As the Denver Broncos emerge from their Week 11 bye, the offense is focused on scoring more points. Or, more specifically, capitalizing on trips inside the opponent's 20-yard line.
As it stands, only three teams are worse than the Broncos in the red zone. Currently ranked No. 29 in red-zone efficiency, the Broncos are punching it in for a touchdown on only 50% of trips inside the 20.
Playing in a league where offensive football has proliferated, that's not going to cut the mustard especially against a Los Angeles Chargers squad that is scoring on 61.4% of its red-zone trips, averaging nearly a touchdown more in points than the Broncos.
One game removed from QBs coach Mike Shula having to call the plays on gameday, offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, fresh off the reserve/COVID-19 list which saw him miss the team's Week 10 loss to Philadelphia, sounds like a guy who knows that if the Broncos don't improve in the red area, the current 5-5 record in the standings will quickly devolve into sub-.500 territory.
“Unfortunately, it didn’t work out or didn’t go our way last week, but prior to that we’ve been—in the last month or so I think we’ve done a much better job in the red zone when we got down there getting points," Shurmur said on Thursday. "I think that’s the important thing—it’s about points. You always talk about whether you run it, whether you throw it, all that, but ultimately, we’ve been able to drive the ball. I guess for the people that like to crunch numbers [it’s] way up there in terms of the time of possession and moving the ball, but the devil is in the details. At the end there, you’ve got to get it in.”
Technically, Shurmur's not wrong about the "much better job" in the red zone leading into Week 10. From Weeks 7-9, the Broncos punched it in on 6-of-7 red-zone trips (85.7%). But counting the Philadelphia Eagles loss, the Broncos have scored a touchdown on just 7-of-12 trips inside the 20 over the last four games.
Obviously, that's not good enough. One of the reasons Denver's red-zone possessions have been so few and far between is because of the offense's absolutely horrendous third-down efficiency. Sub-optimal execution? For sure. But it's also a clear indicator of poor Xs and Os design and the result of being too transparent and predictable.
Only four teams are worse on third down than the Broncos, who currently move the chains just 34.7% of the time on the 'money down.' Shurmur talks about time of possession, and while it's true that the Broncos rank No. 9 in this department averaging 31:34 miper game, it's all for naught if you can't move the chains on third down and punch it in when you get inside the 20.
The Broncos draw a 27th-ranked scoring defense this week in the Chargers, and coming off a bye, if Shurmur's unit can't figure out how to manufacture first downs and points on Sunday, it'll be a harbinger for how the remainder of the team's stretch run will play out.
“I think every week we talk about how good the defenses are that we face, and we’ve just got to go battle," Shurmur said. "I think we’ve got some players and we’ve had spurts where we’ve done a really good job of moving the ball and scoring points. We’ve just got to do it and I think that’s the challenge each week.”
Doesn't Shurmur sound like a coordinator dangerously close to the I'm-out-of-ideas precipice? The Broncos are running out of time to turn the ship around and if the best predictor of future production is past production, the writing might already be on the wall for Shurmur — and head coach Vic Fangio for that matter.
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