Originally posted on Baseball Professor  |  Last updated 2/12/13
How good was Melky Cabrera last year? After testing positive for a banned substance and getting slapped with a 50-game suspension that limited him to just 113 games on the season, he still ranked 30th overall.No, that’s not a typo and there’s no loophole in our formulas. Cabrera had enough plate appearances in those 113 games (the bare minimum 501 to qualify for the batting average title) for his .346 average to carry significant weight, and toss in 24 homers/steals, 84 runs, and 60 RBI and you have a very solid overall season.With Cabrera’s 2011 and 2012 success now under serious and deserved scrutiny, a lot of people will rightly call into question his chances of repeating said success in 2013.I’m certainly not an expert on PEDs and their effects on players’ stats, but I do know that Cabrera has had similar walk and strikeout rates for the majority of his seven-year career and he’s increased his line drive rate to league average or better in three of the last four years. Maybe PEDs help you in those areas, and maybe they don’t, but I’m pretty sure Cabrera’s recent string of hitting skill isn’t a drug-induced mirage. He’s a good hitter, and he’ll prove it once again in Toronto.At a GlanceStrengths: R, BA, OBPNeutral: HR, RBI, SB, SLG, OPSWeaknesses: nonePlayer ComparisonsBest-case scenario: Shin-Soo Choo (CIN)Likely scenario: Martin Prado (ARI), Torii Hunter (DET), Brandon Phillips (CIN)Worst-case scenario: David Murphy (TEX)Melky Cabrera 2013 Fantasy ProjectionThere’s a lot of buzz surrounding the Blue Jays this year thanks to an impressive offseason. Will it all come together and result in a boatload of Ws for the Jays? Thanks to failed attempts by the Angels, Marlins, and Red Sox over the last few years I have some doubts, but I’m very certain that Toronto is going to score a lot of runs. If Edwin Encarnacion can stay healthy and even scratch the surface of what he did last year, Cabrera will be scoring a lot of those runs.We might soon realize that our projected 90 runs for Cabrera is too conservative, but I also believe he’s probably not the .346 hitter we saw last year. Our xBA formula suggests he was a .311 hitter last year and a .299 hitter in 2011, and in a semi-thought out knee-jerk reaction to his positive test last year, we projected a slight drop off to .291. Frankly, while I truly believe Cabrera is a very good contact hitter, I’m not ready to dive back in on him with 100% confidence. More like 92%.Cabrera’s current ADP on MockDraftCentral.com is 82.7, just a tad higher than we have him ranked here. Honestly, if you were to add a couple runs, one or two homers, a couple RBI, and a few points in average to what we project from him in 2013, you’d get a projected ranking around 70-75, so Cabrera is a fair value in the low 80s if you’re a fan of him. If you’re expecting him to be a great value because of his suspension last year, though, you might be disappointed.
GET THE YARDBARKER APP:
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45
MORE FROM YARDBARKER

WATCH: Stephen Curry dribbles through entire Thunder defense, scores

Bryan Rust's two goals send Penguins to Stanley Cup Final

Wade Boggs honored to have jersey retired by Red Sox

Agent strongly denies report that Chris Berman is retiring

Bryce Harper cuts batting gloves after homering without them

LIKE WHAT YOU SEE?
GET THE DAILY NEWSLETTER:

Jason Garrett on Randy Gregory: ‘He has a long way to go’

Mike Moustakas done for the year with torn right ACL

Did this 50-loss team give others a blueprint to beat the Warriors?

Magic expect to be active players in free agency, could target Al Horford

Report: Rockets to hire Mike D’Antoni as head coach

The Warriors need emotional and tactical solutions

WATCH: Steve Kerr loses control of his mouth at end of Game 5

Why fans shouldn't flip over Sidney Crosby touching the trophy

Dwyane Wade: ‘I don’t want to be on the market at all’

Warren Sapp does not like Timmy Jernigan’s tribute idea

Mark Cuban ‘all for legalized gambling’ in the U.S.

Over 100,000 register for tickets to Texans-Raiders Mexico City game

Markieff Morris detained at airport on suspicion of marijuana possession

Ray Rice speaks to Baltimore Ravens rookies

Report: Mike Holmgren turned down chance to coach the Jets

Lil Wayne & Birdman bet thousands on Madden, then let computer decide who wins

Best regular-season NBA teams not to win a championship

Ezekiel Elliott will have to ‘earn’ Cowboys starting RB job

MLB News
Delivered to your inbox
You'll also receive Yardbarker's daily Top 10, featuring the best sports stories from around the web. Customize your newsletter to get articles on your favorite sports and teams. And the best part? It's free!

By clicking "Sign Me Up", you have read and agreed to the Fox Sports Digital Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. You can opt out at any time. For more information, please see our Privacy Policy.
the YARDBARKER app
Get it now!
Ios_download En_app_rgb_wo_45

Best regular-season NBA teams not to win a championship

Every time an NBA team came back from a 3-1 deficit (and what it means for the Warriors)

How disallowed goals can change the course of NHL games

The five most disappointing MLB teams this season

QUIZ: Identify these NHL Hall of Famers by their nicknames

QUIZ: Name every winner of the Belmont Stakes since 1867

Sniping quotes highlight NHL conference finals animosity

QUIZ: Name every NBA franchise's original incarnation

The 15 biggest playoff upsets in NBA history

Cy Young Award contenders at the quarter mark of the season

Today's Best Stuff
For Publishers
Company Info
Help
Follow Yardbarker