Vegas oddsmaker calls Patriots '11th-best team in AFC'

That may seem a bit extreme, but is it really? The Patriots finished sixth in the AFC last year. Would that have been the case if the Indianapolis Colts had Matt Ryan instead of Carson Wentz? What if Russell Wilson was the quarterback of the Denver Broncos or Deshaun Watson were leading the Cleveland Browns? Lamar Jackson played through injuries for much of the season, and he should make a huge difference for the Baltimore Ravens in 2022 if healthy. The Dolphins beat the Patriots twice last year, and that was before they had Tyreek Hill. The Los Angeles Chargers have added Khalil Mack via trade and signed J.C. Jackson, who was New England’s top cornerback last season. The Las Vegas Raiders just traded for Davante Adams.

You get the point. Really, there are probably only three teams you can say with certainty are worse than the Patriots at the moment — the New York Jets, Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars. There are always variables that cannot be accounted for, such as if Mac Jones makes a massive second-year leap. But the reality is several teams have gotten much better this offseason, and the Patriots have probably gotten worse.

Of course, most people didn’t expect New England to go 10-7 last season with a rookie quarterback starting. That is the Bill Belichick factor, and it would be unwise to doubt the future Hall of Famer. Either way, it doesn’t look good on paper. The odds will likely reflect that unless there are major changes prior to Week 1 of next season.