Moneyball Effect on The Mets and Jose Reyes

I recently finished Moneyball, and towards the end author Michael Lewis discusses how in 2002, when the Oakland A's acquired Ray Durham, it transformed Durham. Durham, a very aggressive baserunner, used to make single into doubles, doubles into triples, no longer was that aggressive. Durham, who averaged a stolen base every 4.8 games on the White Sox, averaged one stolen base every nine games on the A's. Lewis also noted that current Mets Vice President of player development and scouting, Paul DePodesta ran numbers, on how stealing bases did more harm than good. I began to think to myself, Durham pre-A's sounds a lot like a player we all know and love, Jose Reyes. What effect will the new regime have on Reyes? New Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson's first move was picking up Jose Reyes' option for 2011, at the time Alderson was quoted as saying: "A long-term deal is not out of the question," Alderson said. "It is something we can certainly discuss at a future date." But in an interview last week Alderson said that he would like to first see Reyes play a year before making any decisions. Is that because Alderson and Co. want to see if Reyes can play well in their system? Do they want to see if Reyes could be more like Hanley Ramirez? More broadly, what will happen to the usually run happy Mets? When Citi Field was first built there were many skeptics wondering about the dimensions of Citi Field, the Wilpons said they built the stadium with pitching, defense speed in mind. At Alderson's press conference he was asked about the dimensions, and said he had no plans in the immediate future to move in the fences. Last week in that interview, Alderson said he wants to see Citi Field for a year, before making any decisions, although ideally he would like it to more a hitters park. Which is it? Does Alderson want to live by the Mets philosophy of pitching, defense and speed, or does he want to do the moneyball approach of on base percentage, and slugging percentage?

So I decided to do some research on Alderson's A's, DePodesta's Dodgers, and J.P. Ricciardi's(special assistant to the GM) Blue Jays, to see how run happy, or non-run happy they actually were, to help shed some light on the subject. (All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference)

Alderson first:

Triples Stolen Bases Caught Stealing Total Stolen Bases Attempted 1983 28 235 98 333 1984 29 145 64 209 1985 34 117 58 175 1986 25 139 61 200 1987 33 140 63 203 1988 22 129 54 183 1989 25 157 55 212 1990 22 141 54 195 1991 19 151 64 215 1992 24 143 59 202 1993 21 131 59 190 1994 13 91 39 130 1995 18 112 46 158 1996 21 58 35 93 1997 23 71 36 107 Average 24 131 56 187

Keep in mind many of these years were with Rickey Henderson. In 1983, Henderson had 103 stolen bases alone. If we take out 1983, the averages change to 22, 115, 50, and 165 respectively.

DePodesta:

Triples Stolen Bases Caught Stealing Total Stolen Bases Attempted 2004 30 102 41 143 2005 21 58 35 93 Average 26 80 38 118

While a small sample, we still see what DePodesta's philosophy is, which possibly led to his firing at the end of 2005.

Ricciardi:

Triples Stolen Bases Caught Stealing Total Stolen Bases Attempted 2002 38 71 18 89 2003 33 37 25 62 2004 34 58 31 89 2005 39 72 35 107 2006 27 65 33 98 2007 24 57 22 79 2008 32 80 27 107 2009 13 73 23 96 Average 30 64 27 91

If one were to average out Alderson, DePodesta, and Ricciardi's averages, you would get 26 triples, 92 stolen bases, 40 caught stealing's, and 132 total stolen bases attempts.

Now let's compare those numbers with numbers from the Mets last six seasons(from the beginning of the Minaya regime):

Triples Stolen Bases Caught Stealing Total Stolen Bases Attempted 2005 32 153 40 193 2006 41 146 35 181 2007 27 200 46 246 2008 38 138 36 174 2009 49 122 44 166 2010 40 130 44 174 Average 38 148 41 189

As one can clearly see, the philosophy that the new front office's philosophy differs greatly with what we've been used to. I think that's exactly why Alderson is waiting a year before making any drastic moves, he wants to see how this team can play his baseball, in this ballpark(the way it is). While Alderson has not said it straight out, we see clearly from his words and his actions (or lack thereof) that he sees 2011 as a transition year. He wants to see how the New York Mets play Sandy Alderson's style of baseball. Whatever the case is, there is one thing that we know for sure, there will be no more sacrifice bunts in the first inning.