Projecting the 2009 Cubs:  Ryan Dempster

Before we continue with this series, I need to point out that I made an accounting error with the previous 3 projections. Each individual projection was accurate, but for some dumb reason I was thinking replacement level was .350 rather than .300. I knew this, but had it stuck in my head it was .350. A replacement level team would win 48.6 games rather than the 56.7 I had using the .350 winning percentage. 2009 PROJECTIONS Rich Harden | Carlos Zambrano | Ryan Dempster | Kevin Gregg RYAN DEMPSTER STATS Fan Graphs | The Hardball Times | ESPN | Baseball Reference | Cubs.com | Baseball Prospectus Dempster joined the Cubs rotation last season despite evidence to suggest he would not at all be successful doing so. He surprised nearly everyone except for himself, Lou Piniella and Pinetar. Dempster posted a 2.96 ERA in 206.2 innings. He was 10th among all Major League pitchers in Value Wins at 5.1. He was 4th in the NL (not including CC Sabathia who pitched for 2 teams). He was worth nearly $23 million last season and ended up making less than $8 million. Dempster wasn't just an ace last year, he was one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The first thing you'd look at to explain such a difference from performance and expectations would be his BABIP, but his was .288, which is pretty much league average. What he did last season that he hadn't done in previous seasons was control his pitches. He didn't give up as many home runs as you'd expect so we shouldn't anticipate him posting a sub-3 ERA in 2009. That being said, his FIP was just 3.41. That was 6th in the NL, just behind Ben Sheets at 3.38 (does not include Harden or Sabathia who were both better than Dempster). His strikeouts were up a bit in 2008 compared to 2007, but perhaps down a bit compared to 2005 and 2006. His career line drive rate allowed is 20.7% and in 2008 it was 20.1% so nothing out of the ordinary there. His career GB/FB rate is 1.45 and in 2008 it was 1.51. The difference as I already mentioned was in his control and home runs allowed. In his career, Dempster has walked 4.47 per 9 innings, but in 2008 he allowed only 3.31 walks per 9. This was down nearly .75 walks per 9 from his 2007 total of 4.05 BB/9. He'll likely allow a few more walks in 2009. His career HR/9 rate is 0.96 and in 2008 he allowed only 0.61 HR/9. The difference here isn't as much as you may think though. Had he allowed his average home run rate per 9, he'd have allowed 22 home runs. He allowed just 14 home runs. Those 8 additional home runs would be worth about 12 runs. His ERA would still be a very good 3.48, which happens to be almost equal to his FIP in 2008 of 3.41. Dempster threw about 55% fastballs in 2008, which was up quite a bit from the previous 2 years. Not surprisingly, his velocity dropped from 92.0 to 91.1 moving from the bullpen into the rotation. He threw fewer sliders and fewer changeups than he did while in the bullpen. His split statistics weren't ridiculous either. He didn't hold righties to an absurd .500 OPS while lefties hit the crap out of him or have a 2.00 ERA at home while allowing a 4.50 ERA on the road. Righties hit .213/.292/.304 against him while lefties hit .243/.309/.381. His home (2.86 ERA)/road (3.13 ERA) splits are more than reasonable. While Dempster was no doubt a little bit lucky, he was simply a very good pitcher in 2008 no matter how you look at it. There will be some regression in 2009 as it's it's just unlikely he is that good a pitcher. His projections are quite good as you see below. DEMPSTER IP H HR BB K ERA CAIRO 134 121 11 54 115 3.94 MARCELS 146 132 12 58 126 3.67 ZiPS 181 174 17 73 151 4.08 JAMES 195 182 16 90 166 3.89 Chone 139 138 13 56 116 4.08 AVERAGE 162.2 153 14 68 138 3.93 The number of innings pitched is still down because of the years in the bullpen, but as has already been said, playing time is the most difficult thing to project. The other stats are far more reliable and more an indicator of what kind of pitcher Ryan Dempster truly is. Maybe he really is as good as he was in 2008, but that's probably not the case. He's more likely to perform like the above numbers than what he did last season. Most pitchers are more likely to perform closer to their true ability than what they may have done in the season prior. Below are his Wins Above Replacement using my playing time estimate, which consisted of pretty much just picking a number out of a hat. Not really, but close enough anyway. Name League IP_Start ERA W/L Win% WAR_Start WAR $WAR Actual Diff. DEMPSTER NL 190 3.93 1.23 0.55 3.42 3.42 $16.97 $8.00 $8.97 Compare the 3.42 WAR for Dempster to Zambrano's 3.65. Dempster is a good starting pitcher. There's never been any question about his stuff. He's had trouble locating the ball and if 2008 is legitimate in the sense of allowing walks, he could be quite a bit better than these projections. To the surprise of most, Ryan Dempster has become a very good starting pitcher. Running total for team projected wins (updated as I do each profile) Replacement level team: 48.6 wins Kevin Gregg: 0.94 WAR Rich Harden: 5.75 WAR Carlos Zambrano: 3.65 WAR Ryan Dempster: 3.42 WAR TOTAL: 62.4 wins