The Athletics’ stunning decision to let manager Bob Melvin leave to sign a three-year deal as the Padres’ new manager served as a portent for a bleak winter in Oakland, only increasing prior expectations that a payroll reduction was on the horizon.
General manager David Forst spoke with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and others at this week’s GM Meetings, and while he didn’t outright say that the team plans to reduce its bottom line in 2022, he implied that another “step back” is certainly a possibility.
“I think right now we’re in the middle of those conversations with [ownership],” said Forst. “We don’t have exact direction yet. But you look at our history, and we have three- or four-year runs and recognize where we are makes it necessary to step back. But we have not gotten to that point yet with ownership.”
While Forst understandably sidestepped a definitive declaration on the team’s payroll direction, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that a pair of MLB executives told him Oakland is expected to slash payroll to as little as $50M. One potential wrinkle as the A’s look to cut payroll, writes Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, is the uncertainty surrounding the collective bargaining agreement. The league’s initial offer to the MLBPA included a proposed salary floor (in exchange for a reduction of the luxury tax threshold — a nonstarter for the players’ side of negotiations). Even though the MLBPA had no interest in the specifics of that particular proposal, the eventual possibility of a salary floor could come back to haunt the A’s if they gut the payroll early in the winter.
One way or another, it seems quite likely that the current Athletics’ core is going to be broken up this offseason — the question is to what extent rather than whether it’ll happen at all. Such an outcome wasn’t exactly difficult to foresee. I explored back in early September how the A’s were unlikely to be able to afford a deep, talented arbitration class after projected raises to the likes of Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas (among others). Retaining that group would require an increase over their 2021 levels of spending — and that’s before making any additions to the 2022 roster.
When looking for trade candidates on the Oakland roster, the top of that arbitration class is the most obvious place to begin. At $12M, Olson leads the bunch in terms of expected salary, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s end-of-year projections. Each of Manaea ($10.2M), Chapman ($9.5M), Bassitt ($8.8M) and Montas ($5.2M) is also set to account for a notable portion of the team’s payroll next season.
The A’s would surely be open to moving outfielder Stephen Piscotty (still owed $8.25M, including a 2023 option buyout) and shortstop Elvis Andrus ($7.25M through 2022 after accounting for the portion of his salary paid by the Rangers). Neither player has much in the way of trade value at this point, however. Oakland currently projects for a payroll just north of $85M, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure includes MLBTR’s projected arb salaries, the two guaranteed contracts and a slate of pre-arb salaries to round out the roster.
Olson, Chapman and Montas all have two years of club control remaining. Manaea and Bassitt are set to become free agents next winter. While it’s possible, if not likely, that other players on the Oakland roster will also see their names pop up in trade talks, that quintet offers the best blend of productivity, affordability (for other clubs) and trade value (for the A’s). Here’s a quick, high-level look at each:
The asking price on those players, and others, will vary based on expected earnings and remaining club control. It’s not a given that the A’s trade all five, of course, and it’s possible that even as they do make some changes on the roster, some of those dollars are reallocated to low-cost free agents.
In past trades of notable players, the A’s have tended to focus on upper-level prospects and young big leaguers who’ve yet to establish themselves rather than the lower-level types often targeted by teams commencing full teardowns. That’s not a guaranteed blueprint for how they’ll operate this winter, but the focus on near-term assets is part of the reason the A’s have managed to remain so competitive amid frequent “step backs,” regular roster turnover and perennial payroll constraints.
The extent of this ostensible “step back” will be partly determined by the extent to which ownership is willing to spend in future seasons, but the A’s have never embarked on the sort of lengthy, years-long rebuilds we’ve recently seen in Baltimore, Detroit and other places. Oakland has never had more than three straight losing seasons under Billy Beane and has just eight total losing records in Beane’s 24 full seasons leading baseball operations.
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