Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 2/26/13
Chase Headley hit 36 home runs in his first 2,114 major league plate appearances. He hit 31 in 699 plate appearances last year. That’s a homer every 58.7 PA during his first four seasons and one every 22.5 PA last year.Raise your hand if you think that’s happening again.It’s entirely possible that Headley follows up his breakout 2012 season with a similarly power-filled campaign in 2013, but in all my years of playing fantasy sports I have learned there are two things you never pay for: saves and career years.The fact remains that last season’s home run production came despite just a 32.1% fly ball rate due to Headley’s awesome 21.4% HR/FB rate. Players get stronger and mature all the time, but his previous career high HR/FB rate was just 10.7% and that came back in 2008. For the most part he’s been sitting around 5% plus or minus a couple percentage points.Had Headley’s breakout homer total come via a drastically increased fly ball rate and a slightly increased HR/FB rate, I’d feel much more comfortable projecting him to do it again. A drastic change in approach is much easier to reproduce on a yearly basis than a drastic change in skill, especially when it appeared Headley was actually heading in the opposite direction.At a GlanceStrengths: R, RBI, OBP, OPSNeutral: HR, SB, BA, SLGWeaknesses: nonePlayer ComparisonsBest-case scenario: David Wright (NYM)Likely scenario: Hanley Ramirez (LAD), Eric Hosmer (KC), Alex Gordon (KC)Worst-case scenario: Martin Prado (ARI)Chase Headley 2013 Fantasy ProjectionHomers aside, I’m not sure Headley will be able to replicate half of his numbers from last year. Take a look at the Padres lineup and tell me where those 95 runs and 115 RBI are coming from again. If he hits the 13 fewer homers we project, that means he’s driving himself in 13 fewer times. While some of those 13 would-be homers will probably land for doubles, it’s been proven that fly balls land for hits about 12.5% of the time. That means at best about two of those 13 flies end up putting Headley on base with a chance to be driven in.Right there we’re looking at 82 runs and 102 RBI (if we subtract 13 from his 95 runs and 115 RBI from 2012). Given Headley batted .296 with men on base last year versus .278 with the bases empty — he also hit three more homers with men on base despite stepping to the plate 50 fewer times than with the bases empty — I think it’s pretty certain we see his RBI total fall noticeably.After ranking 10th overall last year, though, Headley’s current ADP is just 63.8. He’ll hit for a good average, steal 15 or so bases, and tally 80+ runs and RBI batting third for San Diego. That kind of line makes him a lighter version of David Wright, and his ADP makes him the last player available at third base who’s capable of producing across the board.
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Rex Ryan: Probably ‘a reach’ for Karlos Williams to play Sunday

Lions OC explains Golden Tate's limited role on offense

Dez Bryant doing light running as rehab from surgery continues

Report: Barnes punched Fisher, was begged by child to stop

Former NFL head coach Lindy Infante passes away at 75

Dion Lewis signs two-year contract extension with Patriots


Curry: Harden’s MVP talk ‘doesn’t change what happened’

Jason Garrett addresses Greg Hardy's comments about Tom Brady's wife

Owner on Deflategate: 'Made a mountain out of a mole hill'

Lee: Celtics will turn heads, have similarities to Warriors

Rex makes players do push-ups in practice after penalty calls

Weeden compares QB situation to 'backing up Derek Jeter'

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Women in sports this week: Is this 2015 or 1965?

Three reasons each AL team can win the pennant

Garrett addresses Hardy's comments about Gisele

Five outrageous predictions for NFL Week 5

Rex makes players do push-ups in practice after penalty calls

Weeden compares QB situation to 'backing up Derek Jeter'

Pirates fan dresses as Steve Bartman, fails to curse Cubs

LeBron takes in-game selfie with fans in Cincinnati

MLB postseason power rankings

NHL awards predictions for the 2015-16 season

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Follow Yardbarker