Within my brain, there lies a curiosity to see Justin Upton hit with a metal bat. As a 21-year-old, he would be a draft eligible junior from somewhere like the University Of Virginia, and I imagine he would lead his school to the upcoming College World Series. I can't imagine how ridiculous his numbers would be. Stephen Strasburg, eat your heart out.James McDonald|RHP|AAA|24-Wow, his performance thus far in 2009 has really made me question my earlier evaluations of him. I even went back to my notes to make sure I wasn't being delusional. McDonald might be back in AAA now, but he isn't finding any relief for his woes, as he has walked 8 batters in 11 1/3 innings, and hasn't made it 5 frames in any of his 3 starts. His stuff is still there, as evidenced by his 12 strikeouts, but his command is really inconsistent right now. Just to set the record straight, a guy with a career minor league BB/9 rate of 3.3 is now walking 7.7 per 9 in the majors and 6.4 per 9 in AAA. Weird.
I don't think it's the level of competition catching up to him, as he pitched in AAA and the majors last year without any problem, but it could be the added pressure and expectations. Either way, he needs to find himself mentally and work his way back to normalcy.
Blake DeWitt|2B/3B|AAA|23-In the last update, I was impressed with DeWitt's growing plate discipline, and it has only gotten better since. When I last checked in, DeWitt had a 10/9 K/BB ratio, but that has since become 13/19 in the last couple weeks. Needless to say, his walk rate (14.0%) and strikeout rate (11.1%) are currently career bests. Heck, even his ISO (.197) is way above what he has accomplished in past seasons.
What suppresses excitement about what he's doing is his .260 batting average. It should be higher though, because while DeWitt's BABIP is a seemingly normal .304, his line drive percentage is a ridiculous 27.0% right now. In fact, if you normalize his splits based on his current skill set (eliminate luck), his slash line comes out to .347/.447/.579/1.026. I think that would be enough to turn heads, don't you?
Hector Luna/Dee Brown/Mitch Jones/Jason Repko|3B/OF/OF/OF|AAA|29/31/31/28-They are all currently raking in the minors, putting up amazing OPS numbers of 1.050/1.027/.979/.939, respectively. However, they are all pretty much organizational depth or worse at this point, and I don't think anybody should really be pining for them to be called up.
Chin Lung Hu|SS|AAA|25-His slash line is currently .224/.283/.303/.586, but he is suffering from terrible luck (.234 BABIP). Still, that doesn't account for the vanishing power and middling peripherals. His defense will always be elite, but 2007 is becoming a distant memory.
Andrew Lambo|OF|AA|20-His slash line of .266/.322/.424/.746 looks pretty atrocious, but i'm actually not that concerned. His peripherals are holding strong (7.7 BB%/20.0 K%), and his power is similar to last year as well (.161 ISO).
So what's the problem? Well, he's still stroking line drives all over the place (23.3%), and his BABIP is a career low (.314), so that could account for the lower than normal average. However, those expecting him to breakout (like me) might need to wait another year as he adjusts to advanced pitching in AA.
Scott Elbert|LHP|AA|23-His 3.63 ERA is basically a product of his May 23rd outing when he gave up 8 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings. He followed that disaster with a gem on May 29th, in which he struck out 9 and allowed only 1 hit over 6 1/3 frames. Overall, Elbert has 49 strikeouts and 18 walks in 39 2/3 innings pitched, so there are the same old strengths and weaknesses.
Josh Lindblom|RHP|AA|22-I'm a little bit worried about Lindblom now, but not because of anything he has done. Rather, i'm concerned about his use. After starting 6 games in AA, the Dodgers decided to give him a relief appearance on May 12th, and he gave up 4 hits in 2/3 of an inning. He followed that up with a perfect 5 frames in relief on May 20th, and then had his second worst start of the season on May 28th. Maybe there's something bigger at work that I just don't get, but i'm not sure what the Dodgers look to accomplish by dicking him around like this.
Josh Bell|3B|AA|22-His walk rate is still excellent, but it has (as expected) come back down to Earth (14.5%). On the plus side, his power continues to rise (.184 ISO) despite the lack of home run pop (4 HR). As it stands right now, his numbers are extremely similar to those that he posted at high-A in 2008, except he's one level higher, his strikeout rate is lower (29.9%/23.1%), and his BABIP is a bit more normal (.360/.349). I am eagerly waiting/hoping for a breakout.
Travis Schlichting|RHP|AA|24-He looks excellent at AA, and I wonder if he could contribute to the major league bullpen right now. In 13 2/3 innings pitched, Schlichting (say it 3 times fast) has given up a single earned run while striking out 12. He has only given up 7 hits, but has allowed 7 walks, which would be the area I want him to improve on.
Victor Garate|LHP|AA|24-Garate is probably ready for his closeup right now. He has an ERA of 1.20 and a WHIP of 0.80 in 15 innings pitched. He has also struck out 17 and walked only 5, while giving up a mere 7 hits.
Though perhaps more important than his overall numbers, out of the 17 left-handed batters that Garate has faced, he has struck out six, allowed only two hits, and has walked none. This amounts to an FIP against of 1.21. Granted, it is a small sample size, but he has always been more effective against lefties, and Ohman looks mighty crappy.
Lucas May|C|AA|24-His slash numbers were actually looking very promising (.298/.391/.468/.859), and his plate discipline was getting much better (14 BB/23 K). Unfortunately, May then broke his wrist and is out for who knows how long. Guy can't catch a break, I guess.
Tony Abreu|2B|AA|24-Remember him? No? Well that's fine because he doesn't seem to remember himself either. He's hitting .297, which is great, but he has only one walk and five extra-base hits in 19 games. This is allegedly the same guy that destroyed AAA pitching as a 22-year-old (.355/.399/.517/.916).
Of course, most of this probably isn't his fault, as he's lost the better part of 2 years to injury, and continues to be nicked up in 2009 with various ailments. At this point, with his injury situation, I doubt we ever get to see his marginal upside come to fruition.
Chris Withrow|RHP|A+|20-His ERA is 5.65, but if you've been following this site regularly, then you already know how I feel about the ERA of minor leaguers. Anyway, Withrow's FIP is 3.25, and the main reason for his high ERA is his impossibly low 55.3 LOB% and a pretty high BABIP against of .352. He has struck out 50 batters in 36 2/3 innings, although I would like to see better control in the future (18 BB).
Steve Johnson|RHP|A+|21-Johnson is bouncing back from a terrible 2008 season in the California League. In 2008, after his promotion from low-A, Johnson got shelled to the tune of a 7.10 ERA in 11 starts. 2009, however, has been a different story for him, as he has a 3.64 ERA in 9 starts this year. More impressive to me is his 60 strikeouts in 47 innings, and his 3.77 FIP. He's somewhat of a sleeper this year.
Pedro Baez|3B|A+|21-Continues to do his thing at high-A ball. Plate discipline (6.3% BB), contact rate (28.4% K), and power (8 HR/.224 ISO) remain essentially the same, but he does seem to be making harder contact this year, so the .276 batting average might be real.
Tim Sexton|RHP|A+|22-Like Johnson, Sexton is bouncing back nicely from a horrific 2008 in which he posted a 6.04 ERA over 141 2/3 innings. This year, he holds a 2.79 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP and 31 strikeouts to 11 walks. His FIP is a solid 3.70, but his strikeout rate will need to jump if he's going to succeed in the future.
Preston Mattingly|OF|A+|21-If the cost of getting Don Mattingly as the hitting coach was having to draft his son in the first round, then i'm sort of okay with that. If not...
"Sup dawg, we heard you like strikeouts, so we put a strikeout in your strikeout so you can be a bust when you bust."Kyle Russell|OF|A-|23-I worried a bit about Russell's increasing strikeout rate and decreasing walk rate last time around, and both have gotten worse yet again. He's still hitting a ton of homers (13), and he's clearly a good hitter (.287/.367/.580/.947), but I don't think he's going to learn much by dominating low-A ball. I'd like to see him skipped to AA just to see if he can make the necessary adjustments against advanced pitching.
Ethan Martin|RHP|A-|20-Nothing really new or exciting has happened with him, i'm just posting this because I would get questions about him if I didn't include him. Like last time, i'd like to see more command, but he's still having a hell of a debut.
Nathan Eovaldi|RHP|A-|19-I previously mocked people who were freaking out about his 8.14 ERA because his peripherals indicated a much better pitcher. Well, in his last two starts he has had 10 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, and his FIP has now dropped to 3.75 (6.29 ERA). His K/BB ratio is still crap though.
Jaime Pedroza|SS/2B|A-|22-His batting average has fallen 31 points since the last update, and it's the main reason his overall line has dipped (.292/.383/.497/.880). The fall isn't surprising since Pedroza is not a .330 hitter, but if he can keep his walk rate high and cut down his strikeouts just a bit, he's gonna be moving up prospect lists quickly because his power is holding strong.
As far as his defense goes, I got to watch a couple games of his the other day, and my conclusion is that...uh...his bat is promising. :o
Tony Delmonico|C|A-|22-I'm not sure anybody has had a worse stretch of late than Delmonico. He had a slash line of .331/.441/.519/.960 at the time of the last update, but that has fallen precipitously to .276/.375/.427/.802. Remember how I worried about his increasing K/BB ratio? Well the news is only getting worse now, as he has struck out 13 times and walked only once since I last checked in. Am I worried? No, but i'd like to see some signs of life.
Devaris Gordon|SS|A-|21-His batting average has dropped from .322 to .293, but that'll fluctuate weekly, so i'm not concerned. His defense is still terrible because of how raw he is, but I still have hopes that he'll eventually learn the position because he has plus defensive tools.
Austin Gallagher|3B|A-|20-The good news is that he's still young, the strike out rate is down (23.8%/20.5%), and the walk rate is up (8.6%/9.3%). The bad news is that everything else I liked about him disappeared. He's not making solid contact anymore, and even when he does, it's usually not going anywhere. His line currently sits at .259/.326/.349/.676, and he needs to show me something fast.
Javy Guerra|RHP|A-|23-I said he was wasting his time in the last update, but he's still down in low-A ball destroying the hopes of young, overmatched hitters. Yes, his ERA is 1.04 and his FIP is 2.08, but the fact that he has 33 strike outs and 8 walks in 26 innings is more impressive to me. His K/9 is at 11.4 for god's sakes, and although he's never had a BB/9 below six as a starter, he's now at 2.8, so the Dodgers need to stop ***** footing around already. Jesus.
Justin Miller|RHP|A-|21-It seems like he's turning the corner a little bit after struggling for a stretch of 5 starts or so. In Miller's last 3 turns, he's gone 18 IP, 14 H, 3 ER, 7 BB, 12 K. Again, the thing I like most about him is his ever growing GB% (66.1!!!). If he could just come up with some kind of "put away" pitch, I would be so much higher on him.
Jon Michael Redding|RHP|A-|21-His last two outings sort of sum up his season thus far. On May 22nd, he gave up six hits and six earned runs in 1 1/3 innings while walking four and striking out just one. On May 27th, Redding gave up 4 hits and zero earned runs in six innings while walking none and striking out 11. His ERA is still a mess (5.13), but his FIP paints a prettier picture (3.62). Still, the inconsistency is frustrating, and while I think he's going to breakout at some point, it may not come in 2009.
Original Story:
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