Prospect Profiles 2008: Josh Bell

Overview-A very talented player, Bell's stock slipped due to concerns about his work ethic. However, after Logan White had a chance to talk with him, White concluded that that Bell was worth a draft pick in the 4th round. Bell has since rewarded White's faith, and continues to put up solid seasons. He's still raw, and has a long way to go, but the future looks very promising.

Hitting-Bell's a switch hitter with above average bat speed that figures to get quicker as he matures. He shows potential from both sides of the plate, but his right handed swing seems to generate more consistent power. Speaking of power, Bell has plus raw power that could eventually make him a 30 homer threat. Like with most raw talents with huge power, Bell tends to fall in love with trying to hit homers instead of sticking with his approach. Couple that problem with below average plate discipline, and he still needs time to make adjustments and improvements.

Fielding-He shows more than enough tools to be able to stick at third in the long run. If he reaches his defensive potential, he could even be well above average. His footwork is improving, and he already has quickness to either side. He has a very strong arm, but some of his errors stem from his inability to control it. While Bell certainly shows flashes of brilliance, he's woefully inconsistent. The silver lining is that inconsistency can generally be solved by improved mental preparation and more practice.

Baserunning-I wasn't really paying much attention to his foot speed, but he didn't seem especially slow or fast.

Mental-Like I said in the 'Fielding' section, he's prone to some inconsistency that I attribute to mental preparation. Also, there's some concern within the organization that he doesn't take care of his body very well.

Health-Nothing that I can think of.

Performance-For a guy whose game is still so raw, Bell is surprisingly statistically productive. His .236 ISO in his first major league season was an immediate sign of the plus raw power to come. He moved up a level in 2007 and still put up a respectable .180 ISO before being overmatched after getting promoted again late in the year. Another good sign is that his BB% increased and his K% decreased as he moved from Rookie to A- ball. So while neither are currently very good, it's an important positive trend that could hint towards the progression to come. His LD% is not very high, so his batting averages are a bit of a mirage at this stage, but that's not much of a concern to me.

Other-He needs to pass on the Twinkies.

Projection-At his best, Bell could develop into a .280-.290 hitter with 30 home run power. I think his plate discipline could improve to the point where he puts up good OBP numbers, though he'll probably always strikeout a bunch. As I said before, his defensive ceiling is well above average.

The most likely scenario is that Bell becomes a solid major league regular. I could easily see him hitting .260-.270 with 20-25 homers, a decent OBP, high strikeouts, and passable defense. My only real concern that he'll bomb out is his tendency to get lazy and overweight. Those two factors can sabotage any prospect, regardless of talent.

Bell was overmatched last year when he got promoted to A+ ball, but the Dodgers will put him there again to start 2008. He doesn't have advanced plate discipline or pitch recognition, so I think he ends up repeating a level at least once at some point in his development, and i'll set a likely arrival date at 2011.