Let’s address the elephant in the room. If there’s ever a time to not outright panic over a team’s performance, it’s in the first few weeks of the season. Every team has a rough three- or four-game stretch, and that’s magnified early in the season by the fact that there’s no good stretch to reference just yet. On top of that, it usually takes a while for new players to get acclimated to their teams and systems, and even returning players need a game or two to get back up to speed.
But, there are still some things that can be looked at. Just because it’s early in the year doesn’t mean a team isn’t showing signs that could hinder them all season if not addressed quickly enough. It should still be taken with a grain of salt, but it’s overreaction season, so as long as that can be recognized, there’s nothing wrong with having some early fun. Just don’t roast me when each of these ages poorly in a week.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The last team to hire their head coach as late into the offseason as the Blue Jackets did was the Colorado Avalanche in 2016 when Patrick Roy surprisingly stepped down from his role in early August and they weren’t able to hire a candidate before Aug. 25. The sudden change certainly caused some issues as the team had to adjust their philosophy on the fly, and as a result, the 2016-17 Avs team ended up with the second-worst point percentage in a season in the last 10 years. Now, neither that Avalanche team or this year’s Blue Jackets team were expected to be very good, but the fact that Mike Babcock’s departure came in much more controversial fashion certainly doesn’t help Columbus’ case of it creating some early season chaos. Add in that young gun Cole Sillinger may potentially be the subject of a Tate McRae music video, and already the team had more off-ice problems than most do in a season.
The Blue Jackets are only 1-2 thus far, but they’ve looked awful on the ice with only six of the 23 players that have ice time this season finding themselves with a 5v5 expected goal share above 45%, and the team as a whole sits fourth-last in the league at 39.09%. The season is far from over, but it’s a rough look for a team that was hoping to be much better this season. If it’s any consolation, the Avalanche got Cale Makar as a result of that season, and the head coach they brought in to replace Roy was Jared Bednar, who is the third-longest tenured coach now and helped the Avs to a Stanley Cup.
Seattle Kraken
It hasn’t been an ideal start for the Kraken coming off their first playoff appearance in franchise history, as they are currently one of two teams without a win. They’re also tied with a San Jose Sharks team that everyone expected to be bad, and the Sharks have a game in hand too. Sure, the Vegas Golden Knights and Colorado Avalanche are tough outs, but you’d expect Seattle to be a bit more in contention with teams like the Nashville Predators and the St. Louis Blues.
However, the more alarming thing is that the Kraken’s offense has come to a grinding halt so far. They have yet to score two goals in a game, and only have three through their first four games. They were expected to regress a little bit this season after leading the league in shooting percentage last year, but shooting 2.11% at 5v5 is a drastic change. Considering how much of their success was tied to their scoring depth, that offense going away might put them back to the lottery contenders that they were in 2021-22.
Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning were always expected to underperform to start the season with Andrei Vasilevskiy out, so a 1-2-1 record isn’t exactly a surprise to most people right now. The goaltending has been about what may have been expected as well, with Jonas Johansson rocking an .893 save percentage and Matt Tomkins having an .892. What is concerning is the rest of the team’s performance, as the Lightning currently have the third-worst 5v5 expected goals share with 38.89%. That is far below what you would expect from the Lightning, especially when you’d think that they’d elevate their play to a postseason level to compensate for their goaltending.
To make matters worse, their losses so far have seen them gifting points to divisional rivals that they would have wanted to bank considering how deep the Atlantic Division appears to be this season. They lost to the Detroit Red Wings, Ottawa Senators and Buffalo Sabres to start the year, and have the Toronto Maple Leafs this Saturday. There’s still plenty of time to turn this around, but the Lightning probably want to start getting out of the hole before they keep digging deeper into it.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets may be the only team to fairly react to at this point, and it’s not for their on-ice performance. In fact, on the ice they seem to be alright so far. They may only be 1-2-0 through three games, but they’ve had some solid play with the eighth-best 5v5 expected goal share at 55.9%, and getting rid of Pierre-Luc Dubois in exchange for a more depth hasn’t backfired on them just yet.
What should be a cause for concern is this:
Sure, this and a home opener of 13,410 isn’t a massive concern after only two games, but the bigger issue is that this has been a continuous trend since the pandemic. They averaged 14,045 for 93.6% capacity last season, and 12,716 for 84.8% in 2021-22, although that was significantly impacted by Canadian pandemic restrictions at various points of the season. It doesn’t exactly cause a massive dent in owner Mark Chipman’s wallet considering he’s still one of the richest people in Canada, but if he doesn’t see it as a smart investment, that could put the Jets’ future in jeopardy. I wouldn’t guarantee a relocation just based on two home games so far this season, but it’s not the first time the Jets have had to move on either.
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