Found November 18, 2011 on
Earlier today, the Los Angeles Dodgers officially announced an 8 year extension with outfielder Matt Kemp for 160 million dollars. The contract had been announced by sources a few days ago, but wasn’t officially confirmed until now.
I previously looked at the reported terms and came to the conclusion that it was a solid deal, if not a discount for the Dodgers.
As a fan, it’s hard not to be happy about the deal, but there’s still an analytical side that needs to come into play. As such, here’s the breakdown of the contract with WAR and Value projections.
I gave Matt Kemp a baseline of .300/.375/.525/.900 with a wOBA of .385. Accounting for the fact that it’s a considerable regression from .324/.399/.586/.986 and a .419 wOBA in 2011, I don’t think I’m unrealistic in projecting these offensive totals.
As for his defensive metrics, he’s been about -6 runs over ~5100 innings in center field according to DRS and about -16 runs over the same span according to FRAA. Over a full season, it averages out to a range between -2.5 and -3.5.
Overall, the full breakdown is 33 offense, 3.5 baserunning, -3 defense, 22.5 replacement, and 2.5 position.
It was hard to find a baseline for Matt Kemp because his 2010 completely throws a wrench into his development trend. However, I did my best to be realistic.
The WAR regression was done by assuming Kemp maintains his baseline production from ages 27-29, starts to fall off gradually every year from 30-32, and starts declining from 33-34.
While it’s easy to run with the assumption that Kemp will continue to be an 8 win player and use that as a baseline, the prudent thing to do was account for a solid amount of regression and start there. Even with that factored in though, Kemp’s extension should be a good deal for the Dodgers, especially considering that it’s harder to attain surplus value from elitely paid players and that surplus value from elite players is of far greater value when compared to the same from average or mediocre ones.
BEST OF MAXIM
NO ESCAPE FROM L.A.
By signing star outfielder and Triple Crown threat Matt Kemp to an 8-year, $160 million contract, the Dodgers now have a solid nucleus on which the team can build upon for years to come.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Matt Kemp on Friday finalized a contract worth $160 million over eight years to the 27-year-old outfielder.
Details of the deal were first reported Monday by FOXSports.com.
Kemp and general manager Ned Colletti each signed the contract at a news conference at Dodger Stadium. Owner Frank McCourt, who has agreed to sell the team, watched.
The deal is...
The Dodgers signed Matt Kemp to a sentalazing contract this afternoon. Kemp will make $160M over 8 years. Is this a good deal for the Dodgers? I sure hope so. A lot can go wrong in 8 years. Some of the things that should worry Dodgers fans about this contract are Kemp regressing, defense in center field and of course the always unpredictable injury bug. As good as Matt Kemp...
Couldn't find a funny picture, so here's Lee Min Jung instead…
Dodger Thoughts: Jon Weisman looks at the potential for Matt Kemp to become a Dodger legend.
MLB: John Ely and Carlos Monasterios are off the 40-man roster. The Dodgers then added five minor leaguers to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.
The Dodgers added left-hander Michael Antonini, outfielder Alex Castellanos...
Matt Kemp and the Los Angeles Dodgers staked their futures together Friday, finalizing a $160 million, eight-year contract that matches the seventh-highest deal in baseball history.
Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp's eight-year, $160 million contract extension became official on Friday.
Kemp, who is now the highest-paid player in the National League, will make $10 million in 2012, $20 million in 2013 and $21 million in 2014-15. He'll then make $21.5 million per year in 2016-19.
The 27-year-old Kemp had one of the best seasons in baseball this...
Matt Kemp and the Los Angeles Dodgers have finalized a $160 million, eight-year contract, matching the seventh-highest deal in baseball history.
Feeling more comfortable on and off the field, Matt Kemp rebounded from a disastrous 2010 and unleashed one of the great all-around seasons in recent history.
He has the biggest contract in National League history, but the MVP candidate will make only $10 million next season, giving the Dodgers some flexibility.Matt Kemp and Ned Colletti stepped up to a podium at Dodger Stadium on Friday and the general manager laid contract papers in front of the team's star center fielder and said, "You can sign it first."
While their ownership situation appears to be in disarray, the Los Angeles Dodgers may have made themselves more appealing to potential suitors Friday, as they locked up outfielder Matt Kemp with an eight-year contract extension.
RIP cards in Allen & Ginter fall about one per case, from what I've read. I've never purchased a case, and it will be quite some time before I could even afford to buy a case. In my short time collecting, I've picked up two boxes of Ginter - one in 2010 and one in 2011. The best card I've pulled is a Matt Kemp jersey relic from my '10 box, and it's one...
It has been a busy week in baseball. We’ve seen the collective bargaining agreement reupped, the Astros sale was approved (along with a move to the American League) and Matt Kemp got a little richer. Sometimes, these things get missed along the way, but we haven’t forgotten these moves.
Diamondbacks Re-Sign Aaron Hill
Hill has been an enigma over the past several...