Free agent focus for the Vegas Golden Knights

Patrick came over to Vegas from the Nashville Predators in a trade for Cody Glass back in July 2021 and has played just 25 games for them, putting up two goals and five assists in that space. It seems likely that Patrick will be non-tendered by the Golden Knights, making him an unrestricted free agent for the summer. Should this happen, it is difficult to predict the next step for the 24-year-old Winnipeg native. When healthy, Patrick has been a very productive third line center who can play with some edge. But given the litany of health issues he has dealt with the past few seasons, it is possible that he elects to retire – or looks to continue his career outside of the NHL. If he chooses to hang up his skates, it would be a sad ending for a player who showed a lot of promise as a 19- and 20-year-old with the Philadelphia Flyers.

F Brett Howden – Howden’s regular season was a disappointment, as he produced just six goals and seven assists in 54 games while spending most of his opportunities buried in his own end. He was fortunate that during his time on the ice, his goaltenders bailed he and his linemates out with an on-ice save percentage of 93.3. His playoff performance, however, was a completely different story. Howden found his offensive game in the postseason and was able to almost replicate his regular season numbers, logging five goals and five assists in 22 playoff games.

At this point in his career, it is hard to pin down who Howden is as a player. His 2022-23 season was a tale of two different performances and almost a microcosm of the 25-year-old’s career thus far. He has shown glimpses of being an effective fourth line center, but he has also had stretches where he doesn’t look like he belongs in the league. Vegas will have a tough decision on their hands with Howden and may elect to bring him back short-term once again. Last summer, Howden signed a one-year deal for $1.5M and I would expect something in the same ballpark again upcoming.

Other RFAs: D Connor Corcoran, F Pavel Dorofeyev, F Maxim Marushev, D Brayden Pachal, G Jiri Patera

Key unrestricted free agents

G Adin Hill – Hill had a wild journey on his way to becoming the starting netminder for a Stanley Cup champion. He became an afterthought in San Jose last season and was dealt in August 2022 for a 2024 fourth-round pick. He then found himself caught up in a numbers game behind Logan Thompson and eventually Laurent Brossoit. Hill went two full months without playing before being called upon in the second round of the playoffs. He came in cold to help the Golden Knights dispatch of the Edmonton Oilers. From there, it became his crease. Hill went on to post an 11-4 record in the playoffs with a .932 save percentage and a 2.17 goals-against average.

His playoff numbers this year were dominant, but Hill has struggled to find consistency throughout his career. Coming into this year, he had posted several seasons of average or below-average production. If you take a deeper dive into Hill’s numbers and look at his goals saved above expected, he has posted a -7 since 2017-18. While the number is one of many that can be used to demonstrate value, it does show that Hill has been slightly below-average for most of his career.

This will make for a very interesting negotiation. Hill will be looking to cash in on his run with a long-term big money contract but it is unclear what Vegas will be looking to do – they have several other netminders in their system and do have to consider signing some other pieces. The champions may elect to go short-term with Hill to gauge if he is, in fact, their goaltender of the future. I would expect Hill to seek a salary in the range for $4M-$5M annually on his next contract.

F Ivan Barbashev – Barbashev is now a two-time Stanley Cup champion, having won his first title back in 2019 with the St. Louis Blues. Barbashev was a big part of this year’s title with Vegas, putting up seven goals and 11 assists in 22 playoff games after posting 16 goals and 29 assists in 82 regular-season games. Although his regular-season numbers represented a drop from his 60 points a year ago with the Blues, the 27-year-old was able to find another gear when the games mattered the most. Barbashev has improved in every season since he entered the NHL after starting his career slow and looking like he might never find his offensive touch.

While he was a big part of Vegas’ most effective line in the playoffs, it does feel like Barbashev may be squeezed out by cap constraints. With a weak free agent market and multiple teams interested in his services, Barbashev is very likely to test the UFA waters in order to maximize his income. He made $2.25M last season and should be able to double his salary on a long-term deal. There was a lot of interest in his services when St. Louis was dangling him at the trade deadline. With another Stanley Cup on his resume, that interest has only grown.

G Laurent Brossoit – Brossoit was terrific in the regular season for Vegas, but couldn’t keep himself in the net in the playoffs, as he fell apart during the team's second-round series against the Edmonton Oilers. Brossoit posted a 7-0-3 record in the regular season with a 2.17 goals against average and a .927 save percentage. While those numbers are terrific, he was only able to dress in 11 regular-season games. In the playoffs, his performance was far less impressive, as he went 5-2 with a 3.18 goals against average and a .894 save percentage.

Brossoit is coming off a two-year deal that paid him $2.325M in each of the last two years. He figures to get something similar in free agency. Pittsburgh Penguins backup Casey DeSmith received a two-year contract for $1.8M annually last offseason and Brossoit should be able to top that given that he is a more capable backup and someone who can operate as a 1B option in a pinch.

Other UFAs:  F Teddy Blueger, F Phil Kessel, F Spencer Foo

Projected cap space

Just days after winning the Stanley Cup, the Vegas Golden Knights management will have a quick turnaround to prepare for what should be a busy offseason. The Golden Knights are currently just $3.5M under the salary cap for next season with some key pieces left to sign from their Cup-winning group. The good news for Vegas is that they have 21 players already signed for 2023-24, including many of the key pieces that brought them a title this season.

The situation for the Golden Knights is not unlike that of the 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins, who were able to capture the 2016 Stanley Cup and bring almost their entire group back for a sequel in 2017. Vegas could be in position to do the same.

The biggest hurdle that Vegas will face is in the crease. After missing the entire season with an injury, Robin Lehner is not guaranteed to return. He has been rehabbing, but with all the injuries and off ice issues he has had to endure, Vegas may buy out the veteran if he isn’t a candidate to stay on LTIR. Lehner has two more seasons left on his contract at a cap hit of $5M, which could be a comparable to what netminder Adin Hill would fetch on the open market as an unrestricted free agent.

Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.