Why the Jacksonville Jaguars Can Win the AFC South

After an abysmal 2024 season, finishing 4-13, the Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance to do something most don’t expect: win the AFC South.

Plagued by injuries and poor execution late in games last season, the Jaguars can overcome those hurdles and win a division that most expect the Houston Texans to secure for a third consecutive year.

The bar is not very high for the division, as the winner in the past few seasons has only needed to win 10 games to secure a home playoff game.

This is a new-look Jaguars squad led by new Head Coach Liam Cohen.

We list why Jacksonville can win the AFC South and exceed expectations in 2025.

New Look Jaguars Can Win Division

Improved roster via Free Agency and Draft

In the off-season, Jacksonville finally shifted away from only signing skill position players, via free agency. Instead, they addressed the offensive line, a need that quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be thankful to the front office for.

This past season, Lawrence was sacked 18 times in just 10 games after sustaining a shoulder injury that put him out for the rest of the season. In his first four seasons, (60 games), the Clemson product has been sacked a staggering 112 times.

Thirty-four-year-old General Manager James Gladstone is now in charge, and he went out and signed three offensive linemen, including Center Robert Hainsey (three-year, $21 million contract), Patrick Mekari to potentially become the team’s Right Guard, and Chuma Edge at Offensive Tackle to add depth.

Other Notable Free Agent Signings:

Eric Murray, Safety, (three-year, $19.5 million)

Nick Mullens, Quarterback, (two-year, $6.5 million)

Johhny Mundt, Tight End, (two-year, $5.5 million)

The Jaguars also made the biggest splash in the NFL Draft this year. The AFC South franchise sent multiple picks to the Cleveland Browns to move up and select the most uniquely talented player Travis Hunter. Still, it remains to be seen how Jacksonville will use him in the upcoming season.

Jacksonville also added depth to the backfield and in the secondary, an area they struggled mightily in 2024.

Trevor Lawrence Bounces Back in 2025

So far in his career, Trevor Lawrence has not lived up to the expectations of a number-one overall pick. He has just one playoff win in a division that hasn’t been particularly tough since he’s been in Jacksonville.

However, Lawrence can surprise most and lead this team to another AFC South title. His new head coach will be able to bring out the best in him. Last year, Cohen took Baker Mayfield and the Tamp Bay Buccaneers offense to another level. Tampa Bay was able to finish fourth in rushing yards and third in total yards and passing yards.

Lawrence should be able to take his play to the next level with a play-caller who has shown he can give an offense a higher ceiling.

Overall, new additions like Hunter and Dyami Brown merged with a stronger offensive line and a reliable run game, should make Lawrence’s offense more efficient in 2025.

Schedule Sets Up for Division Run

Another reason Jacksonville has a chance of taking the AFC South is their strength of schedule. The Jaguars have the sixth easiest schedule in the NFL, according to Vegas oddsmakers.

If the Jaguars can take advantage of opponents within the AFC South, there’s no reason why they can’t contend for the division. Likely, the AFC South team that wins nine or 10 games will earn the automatic playoff berth.

In one-possession games, the Jaguars were 3-10 last season. But they won only once in games decided by three points or fewer (1-4). That must change this season if Jacksonville wants to capture a division title.

The Indianapolis Colts will be relying on Daniel Jones, who has shown to be inconsistent throughout his career. As for the Tennessee Titans, they are a young core and will be starting rookie quarterback Cam Ward. The Texans will be looking for their third straight division title but have shown inconsistencies throughout the season.

A revamped Lawrence, a new front office, and a new coaching staff, along with an upgraded roster make the Jaguars a viable contender in a struggling AFC South division.