Prospect Profiles 2008: Xavier Paul

Overview-A pitcher in high school, the Dodgers selected Paul as an outfielder in the 4th round of the 2003 draft. After flashing his talent for a couple years in the minors, Paul then hit a bumpy stretch for a few years, but is now showing improvment again. The main question about Paul is whether he'll ever fill out all of his tools to their max potential, or if he's just going to maintain his steady improvement into a lifetime 4th or 5th outfielder.

Hitting-Paul doesn't do anything particularily well, but he doesn't do anything particularily poor either. He has some pop, but he's never going to be a power threat. He makes solid contact, but will never win a batting title. What problems he does have lie in his plate discipline and pitch recognition. On the positive side, those are the two areas in which he has shown the most improvement over the past two years. Still, he will probably always strikeout far too much for somebody who offers merely average pop.

Fielding-Paul plays all 3 outfield positions, but he's merely average in center. He would rate as an outstanding left fielder and an above average defender in right. Paul used to throw in the mid-90s as a pitcher, so he certainly has a good enough throwing arm to play just about anywhere. He also has above average range, and is constantly improving his reads on the balls off the bat. He should be at least an above average defender when his progression is done.

Baserunning-Paul has above average running speed, and he's constantly improving his baserunning skills. He projects to be a solid basestealer, but nothing special.

Mental-Has shown good mental fortitude by pushing through all the obstacles in his career. The obstacles are mentioned in the 'Health' and 'Other' sections.

Health-He suffered from an odd illness that affected his performance for a full year. It supposedly had flu-like symptoms, but eventually it was revealed to be an eye problem. The next year, he suffered from back issues that sapped his power and overall skills. Two unfortunate events that set his progress back a couple years, but they are supposedly non-issues now.

Performance-His LD% has shown a slow but steady increase, and his solid speed allows him to maintain a higher BABIP than expected. His ISO (~.140) seems to have stabalized, and it may indicate that he'll never develop his power much further. His K rate (~22.5%) is unacceptable for his power numbers, and that will need to come down for him to become a valuable major leaguer. On the plus side though, his BB rate jumped from 7.3% to 10.2% while moving up a level of competition, so he's still getting better.

Paul's a little older than he should be for his level of play, but that has less to do with actual struggles in his progression, and more to do with the few years he lost to struggles with injuries and hardship.

Other-He had his home destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.

Projection-His ceiling would put him at about 14-16 HR with a .280-.290 average, and a good number of doubles. Even if he attains that, he will still probably strikeout close to 100 times and might struggle to attain 50 walks in a season.

Still, because he's already quite close to his eventual ceiling, he's a pretty good bet to become a solid major leaguer. If you didn't already notice, a common theme with my report on Paul is that he grades out from below average to above average in just about every category. So while he's probably never going to be good enough to be a major league regular, his versatility and well rounded skills make him a very good shot to fit as a 4th outfielder on any team.

Now that he's healthy, the Dodgers have continued to push Paul by assigning him to AAA. If he puts in a solid year at AAA, he could be called up as soon as late-2008, but the more likely outcome is sometime in 2009.