Matt Kemp Isn't Just Lucky

This article by Matt Swartz proves it.

First, there's Matt Kemp. Despite Kemp’s power tendencies and relatively high strikeout rate, Kemp is also a BABIP Superstar, but he's unlike other players similar to him in those regards because of his speed; a reflection of that is that Kemp has a 12.8 percent rate of infield hits per ground ball this season. He also rarely pops out when he doesn’t miss, doing so only 4.6 percent of the time this season, and only 2.0 percent of the time in 2008. He also hits the ball very hard, allowing many line drives and outfield flies to fall in as well. This year, he has a BABIP of .359, even higher than my .346 projection.

I only mention this now because there has been past speculation about Kemp's high BABIP tendencies and what it meant for his future. A lot of people thought his batting average would eventually come back down to Earth, but I defended him because I believed his speed helped him beat out a good portion of the high amount of ground balls he hit, and he also drilled a lot of line drives.

While I suppose the study itself is still partially inconclusive, it's quite clear that any expectation for Kemp's batting average to fall based on his high BABIP is rooted in false assumptions. Barring a change in skill or ball distribution, Kemp's batting average should remain in the .290-.310 range.