Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 1/30/13
Todd Frazier‘s professional baseball career has been slowly building to this moment. Throughout both the minors and his first semi-full time season with the Reds, Frazier’s power numbers have steadily improved, and Scott Rolen‘s departure has officially given Frazier Cincinnati’s starting job at third base. Frazier has always struck out at a decent clip (around 22%) but he walks a good amount of the time as well (around 8%). I’d really prefer one (or both) of those numbers be better, but they’re good enough to give Frazier a chance at hitting for a won’t-kill-your-fantasy-team .265-.275 average. His fantasy value is tied almost exclusively to his ability to hit homers, so as long as he can stay in that range this year, Frazier will likely prove to be an undervalued fantasy contributor. At a Glance Strengths: HR, RBI Neutral: SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS Weaknesses: R Player Comparisons Best-case scenario: Josh Willingham (MIN) Likely scenario: Dayan Viciedo (CHW), Nick Swisher (CLE), Michael Cuddyer (COL) Worst-case scenario: Garrett Jones (PIT) Todd Frazier 2013 Fantasy Projection There’s some heavy disagreement about Frazier behind the scenes on Baseball Professor. I wanted to project more power, something in the 27-29 homer range. George was thinking more like 20-22 homers. We semi-compromised on 24 homers, but it took more than one conversation to settle on that number. And some of those conversations bordered on “heated.” Like I said in the intro, Frazier’s fantasy value is almost exclusively tied to his home run power, so his owners this year should be watching his fly ball rate very closely. Last year Frazier hit 19 homers on the strength of a 44.7 FB%, but in limited time in 2011 that rate was just 31.0%. Those rates were taken from Fangraphs, which doesn’t track minor league fly ball rates, so I had to go to a different site (statcorner.com) for those. There’s a bit of disagreement between the two sources on exactly what’s a fly ball versus line drive, but even StatCorner shows that Frazier’s 2012 fly ball rate was a new career high. The safe thing to do is project a slight drop in fly ball rate and watch early on to see if his batted ball trends begin to resemble 2012′s. If they do, I’d be bullish on Frazier’s home run potential. And for good measure, Frazier even stole a bunch of bases in both 2010 and 2011 (14 and 18, respectively). I wouldn’t bank on those kinds of totals in 2013, but don’t be surprised if he begins piling on the steals. Tweet
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

LeBron James says Kevin Love-Celtics trade rumor is false

Michael Jordan gifts Kobe Bryant full set of Air Jordans

Bethune-Cookman football player killed at party

Former UFC heavyweight Kevin Randleman dead at 44

WATCH: Chelsea scores three goals in less than 20 minutes

Broncos safety Shiloh Keo arrested for DUI

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Mountain West admits error, says Boise St. shot was good

WATCH: John Calipari loses his mind, gets ejected

Former Clemson star Tajh Boyd to speak at John Kasich rally

Peyton Manning's alleged not-so-wholesome image

Hawks not shopping Al Horford at NBA trade deadline

Report: Lincecum has been throwing in secret location

Ejected John Calipari tweets “they don’t need me and I love it”

Popovich would 'buy ticket' to watch Warriors play

Jamal Murray destroyed South Carolina defender with dunk

WATCH: Lon Kruger gets Oklahoma hoops squad hype for Kansas test

Texas signee glad he didn’t pick Texas A&M after alleged racism

Dallas Stars have passed the early tests in February

Could Matt Forte become the revival for Patriots run game?

Are the Celtics legimate contenders in the East?

WATCH: Jabari Parker is no joke at NBA Rising Stars Challenge

How Marvelous Marv Throneberry became a Met

WATCH: Filip Forsberg goes beast on Lightning with this goal

Carmelo Anthony on trade rumors: ‘I’m not going anywhere’

Report: Cavaliers shopping Kevin Love, price tag very high

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Ranking the ten best free agent pitcher signings

Who had the best NBA All-Star Game of the last 40 years?

The winners and losers of the 2016 MLB offseason

On Kobe Bryant and taking greatness for granted

Bucks need to choose between wins, development

Fantasy booking WrestleMania 32

Unrestricted free agents each team must consider re-signing

QUIZ: Name the winners of the NBA Slam Dunk Contest

Thank you Daniel Bryan

The timeless greatness of Jaromir Jagr

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker