NFL Week 4: Picks and preview

TV: NFL NETWORK        Line: Cincinnati -7.5

What you need to know:  It’s hardly surprising, but Jacksonville’s winless start has largely been the byproduct of sloppy play on offense. The Jaguars are last in the league with nine turnovers in three games, and Trevor Lawrence accounts for all nine, with seven interceptions and two lost fumbles. Not every pick has been Lawrence’s fault, but playing the blame game misses the point. Regardless of who is turning the ball over, the Jaguars won’t start winning until they clean up that aspect of their play. The Bengals did a few surprising things in Week 3; they beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh by double digits, the first time that has happened since 1995, and they also got good offensive line play, holding the Steelers without a sack for the first time in 76 games, ending an NFL-record streak. Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tyler Boyd have plenty of skill; if Cincinnati’s improved offensive line play continues, the Bengals are capable of being dangerous.

On the spot: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence simply has to make better decisions with the football. His second-half interception on a flea-flicker against Arizona was doubly bad; he missed an open man and threw off his back foot into coverage. He and the Jaguars won’t make real strides until he cleans up his play.

Bengals RB Joe Mixon: An underrated aspect of Cincinnati’s win over Pittsburgh was Mixon’s ability to consistently gash Pittsburgh’s defense for five and six yards. If he keeps Burrow and the rest of the offense ahead of the sticks, Cincinnati will be able to dictate terms on that side of the ball.

The pick: Bengals 26 Jaguars 21

TV: FOX        Line: Washington -1

What you need to know:  Washington’s vaunted defensive line was neutered by Josh Allen’s mobility and the Bills’ spread attack. The Football Team’s clear weakness was exposed in their loss to the Bills; they can’t fall behind against high-powered offenses and expect to slug their way back in it. Fortunately for Washington, the Falcons are a mess all over the field, and Matt Ryan doesn’t present the same kind of challenges that Allen did, to say the least. Atlanta is a disaster on both sides of the ball right now; the Falcons are 29 ^th in the league in scoring offense, and 30^th in scoring defense, and Ryan has been pressured on 24.6% of his dropbacks so far this year. That constant pressure is a major reason that an offense with plenty of weapons is averaging just 5.2 net yards per pass attempt, 27^th in the NFL.

On the spot: Washington Football Team DE Montez Sweat.  Sweat made his presence felt in Washington’s first two games of the season, recording a sack in each. He was neutralized against Buffalo but should be able to have a big day against the Falcons.

Falcons C Matt Hennessy:  Hennessy struggled mightily in a limited role as a rookie in 2020, and so far he hasn’t been any better this year. Per Pro Football Focus, Hennessy’s eight total pressures allowed are the second-most among NFL centers. If he can’t shore up his play, Ryan will spend another afternoon running for his life.

The pick: Washington Football Team 28 Falcons 23

TV: CBS        Line: Buffalo -16

What you need to know:  Houston surprised just about everyone with their Week 1 win over Jacksonville, but things have quickly deteriorated for the Texans. Davis Mills is going to start again for Houston, and head coach David Culley said that the team would start to open things up for Mills in an effort to generate more offense. That might work because he looked his best against Carolina when the tempo was quickened at the end of the first half, but it also might lead to disaster. The Bills have righted themselves quickly after a Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh, posting 78 points in their last two contests. Josh Allen has looked much more like himself in the Bills’ last two wins and was particularly impressive against a tough Washington defensive front. The Bills need to avoid looking ahead in this game, as road dates against Kansas City and Tennessee loom before a bye week.

On the spot: Texans QB Davis Mills. Mills went into last week’s Carolina game doubly hamstrung; it was his first start and the game was on Thursday night. He’ll have had extra time to prepare for this game, and he’ll need to show significant growth from Week 3 for Houston to have even a small chance of victory.

Bills DE Gregory Rousseau:  There is much to like with Buffalo at the moment, but one thing they could use is a star pass rusher. Rousseau leads the team with two sacks, but both of those came against Miami. More consistent production from him could mean the world to the Bills’ defense.

The pick: Bills 38 Texans 10

TV: FOX        Line: Chicago -3

What you need to know: Normally, the Lions are a punchline, but in Week 3, they did everything but win as heavy underdogs against the Ravens. Detroit was largely successful at containing Lamar Jackson and Baltimore’s offense but gave up a crucial 4^th -and-19 before Justin Tucker broke the city of Detroit’s collective heart with an NFL-record 66-yard field goal to win the game as time expired. The Lions’ problem on offense was that Jared Goff and the passing game simply couldn’t generate many explosive plays downfield; Detroit had just two plays of 20+ yards all game. The Bears’ quarterback situation is comical, with Matt Nagy refusing to definitively name a starter as of this writing, and there even being a mystery as to whether or not Nagy will still be calling plays this week, or if that job will fall to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Long story short, the Bears have already started to make a mess of the Justin Fields era, and it appears that the situation will continue on its surreal trajectory.

On the spot: Lions QB Jared Goff. Per Next Gen Stats, Goff’s 6.2 intended air yards per attempt is the fifth-lowest figure in the league. He has to find a way to challenge defenses down the field with more regularity, or the Lions’ offense will further stagnate.

Bears HC Matt Nagy:  Nagy needs to stick with Justin Fields as his starter, but he seems inclined to make the process as secretive and backward as possible. If Nagy won’t be more decisive and will continue to make conservative decisions, the Bears should seriously consider whether he’s the right man to lead the franchise.

The pick: Bears 17 Lions 16

TV: FOX        Line: Dallas -4

What you need to know:  Carolina is undefeated and Sam Darnold looks like a new man now that he’s free of Adam Gase, but the Panthers’ challenge will be heightened for the next few games until Christian McCaffrey recovers from his hamstring injury. C.J. Henderson came over from Jacksonville in a trade, after rookie corner Jaycee Horn was lost, possibly for the year, with a broken foot. Darnold will have his work cut out for him without McCaffrey around, particularly because the Panthers’ offensive line has been iffy thus far. Dallas looks like a serious NFC contender, and Dak Prescott looks like one of the league’s most dangerous quarterbacks. Prescott has piled up yardage, and the Cowboys have made great use of Tony Pollard in the backfield; everything Dallas does offensively seems to be working. While the Cowboys' defense isn’t great, they have so far employed a “bend, don’t break” mentality to perfection, ranking 13 ^th in points allowed despite being 26^th in total defense.

On the spot: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard.  Hubbard figures to get the lion’s share of the touches made available by McCaffrey’s absence, and he’ll have to show that he can be a similar multipurpose threat in order for Darnold and the offense to keep producing.

Cowboys HC Mike McCarthy:  Big-picture, McCarthy has done some smart things, like making sure the explosive Pollard gets touches. Small-picture, he’s continued to be asleep at the switch with things like time management. At some point, that lack of attention to detail is going to come back to haunt him.

The pick: Cowboys 27 Panthers 24

TV: CBS        Line: Miami -2

What you need to know:  Carson Wentz battled through a pair of sprained ankles against Tennessee, but he couldn’t do much, barely completing 50 percent of his passes against a mediocre defense. Still, the plan is for him to keep gutting it out and occasionally getting some rest by skipping practices. That seems like a poor plan for a team that is winless so far and ranks in the bottom third of the league in most offensive categories. Indianapolis’ only hope for improvement rests with Wentz, and that doesn’t seem like cause for optimism. The Dolphins are smarting after losing their second-straight game despite pushing the Raiders to the brink. Jacoby Brissett will be the man for Miami until at least mid-October because of Tua Tagovailoa’s rib injury, but if he shows that he can get the Dolphins in a groove, he might just get the chance to hold onto the job for longer than that. Brissett made a play here and there against the Raiders, but the Dolphins were largely plagued by a lack of explosive plays against Las Vegas.

On the spot: Dolpins TE Mike Gesicki.  It looked like Gesicki was getting phased out of Miami’s offense, but Brissett targeted him 12 times against the Raiders, and Gesicki responded with 10 catches for 86 yards. He could emerge as a red zone matchup problem for a team that desperately needs points.

Colts QB Carson Wentz: Miami’s best attribute this season has been their ability to force turnovers. If Wentz can merely avoid huge mistakes, he should be able to get the Colts their first win, no matter how hobbled he is.

The pick: Colts 22 Dolphins 19

TV: CBS        Line: Cleveland -2

What you need to know:  Cleveland imposed their will on Justin Fields and Chicago in Week 3, and Myles Garrett had a career game, with a franchise-record 4.5 sacks on the day. The Browns’ offense gets most of the attention, but it was their defense that shined against Chicago, limiting the Bears to 47 total yards, including one net passing yard. Rookie linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was impressive, playing his highest percentage of defensive snaps so far on the season, and responding with four combined tackles, including a tackle for loss and a sack he split with Garrett. If Owusu-Koramoah becomes a force in the middle of Cleveland’s defense, the Browns will be that much scarier. Minnesota got a win they desperately needed against Seattle, finally managing to hold an opposing offense in check to some degree. It was Minnesota’s offense that did most of the heavy lifting, though, possessing the ball for nearly 36 minutes and churning out 140 yards on the ground. This game will be a homecoming for former Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, and Minnesota should recognize in the Browns many of their own traits.

On the spot: Browns DE Myles Garrett. Garrett called out his teammates for not doing more when he commanded double and triple teams then went out and backed up his big words against Chicago. If he is able to deliver another big game, Cleveland should be able to handle Minnesota.

Vikings RB Alexander Mattison:  Dalvin Cook may not play this week, and even if he does, he might be limited. That means the onus may again be on Alexander Mattison, who delivered 112 yards on 26 carries against the Seahawks.

The pick: Browns 30 Vikings 27

TV: FOX        Line: New Orleans -7.5

What you need to know:  The Giants look like a train wreck; they couldn’t beat an Atlanta team that looks miserable in all phases, and Joe Judge spent part of his week decrying analytics and generally sounding like a dinosaur. New York’s defense couldn’t hold once the Giants got a 14-7 fourth-quarter lead, and instead surrendered the final 10 points of the game. Saquon Barkley’s production continues to be pedestrian, and Daniel Jones looks like a quarterback who might never make a leap. Other than that, everything is great! The Saints took full advantage of an uncharacteristically sloppy Patriots performance to cruise to a 28-13 win. Jameis Winston avoided the big mistake, though he did make a few risky throws, and ultimately did what was needed to get a road win. The Saints’ offense does need to get going, however, as it is currently 31 ^st in the league in total yards.

On the spot: Giants RB Saquon Barkley. Barkley has 190 yards from scrimmage on 48 touches through three games. The Giants won’t start winning unless he starts making plays, something that’s most likely to happen in the passing game.

Saints HC Sean Payton:  Payton has so far been able to get to a 2-1 record, with both wins against quality opponents, largely on the strength of his defense. He’ll need Winston and the offense more and more as the season progresses; will a delayed home opener be the game where he opens things up?

The pick: Saints 30 Giants 17

TV: CBS        Line: Tennessee -7

What you need to know:  Tennessee’s spotty defense got a gift last week in the form of a significantly compromised Carson Wentz; this week they get another in the Jets, who have struggled mightily under rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. The Titans’ offensive recipe has been exactly what anyone would think; a heavy dose of Derrick Henry, and plenty of play-action passing from Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill’s performances have been uneven thus far, but he’s played well enough for long enough in Nashville to have earned the benefit of the doubt. The Jets have been a complete disaster on offense, with Wilson throwing seven interceptions in three games, and too often missing throws that are there for the taking. Robert Saleh’s presence lends the team an aura of professionalism and accountability that was sorely lacking under Adam Gase, but that sort of thing won’t matter much unless Wilson shakes off his slow start and begins to show signs of improvement.

On the spot: Titans QB Ryan Tannehill.  The Titans came back to their play-calling senses after Week 1, and Henry is doing his part on the ground, so if Tannehill can sharpen up his game, Tennessee is talented enough to run away with the putrid AFC South. This week, he might have to do it without A.J. Brown or Julio Jones.

Jets G Alijah Vera-Tucker:  A major reason for Wilson’s early struggles is the fact that he’s been sacked 15 times, most in the NFL. Vera-Tucker’s PFF pass-blocking grade through three games is 41.2, the lowest of any Jets lineman.

The pick: Titans 27 Jets 16

TV: CBS        Line: Kansas City -7

What you need to know:  Through two games, the Chiefs have learned the hard way that the best teams in the AFC are catching up to them, though Kansas City is still plenty dangerous. Having Patrick Mahomes isn’t a tonic for any other problems, particularly when Mahomes is making reckless throws and turning the ball over, as he did against the Chargers. Philadelphia is a hostile environment, but the Eagles don’t have a Lamar Jackson or Justin Herbert to throw at the Chiefs. That said, Kansas City is 31 ^st in the league in scoring defense, so they might make Jalen Hurts look like a star. Philly had no answers for Dallas once the Cowboys really got going. Hurts has been mediocre since his strong Week 1 start against Atlanta, and while the Eagles’ defense has been solid, the team won’t be going anywhere in the NFC East unless the passing game can develop some consistency. As daunting as Kansas City’s offense is, their defense is so bad that the Eagles could gain some confidence against them.

On the spot: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes.  He’s still the scariest quarterback in the league, but until Kansas City’s defense comes around – if it does at all – he can’t afford to be as cavalier with some of his throws like he was against the Chargers.

Eagles RB Miles Sanders:  Sanders had all of two carries against the Cowboys and just five touches overall. Perhaps some teams can get away with that; not the Eagles, though. Philadelphia needs to get Sanders much more involved early in this game.

The pick: Chiefs 33 Eagles 27

TV: FOX        Line: Los Angeles -4

What you need to know:  Pop quiz: Who is the highest-scoring team in the NFL through three games? You guessed it, the Arizona Cardinals. Kliff Kingsbury’s offense hasn’t been held below 30 points yet this year, though they did benefit from a pick-six against Jacksonville. The Cardinals have also benefitted from an opportunistic defense that has forced seven turnovers through three games, second-best in the NFL. Arizona does struggle against the run, however, giving up 5.4 yards per carry, second-worst in the league. The Rams made a statement, harassing Tom Brady and throttling the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 3. The 34-24 final was not indicative of how much Los Angeles controlled play, particularly in the second half. Matthew Stafford showed exactly why the Rams acquired him, outdueling Tom Brady and hitting a big play to DeSean Jackson to break the game open. The only thing the Rams haven’t done well yet is run the ball; given the results, that’s hardly a big concern.

On the spot: Cardinals RB James Conner. Conner is a straight-ahead smasher of a running back. If he can neutralize the Rams’ defensive front by running right at them with some success, it will make Murray’s day a lot easier, and give the Cardinals a chance at the upset.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp:  Kupp was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for September, as he averaged 122.3 receiving yards per game and had five touchdowns. If he continues producing at this level, Arizona – not to mention everyone else – will have an impossible time stopping the Rams.

The pick: Rams 37 Cardinals 31

TV: FOX        Line: San Francisco -3

What you need to know:  Seattle’s bombs-away offense put up big yardage numbers against the Vikings but sputtered to just 17 points on the way to the Seahawks’ second straight loss. Part of the problem is a defense that’s been on the field, on average, longer than any other; Seattle’s opponents average 3:34 of possession time per drive, the highest number in the league. Combine that with a quick-strike offense and it’s a recipe for failure, particularly late in games. It shouldn’t be surprising, then, that Seattle has been outscored 30-6 in the second half of their last two games. Until that issue gets fixed, Russell Wilson and the offense will have to be perfect. San Francisco did everything right in rallying back against Green Bay, except for one thing; the 49ers left too much time for Aaron Rodgers, who made a perfect throw over the middle to Davante Adams to eventually set up Mason Crosby’s game-winning field goal. Jimmy Garoppolo was great on San Francisco’s final drive, but his overall numbers caused speculation that Trey Lance might take over sooner rather than later. Kyle Shanahan threw cold water on that, but if Garoppolo doesn’t strafe Seattle’s defense, clamoring for Lance will grow louder.

On the spot: Seahawks LB Jordyn Brooks.  San Francisco loves to challenge linebackers with not only George Kittle, but also their zone running scheme that puts tackling and gap control at a premium. If Brooks isn’t on his game, Seattle will get shredded.

49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo:  The Niners are 2-1, and other than nicely asking Kyle Juszczyk not to score so quickly, there’s not much else that Garoppolo could have done with his final possession short of asking Juszczyk to fall down shy of the goal line to kill clock. Still, if San Fran falls to 2-2, the calls for Lance will grow louder.  

The pick: Seahawks 30 49ers 24

TV: CBS        Line: Denver -1

What you need to know:  Baltimore needed a miracle kick – okay, since it was Justin Tucker, maybe not a miracle – to beat the Lions. The Ravens’ performance to that point against Detroit was underwhelming, to say the least. Baltimore never really got things going on the ground to a significant degree, and splash plays from Lamar Jackson were their only offense. Against the Lions, that might be enough, but against a team like Denver, it won’t cut it. Baltimore has their work cut out for them against the best defense in football, one with a, particularly stingy secondary. The Broncos are the surprise team of the first month of the season, and while their great defensive performances have come against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets – combined wins: zero – what Vic Fangio’s group is doing isn’t fluky. Kyle Fuller, Patrick Surtain II, and Justin Simmons give Denver the best secondary in football, at least right now, and Teddy Bridgewater is playing steady, efficient, nearly mistake-free football. If that keeps up, Denver will rack up wins, if not style points.

On the spot: Ravens WR Marquise Brown.  Brown already has three drops on the season, halfway to his 2020 total of six. Passing will be hard enough against Denver; Brown can’t make it worse with unforced errors.

Broncos LB Von Miller:  The Raiders proved how disruptive a consistent pass rush can be against even a top-drawer athlete like Jackson. Miller already has four sacks, and the Ravens’ line is not a good pass-blocking unit. A big day for Miller likely means a 4-0 start for Denver.

The pick: Broncos 24 Ravens 20

TV: CBS        Line: Green Bay -6.5

What you need to know:  Rumors of the Steelers’ demise might not be exaggerated at all. Ben Roethlisberger and the offense have been putrid. The running game remains the worst in the NFL through three games, and Najee Harris has taken significant punishment on many of his touches. Roethlisberger has so far been completely unwilling to attack the middle of the field with any depth and to compound the team’s problems, the offensive line appears to be getting worse, not better, with each passing game. The defense should be getting healthy this week, but 1-5 – or worse – doesn’t seem out of the question for the Steelers. Green Bay is trending in the opposite direction. Aaron Rodgers looked like his vintage self against San Francisco, racing out to a big lead, then delivering a signature drive with less than a minute left to set up a game-winning field goal. No one knows what the future holds beyond this season in Green Bay, but at least in the present, the Packers are still a force to be reckoned with, especially if their defense continues to come along.

On the spot: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger. Roethlisberger’s critics are out in force after three games and with good reason. Pittsburgh’s passing game looks the same as it did to end 2020. If the future Hall of Famer can’t successfully open things up downfield, Pittsburgh has no chance.

Packers DE Preston Smith:  Smith has one sack on the season thus far, but with the Steelers’ offensive line still a major problem, he could find himself in the backfield with regularity; if that happens, it could turn the game into a rout.

The pick: Packers 30 Steelers 16

TV: NBC        Line: Tampa Bay -6.5

What you need to know: Has there been a more anticipated regular-season game in NFL history? Certainly not this century. Normally, a battle between a 2-1 contender and a 1-2 team with a rookie quarterback would be interesting, but not grounds to drop everything and watch for three hours. Of course, this is really a matchup between Tom Brady and Bill Belichick. Will it look more like a grudge match, or an intense battle where mutual respect is displayed? If we’ve come to know anything about both men, and the way they parted company in New England, the answer is almost assuredly the former. In any event, Tampa’s offense looks sharp under Brady, particularly on throws of over 10 yards. Brady has 600 yards on those such throws, most in the league thus far, per PFF. What does New England do best? You guessed it, defend throws of 10 or more yards. Also per PFF, they allow a passer rating of 30.3 on those throws, the lowest mark in the league.

On the spot: Buccaneers QB Tom Brady. Brady already has a Super Bowl title in his first post-Belichick year. If he pummels his former coach in his front of the fans that used to cheer for both of them, it might put to rest once and for all the question of which man was more responsible for the Patriots’ dynasty.

Patriots HC Bill Belichick: Belichick has a rookie quarterback, a defense that’s trending in a good direction, and no doubt a burning desire to knock Brady down a peg with a masterful game plan. His main problem is that he might not have the players to do it.

The pick: Buccaneers 28 Patriots 24

TV: ESPN        Line: Los Angeles -3

What you need to know:  Well well well, look at the Las Vegas Raiders. Jon Gruden’s squad is 3-0 after an overtime thriller over Miami, largely thanks to Derek Carr’s high-level performance thus far. Carr has looked comfortable and confident and has gotten an assist from Peyton Barber, who has stepped in and performed capably in Josh Jacobs’ absence. The Raiders seem to be coming into their own offensively more and more with each passing week, and if their talented defensive front can keep getting pressure on a regular basis, they should be a factor all year in the rugged AFC West. The Chargers scored a signature victory on the road in Kansas City last week, with Brandon Staley earning plaudits – and gasps – with his hyper-aggressive late-game decisions. Justin Herbert badly outplayed Patrick Mahomes and looks like a worthy adversary to Mahomes for the next decade or more. What’s scary about the Chargers is that their defense still looks like it has plenty of room to grow, and as long as Derwin James stays healthy. James played most of the Chiefs game with a separated shoulder, but as long as he can deal with the pain moving forward, Los Angeles should improve on that side of the ball.

On the spot: Raiders CB Trayvon Mullen.  Casey Hayward is the better of Las Vegas’ corners, but so far Mullen has held up well opposite him, surrendering just a 60.2 passer rating when targeted. If he keeps that up, the Raiders’ defense will continue to grow.

Chargers HC Brandon Staley:  Staley’s decision to go for it on fourth down in a tie game against the Chiefs was bold, and was praised because it worked, even though the most ardent analytics fans were shocked by it. The Chargers have plenty of talent; Staley needs to continue pushing the right buttons to maximize it.

The pick: Chargers 28 Raiders 23