Due to the Dodgers not playing today, I guess a lot of people are making a big deal about this article by Jim Peltz about Joe Torre starting Ronnie Belliard over Orlando Hudson.
While I don't disagree with anything Cameron said about Belliard, i'm not so sure Hudson is that good of a player either. I mentioned that Hudson was a rather mediocre hitter at the beginning of the season, and while he made me look like an idiot for a while, his offensive production has come down to about his neutral park norms for recent times.
My current stance is that if Torre wants to play Belliard during the regular season until his luck runs out, then so be it. I'm not sure Hudson's true talent level is so significantly better that it would be foolish not to start him (like would be the case with say, Manny Ramirez and Juan Pierre). However, when it comes to the playoffs, i'm not quite as sold on the idea of Belliard starting. After all, the Dodgers won't be playing the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Padres and Nationals in October, they'll be facing elite staffs, and you generally want to go at them with your best players.
Everybody is reeling off these comparisons to Marlon Anderson in 2006, but while he may have had a 1.243 OPS for the Dodgers that year, his OPS in the postseason was .692. I don't blame him though, he was never as good as he showed during the regular season after that trade. And neither is Belliard.
Remember, hot and cold streaks start and end quite randomly. That's not a stat nerd thing either. Everybody who has played any sport knows that there's no switch you turn on and off. Sometimes you just feel like God and you're drilling everything. A week later, you go 1-4 in a game, then 0-4 the next day, and before you know it, you're 1 for your last 21, and everybody's asking you why you suck. Point being, if you want to chance it that Belliard's hot streak will continue, I don't have any real issue with it. Personally though? I'd rather not risk it.
Original Story:
http://www.memoriesofkevinmalone.com/...
It appears Orlando Hudson might no longer be the Dodgers' starting second baseman.I believe a large portion of the fans are clamoring for Belliard to start because of his hot hitting since he was acquired. However, there are those like Dave Cameron from FanGraphs who believe that starting Belliard would be the wrong move to make.
Manager Joe Torre sounded non-committal Sunday as recent acquisition Ronnie Belliard played in place of Hudson for the second consecutive game.
Belliard simply is an inferior player to Hudson. His entire production bump since the trade to LA is a function of a 25% HR/FB rate that has allowed him to slug .589 in 18 games. If you think that's sustainable, I've got a bridge to sell you. Belliard is a swing-at-anything hack without the contact or power to make that kind of approach work. In 204 plate appearances before the Nationals shipped him to LA, he posted a .297 wOBA.So what about me? Well, i'm not in any particular camp.
He's not a defensive wizard. He doesn't run well. He's not as good of a hitter. The only thing Belliard can outdo Hudson in would be some kind of eating competition.
When October rolls around, Torre better have Hudson installed back at second base and Belliard on the bench where he belongs. Any other alignment will be a blow to the Dodgers chance of winning a World Series.
While I don't disagree with anything Cameron said about Belliard, i'm not so sure Hudson is that good of a player either. I mentioned that Hudson was a rather mediocre hitter at the beginning of the season, and while he made me look like an idiot for a while, his offensive production has come down to about his neutral park norms for recent times.
My current stance is that if Torre wants to play Belliard during the regular season until his luck runs out, then so be it. I'm not sure Hudson's true talent level is so significantly better that it would be foolish not to start him (like would be the case with say, Manny Ramirez and Juan Pierre). However, when it comes to the playoffs, i'm not quite as sold on the idea of Belliard starting. After all, the Dodgers won't be playing the Diamondbacks, Pirates, Padres and Nationals in October, they'll be facing elite staffs, and you generally want to go at them with your best players.
Everybody is reeling off these comparisons to Marlon Anderson in 2006, but while he may have had a 1.243 OPS for the Dodgers that year, his OPS in the postseason was .692. I don't blame him though, he was never as good as he showed during the regular season after that trade. And neither is Belliard.
Remember, hot and cold streaks start and end quite randomly. That's not a stat nerd thing either. Everybody who has played any sport knows that there's no switch you turn on and off. Sometimes you just feel like God and you're drilling everything. A week later, you go 1-4 in a game, then 0-4 the next day, and before you know it, you're 1 for your last 21, and everybody's asking you why you suck. Point being, if you want to chance it that Belliard's hot streak will continue, I don't have any real issue with it. Personally though? I'd rather not risk it.
Original Story:
http://www.memoriesofkevinmalone.com/...
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September 22, 2009
