Giants vs. Eagles: Preview and Prediction

Back in May, when the NFL’s schedule was released, New York Giants fans circled Week 12’s matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. This would be the game, after all, in which Big Blue would have their first opportunity to exact revenge on the Birds for their, let’s say, win-repellent strategies employed in their Week 17 loss to the Washington Football Team last season. That loss cost the Giants the NFC East crown and a playoff berth.

Now, with that circled Eagles game just days away, Giants fans have other, more pressing reasons to care about this divisional matchup. Firstly, this will be New York’s first game after the firing of much-maligned offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. Playcalling duties will be taken up by assistant Freddie Kitchens, who most famously head coached the Cleveland Browns in 2019.

The decision to oust Garrett had been long overdue, as the Giants had the NFL’s lowest scoring offense over his 26-game tenure. Young quarterback Daniel Jones‘ development appeared to stall, if not regress, under his watch. Garrett consistently helmed a bland, clunky offense that struggled to score touchdowns. When contrasted with the 2019 Giants, who under then-coach Pat Shurmur and consisting largely of the same players finished a respectable 14th in total touchdowns, it’s clear that Garrett was an unmitigated failure.

None of this is to say that Big Blue’s offense will be completely transformed under Kitchens. New York will still arguably have the NFL’s worst offensive line. Jones will still have a frustrating penchant for committing head-scratching turnovers. Their skill-position players will still be injury-prone and unreliable. But we can certainly say this offense will change. To what extent and to what effect remains to be seen. Based on Kitchens’ track record as a playcaller, we can expect more verticle passing plays and a generally more aggressive mindset. Sunday’s game will be the first case study in just how much Garrett was impairing this offense.

Playoffs?

Plus, for the more optimistic Giants fan still eyeing a playoff berth, this game is a must-win. Despite their dreadful showing last Monday night, New York is still just two games back of the NFC’s final Wild Card spot. Philadelphia, at 5-6, is only half a game back of that last spot, so New York needs to beat them to gain important ground in the standings.

Here’s everything you need to know ahead of Sunday’s game, followed by a prediction for the final score.

Where and When

MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST/10:00 a.m. PST

Injuries

Philadelphia: CB Darius Slay (Questionable), CB Tay Gowan (Questionable), DE Josh Sweat (Questionable), LB Shaun Bradley (Questionable), RB Jordan Howard (Doubtful)

New York: WR Kadarius Toney (Questionable), WR Sterling Shepard (Questionable), RB Saquon Barkley (Questionable), WR John Ross (Questionable), CB Adoree’ Jackson (Questionable), TE Kyle Rudolph (Questionable), TE Kaden Smith (Questionable), FB Cullen Gillaspia (Questionable), OLB Lorenzo Carter (Questionable)

Most Concerning Matchup: DT Fletcher Cox vs. OG Will Hernandez

Cox has been great player over his 10 seasons, and is no stranger to playing well against the Giants either. The six-time Pro Bowler has gone 14-3 with 41 tackles and four sacks against Big Blue in his career. While not quite the player he was in his prime, Cox is still an effective interior force, garnering a solid 69.8 grade from Pro Football Focus this year.

The concern here is less about Cox, though, and more about who he’ll be lining up against. Hernandez is coming off unquestionably the worst game of his career, and probably the worst game of any Giant all season. The fourth-year right guard allowed pressure after pressure to Ndamukong Suh on Monday night, single-handedly undermining multiple offensive plays. It’s not as if that performance was a massive outlier for Hernandez, either, as he’s been a subpar starter all year. Therefore, New York should be very hesitant about leaving Hernandez one-on-one against Cox.

Most Promising Matchup: WR Kadarius Toney vs. CB Steven Nelson

Among the players that hope to see a significant uptick in production with new offensive playcalling, Toney might be foremost among them. Despite possessing an undeniably rare and dynamic skill set, the rookie out of Florida has been frustratingly underused. He’s only seen double-digit targets twice this year, and has received five or less targets five times. Getting Toney more involved is an obvious change Kitchens can make to provide this offense a spark.

With the Eagles top cornerback Darius Slay to cover Kenny Golladay, Nelson will likely get the nod to shadow Toney. Nelson is a veteran in his first year as an Eagle, having split six prior seasons between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers. Nelson is a decent player, but nothing great. This year he’s allowing a completion percentage of 66.7 and a passer rating of 111.1. If Toney is truly the star-level player he shows flashes of being, he should be able to exploit this matchup.

Keys to Victory

The Eagles are winners of three out of four and have been hitting their stride offensively. They’ve established their identity as a run-first team, using their strong offensive line and mobile quarterback to gash teams on the ground. New York needs their big defensive lineman like Leonard Williams and Dexter Lawrence to be stout at the point of attack, while being disciplined on zone read plays. Forcing Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts into being a pocket passer should be the goal.

On offense, the Giants need to stretch the field to take advantage of Philadelphia’s mediocre secondary and linebacker corps. At this point in the season, Big Blue has really nothing to lose. An aggressive, almost reckless approach is perfectly justiable to chase the reward that comes with risk.

Final Score Prediction: Giants 27 – Eagles 21

In hindsight, this prediction may look foolish. But teams usually play with an extra boost of energy after a major shakeup in their coaching staff. Philadelphia has been better this year than most expected, but they’re still not a very good team. If the Giants can play up to their potential with a more aggressive offensive gameplan, they should be able to eke out the Eagles at home.

– Ryan Cuneo is the Managing Editor of Full Press Giants. He covers the New York Giants. Like and follow on Follow @ryan_cuneo Follow @FullPressGiants and Facebook.