Five NFL teams that should trade for Robert Griffin III

10 takeaways from Week 3 of the NFL preseason

Cubs' Jake Arrieta no-hits the Dodgers

Chicago Bears release Tim Jennings

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker