Projecting MLB teams' 2019 over/under win totals

Paced by the Boston Red Sox's decade-best 108 wins, the 2018 Major League Baseball season saw three teams finish with 100 or more victories. The Houston Astros and New York Yankees joined the eventual World Series champs with 103 and 100 wins, respectively. It's quite the fraternity when you consider only six MLB clubs finished a regular season with 100 or more wins between 2010-2017. While the BoSox, Yanks and 'Stros remain chock-full of talent and are in the running for a World Series title this season, oddsmakers set a win-total benchmark for each MLB squad. 

Here's a complete rundown of the over/under win totals for MLB squads ahead of baseball's Opening Day later this week.

Note: Team total captions include (O/U) futures juice. For example, Arizona is at -125 to finish with OVER 75.5 wins, which means if you wagered on the Diamondbacks to win 76 or more games, and it happened, you'd need to risk $125 to win $100.

Total: 75.5 (-130 / EVEN)

2018 wins: 82

2019 hitting: The Diamondbacks lost their leadoff hitter in A.J. Pollock and cleanup hitter in Paul Goldschmidt. The saving grace is that Arizona plays in a hitter-friendly park, which may help the team produce just enough offense to compete.

2019 pitching:  Theipitching staff retained ace Zack Greinke but lost an above-average second starter in Patrick Corbin. The new second and third starters, Robbie Ray and Zack Godley, tend to serve up too many walks.

The lean: There is some heavy juice on the OVER at -130, but the National League West is weak enough that I believe the D-backs win 76 or more games.

Total: 86 (EVEN / -130)

2018 wins: 90

2019 hitting:  The Braves surrounded their young stars, Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, with veterans Brian McCann and Josh Donaldson. This Atlanta squad will score some runs in 2019.

2019 pitching:  If there is an area of regression to be concerned about, it's on the Braves' bump. Julio Teheran is not the ace he once was, and Mike Foltynewicz will not be ready for Opening Day and may miss all of April due to elbow tightness. His absence could cost the Braves a few wins this season.

The lean: In an ultra-competitive NL East, I'll take the UNDER.

Total: 58.5 (EVEN / -130)

2018 wins: 47

2019 hitting:  How bad is the O's offense? A 23-year-old prospect felt comfortable enough to voice his displeasure after he learned he would start the season in the minors. Austin Hays' bat will be needed sooner rather than later, but Baltimore is in the midst of a monster rebuild. It'll be interesting to see and hear how the managerial staff keeps morale up this season.

2019 pitching: Baltimore's pitching staff possessed a league-worst 5.18 earned run average last season, and there is no reason to believe it improved this offseason.

The lean: It's not that often that an MLB team loses 100-plus games in back-to-back seasons, but here we are — UNDER.

Total: 94.5 (-115 / -115)

2018 wins: 108

2019 hitting:  Boston's lineup is practically the same. Spring training suggested Jackie Bradley Jr.'s new stroke will add even more pop to the Red Sox offense, while 22-year-old Rafael Devers looks to take another huge step at the plate after smacking 21 dingers in 121 games last season.

2019 pitching:  The rotation remains the same, but the bullpen lost Joe Kelly and closer Craig Kimbrel. He converted 42 of 47 save opportunities with a sub-2.75 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. This will cost the Sox another 108-win campaign but won't cost them a shot at the AL East crown.

The lean: OVER

Total: 88 (-125 / -105)

2018 wins: 95

2019 hitting:  Kris Bryant missed 60 games last season due to injury. He's projected to hit around .280 with 25-30 homers, 90-plus runs and 80-90 RBI. His production was sorely missed last season.

2019 pitching:  Will the real Yu Darvish please step up? He looked sharp at times this spring, but he is currently dealing with a blister on his pitching hand and needs his good stuff to carry over to the regular season, where he's struggled to stay healthy in recent years. He claims he'll be good to go for the start of the season. Darvish is 11-15 over the past two seasons as a member of the Rangers, Dodgers and Cubs.

The lean: OVER

Total: 74 (+125 / -155)

2018 wins: 62

2019 hitting:  The White Sox ranked in the bottom seven in runs scored per game last season. Their most notable offseason acquisitions were adding leadoff hitter Jon Jay and cleanup hitter Yonder Alonso. That means all the pressure in the world is on 22-year-old prospect Eloy Jimenez. He'll provide some pop in the middle of the lineup, but the question remains: Who else is going to drive in runs?

2019 pitching:  Chicago added two journeymen in Ervin Santana and Ivan Nova to "upgrade" a rotation that posted a 5.07 ERA last season. As has often been said, No. 1 starter Carlos Rodon needs to live up to his first-round draft pick status and pitch like a staff ace for the White Sox to start trending in the right direction.

The lean: UNDER

Total 79 (-115 / -115)

2018 wins: 67

2019 hitting:  The loss of hometown boy Scooter Gennett (groin) for the next two to three months is not the way to start the Reds' 150th anniversary season. Gennett's 4.2 WAR rating last season meant his presence in Cincinnati's lineup added four to five wins to its season total vs. his replacement. With him out for an extended period of time, the O/U 79 win total starts to trend toward the UNDER.

2019 pitching:  Cincinnati was one of five starting rotations to finish the 2018 season with an ERA north of 5.00. The additions of Sonny Gray, Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, after he returns from injury in mid-April, is definitely an upgrade year over year, but Great American Ball Park is a hitter's dream. It'll be interesting to see if that trio can actually keep the ball in the sandbox that is GABP.

The lean: UNDER

Total: 90.5 (-145 / +115)

2018 wins: 91

2019 hitting:  The Indians lost Edwin Encarnacion and Michael Brantley to free agency, which was not ideal if the goal is a World Series title. Cleveland's offense could scuffle this season, and that will place a ton of pressure on the starting rotation and bullpen — again.

2019 pitching:  This is arguably the best rotation in MLB. However, whispers that the Tribe is looking to trade Corey Kluber and/or Trevor Bauer remain, and that's not ideal as it pertains to 2019 win total projections.

The lean: UNDER

Total: 84.5 (-120 / -110)

2018 wins: 91

2019 hitting: The Rockies' home/away offensive splits are always worth noting. Colorado hit .287 and averaged 5.5 runs per game in the thin Denver air last season but only hit .225 and averaged 4.1 runs per game away from Coors Field. If the Rockies ever want to contend for a World Series title again, they need to balance out the production.

2019 pitching: Their starting rotation pitched 932 innings last season — third-most behind Cleveland and Houston. Their 4.17 earned run average ranked in the middle of the pack, but considering they play half their games at Coors Field, the Rockies superseded expectations.

The lean: OVER

Total: 68.5 (+105 / -135)

2018 wins: 64

2019 hitting:  Miguel Cabrera will turn 36 years old this season. The offense around him needs to assist with the heavy lifting after averaging 3.9 runs per game last season, which ranked 26th out of 30 MLB teams. The problem is that the additions of two former Pittsburgh Pirates, Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, are not ideal candidates to achieve that goal. Detroit needs its farm system to churn out some talent — and fast.

2019 pitching:  It was announced last week that the team's No. 1 starter, Michael Fulmer, will have season-ending Tommy John surgery. So 32-year-old Jordan Zimmermann — who finished 7-8 with a 4.52 ERA last season — will be the team's Opening Day starter and de facto No. 1 starter moving forward. This is not ideal.

The lean: UNDER

Total: 96.5 (-130 / EVEN)

2018 wins: 103

2019 hitting:  Houston finished with the sixth-best offense that averaged 4.9 runs per game last season. Resting on no laurels, the Astros went out and signed free agent and .300 hitter Michael Brantley. From leadoff hitter George Springer on down, this lineup will compete with Boston for the top offense this season.

2019 pitching:  The Astros pitching staff led MLB with a 3.11 team ERA last season. Front-end starters Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole remain, but Houston will be without Lance McCullers due to Tommy John surgery. Closer Roberto Osuna is projected to save 35-40 games this season.

The lean: OVER

Total: 69.5 (+115 / -145)

2018 wins: 58

2019 hitting: Catcher  Salvador Perez's (27 HR, 80 RBI in 2018) season-ending Tommy John surgery added injury to insult ahead of what is projected to be a rough season for Royals fans. Kansas City did ink Billy Hamilton to a free-agent deal. His speed at the bottom of the lineup could help the offense improve upon its 3.9 runs per game last season.

2019 pitching:  Homer Bailey — he of the 1-14 record and 6.09 ERA last season — made the K.C. starting rotation. That's pretty much all you need to know about the state of the Royals pitching staff.

The lean: Bettors hammered the UNDER 69.5 wins so much, the juice moved from -130 to -145 in the lead-up to Opening Day. I'll still take the UNDER.

Total: 83.5 (EVEN / -130)

2018 wins: 80

2019 hitting and pitching:  Out of 30 teams, and even with Mike Trout as the face of the franchise, the Angels ranked 15th in runs per game last season. The pitching staff ranked 15th in team ERA and, fittingly, finished right around .500 at 80-82. The lineup added Justin Bour and Jonathan Lucroy, but the duo is worth only one to one-and-a-half more wins at best. With Trevor Cahill and Matt Harvey the projected top two starters until Andrew Heaney is healthy, Los Angeles remains a sub-.500 ballclub indefinitely. 

The lean: After Trout signed his $430 million contract extension, it became more expensive to bet the UNDER, and I believe that to be the right lean.

Total: 93.5 (-110 / -120)

2018 wins: 92

2019 hitting:  Corey Seager played in only 26 games last season due to injury. He's projected to hit 20-plus homers with a .285 average this season, while the Dodgers also signed A.J. Pollock, who will provide a little pop in the middle of a lineup that averaged 4.96 runs per game last season.

2019 pitching:  Clayton Kershaw missed roughly six to seven starts last season due to injury and won't be ready for Opening Day due to shoulder discomfort and a late start to his spring training. Still, the Dodgers possess one of the deeper rotations, including Walker Buehler, whom some consider to be Kershaw 2.0.

The lean: UNDER

Total: 63.5 (-110 / -140)

2018 Wins: 63

2019 hitting: The offense is not better than last year.

2019 pitching: The pitching staff is not better than last year.

The lean: Can they win one more game than last year? Sure. OVER

Total: 86.5 (-120 / -110)

2018 wins: 96

2019 hitting:  One thing to remember when analyzing last year's 96 wins is that the Brewers finished the regular season on an eight-game win streak. Their offense ranked in the middle of the pack last season. Their "big" offseason upgrade was catcher Yasmani Grandal. 

2019 pitching: The staff is  young, and we really don't know what Jimmy Nelson will bring to the bump after missing all of last season due to injury. Advanced metrics suggest Milwaukee's fifth-ranked (ERA) staff was a little lucky last year, and some regression is expected.

The lean: The National League Central is improved, but I don't see the Brewers shedding 10-plus wins year over year.

Total: 84.5 (-130 / EVEN)

2018 wins: 78

2019 hitting:  The lineup is definitely improved year over year. The additions of Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron will boost the production of an offense that averaged 4.5 runs per game last season. The team's X-factor remains Byron Buxton. He hit really well during spring training, but having that success at the dish carry on over into the regular season has always been his issue.

2019 pitching:  Aside from 24-year-old Jose Berrios, those looking to wager on the Twins' 2019 win total shouldn't expect much from the rest of the starting rotation in its current form. They're all veterans with five-plus years of experience who are 4.00-plus ERA guys. Berrios is the key and needs to get his season ERA closer to 3.50 than 4.00, as it's been the past two seasons.

The lean: UNDER

Total: 85.5 (-115 / -115)

2018 wins: 77

2019 hitting:  Robinson Cano may have been the big winter hot stove acquisition headline, but prospect Pete Alonso has been the Mets' spring training player to watch. Alonso's power stroke is needed, but the offense will have to sacrifice consistency for those dingers, as he strikes out more than 25 percent of the time.

2019 pitching:  When all healthy at the same time, the Mets starting rotation — No. 1 through No. 5 — challenges the Cleveland Indians for the top starting staff in MLB. However, keeping the pitchers healthy is what has kept the Mets from competing in the NL East the past few seasons. They have Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom but need Noah Syndergaard to give them 28-plus starts this season.

The lean: OVER

Total: 96.5 (-130 / EVEN)

2018 wins: 100

2019 hitting:  Luke Voit is projected to hit 20-plus homers out of the No. 6 slot in the Yankees lineup after  Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar. New York has an embarrassment of offensive riches.

2019 pitching:  First, the Yankees need to get Luis Severino back to 100 percent health after rotator cuff inflammation placed him on the shelf during spring training. Masahiro Tanaka was solid last season with a 12-6 record and 3.75 ERA but is now on the wrong side of 30 years old. Former Mariners pitcher James Paxton is the team's X-factor on the mound. The injury bug has bitten him in the past, but when at the top of his game he's got No. 1 stuff.

The Lean: The OVER was more expensive just 10 days ago (-150). So with the discount, I'm leaning the OVER.

Total: 83.5 (-120 / -110)

2018 wins: 97

2019 hitting:  The A's lost one of their best hitters for at least the next four to six weeks when Matt Olson underwent hand surgery. The top of Oakland's lineup appears to be above average on paper with Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty and Khris Davis hitting 2-3-4. One guy to watch for is Jurickson Profar, who will earn more at-bats with Olson out. The one-time top prospect of the Rangers was traded to the A's this offseason. Oakland quietly averaged 5.0 runs per game last season.

2019 pitching: The A's head into the season without a definitive No. 2 starter. Their rotation is peppered with SP3s and SP4s. I would expect some regression off the 3.82 ERA they posted last season.

The lean: UNDER

Note: An updated total was "off the board" at time of publication due to the Athletics starting the season in Japan.

Total: 89.5 (-115 / -115)

2018 wins: 80

2019 hitting:  Forget Bryce Harper for just a moment, and embrace Jean Segura (.304 average with speed), J.T. Realmuto (21 HR in 2018) and Rhys Hoskins (34 HR in 2018). The addition of Harper's power is just the icing on the cake.

2019 pitching:  The Phillies' No. 1 starter, Aaron Nola, will win a Cy Young Award at some point in his career. Former Yankees relief pitcher David Robertson joined the staff as the team's new closer. Philadelphia's advanced metrics suggest its 4.15 team ERA last season was a little unlucky. Expect some slight improvement this season.

The lean: OVER

Total: 77.5 (-125 / -105)

2018 wins: 82

2019 hitting: As of five years ago, Pittsburgh's farm system was the envy of MLB. Fast-forward to 2019, and the organization is a shell of its former self. Most of those top prospects now play for other teams, and the Pirates possess a below-average offense with no true identity. The return of Jung Ho Kang should provide some pop, as he leads all hitters with seven spring training home runs.

2019 pitching:  The Pirates' No. 1 starter, Jameson Taillon, had the start of his MLB career derailed by injuries but is projected to finish with double-digit wins and an ERA around 3.50. Pittsburgh's other four starters began their careers with different teams.

The lean: Even for the Pirates, this total is too low. OVER

Total: 78.5 (+110 / -140)

2018 wins: 66

2019 hitting:  Despite the hefty price tag, Manny Machado is only one man. He alone isn't going to help the 28th-ranked offense that averaged 3.8 runs per game last season. Fellow veterans Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers need big campaigns for San Diego to compete in the NL West. Machado can help the Padres win five to six more games this season, but others need to do some of the heavy lifting.

2019 pitching: Forget the casual baseball fan, most — outside of Southern California — would be hard-pressed to name one of San Diego's five starters heading into the regular season. Matt Strahm is the veteran with two years MLB experience.

The lean: UNDER

Total 73.5 (-125 / -105)

2018 wins: 73

2019 hitting:  The Giants averaged 3.7 runs per game — second-fewest in MLB. They added journeyman Gerardo Parra to the bottom of their lineup. This won't be pretty.

2019 pitching: San Francisco's starting staff ranked 15th out of 30 teams in ERA last year. When you combine a league-average starting rotation with an offensively inept lineup and make no major changes in the offseason, you are rebuilding.

The lean: UNDER

Total: 71.5 (-135 / +105)

2018 wins: 89

2019 hitting:  The Mariners finished the 2018 season with the eighth-highest batting average but ranked in the bottom 10 in runs scored. That lack of hitting with runners on base is what closed the window on the Mariners as an AL West contender. They were sellers this offseason but did manage to bring in veteran big-boppers Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion. Baseball Prospectus projected 72 wins for this team, which seems in line with oddsmakers.

2019 pitching: It's the end of an era for Felix Hernandez. Although he remains in the starting rotation, he's no longer the No. 1 ace but is the team's fourth option. The team is excited about 27-year-old prospect Yusei Kikuchi's potential, but he's projected to carry a 4.00 ERA with eight to nine strikeouts per nine innings pitched. 

The lean: UNDER

Note: An updated total was "off the board" at time of publication due to the Mariners starting the season in Japan.

Total: 88.5 (-110 / -120)

2018 wins: 88

2019 hitting:  With the addition of Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals are on the verge of a top 10 offense once again. The guy to watch for is Marcell Ozuna. St. Louis' cleanup hitter started his career filling in for an oft-injured Giancarlo Stanton but has blossomed into a .280 hitter with a 25-30 home run potential.

2019 pitching:  The Cards' second, third and fourth starting pitchers were picked by the ballclub in the 2012, 2014 and 2016 amateur drafts. Jack Flaherty (pictured) has No. 1 stuff and is projected to carry a 3.50 ERA with 10-plus strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

The lean: OVER

Total: 84.5 (-115 / -115)

2018 wins: 90

2019 hitting:  It's pretty rare for a team to win 90 games and finish third in a division, but that's the life of the Rays in the American League East. Tampa Bay finished with the third-highest batting average — .258 — and fourth-fewest home runs. Some may dig the long ball, but that doesn't necessarily translate to wins. Ask the Texas Rangers.

2019 pitching:  Reigning Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell paces a rotation that added Charlie Morton (3.13 ERA last season), which should upgrade a starting staff that held opposing hitters to the third-lowest batting average last season: .225.

The lean: OVER

Total: 71 (-115 / -115)

2018 wins: 67

2019 hitting:  The Rangers struck out 1,484 times last season — fourth-most in MLB. Their offseason acquisitions were Asdrubal Cabrera and Jeff Mathis. It's going to be a long season in the Lone Star State. 

2019 pitching:  With Mike Minor and Edinson Volquez the team's top two starters, it's unlikely the Rangers' third-worst team ERA of a season ago improves all that much.

The lean: UNDER

Total: 74.5 (+110 / -140)

2018 wins: 73

2019 hitting:  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is expected to make his major league debut later this season, and Bo Bichette will likely join him in 2020. Until then, Toronto's offense will continue to scuffle below the league average.

2019 pitching:  Ace Marcus Stroman regressed mightily last season, but his 3.84 xFIP compared to a 5.54 ERA suggests he may have been one of the more unlucky pitchers of 2018. However, the entire staff's 4.85 team ERA was pretty accurate. This is why the team added two new starters and four new relief pitchers in the offseason.

The lean: UNDER

Total: 88.5 ( -135 / +105)

2018 wins: 82

2019 hitting:  Yes, Harper is gone. However, Juan Soto is what you would call an above-average replacement. The 20-year-old phenom is projected to hit .290 with 25-30 home runs. Fellow prospect Victor Robles is projected to hit 10-15 homers with 25-30 stolen bases. Washington's offense will be just fine.

2019 pitching:  If free agent acquisition Patrick Corbin picks up where he left off in Arizona — 3.15 ERA last season — and Stephen Strasburg can stay healthy, the Nationals' top three starters will be among the best in baseball. Max Scherzer still doesn't get enough credit for his Hall of Fame credentials.

The lean: OVER