NFL Week 6: Picks and preview

STREAMING: PRIME VIDEO            LINE: Washington -1

Commanders at the quarter pole: This is one bad football team. If Jahan Dotson wasn’t showing out early in his pro career, there would be nothing whatsoever to get interested in. Wentz has six interceptions in five games. That’s the second-most in the league. I would love to tell you that there is a coherent plan in place for Washington, but that would be a lie. The rest of the NFC East is a combined 13-2, by the way. Long-term prognosis: Grim, until they find a quarterback, which might be never, at this rate. At least Ron Rivera is telling it like it is.

Bears at the quarter pole: It feels like a miracle that Chicago has two wins, not to mention two one-score losses, despite having a quarterback who has completed 49 passes all season. That’s an average of just under 10 per game. This is not 1947. Modern offenses are not running the single-wing. Fields played reasonably well against the Vikings last week, but is this long-term development plan on track? Tick, tock, Chicago. Long-term prognosis: Not great, until and unless a modern passing game takes shape.

Look smart to your friends:

-Want a reason to bet on Washington? Wentz has a chance to join Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson as the only quarterbacks ever to win seven straight Thursday night starts.

-Robert Quinn is likely to menace Wentz; he’s looking for his third-straight primetime game with both a sack and a tackle for loss.

The pick: Bears 23 Commanders 20

TV: FOX            LINE: Tampa Bay -8

Buccaneers at the quarter pole: Tampa has had its issues, and Tom Brady’s personal life seems, uh, messy, to say the least, but wouldn’t you know it, this team is still 3-2 and atop the NFC South. The schedule is friendly, with a Pittsburgh-Carolina road swing, before tougher games at home, followed by a bye week. I expect the offensive line and Brady to play better as the year goes on, and the defense should be plenty stingy. Long-term prognosis: The preseason and first five games have been plenty strange, but if they stay healthy, the Buccaneers can win the NFC.

Steelers at the quarter pole: Well, this is ghastly. T.J. Watt won’t be back until mid-November, according to sources , but at this point, what’s the rush? The Steelers and “worst team in the NFL” are never in the same sentence, but Mike Tomlin’s team has a plethora of holes, and it sure seems like his uncanny ability to drag teams to a .500 finish or better is finally going to run out, and in ugly fashion. Long-term prognosis: It mostly depends on Kenny Pickett, but independent of him, this is a team that needs to get a lot younger and a lot more talented. Top-five pick incoming!

Look smart to your friends:

-Brady has absolutely dominated the Steelers in his career. In 12 career regular-season starts against Pittsburgh, he has 3,744 passing yards, 30 touchdowns (29 pass, 1 rush) and a 111.1 passer rating.

-Pickett has a tall order ahead of him, but if he tops 300 passing yards in this game, he’ll become just the fourth rookie quarterback ever with 300+ passing yards in each of his first two career starts.

The pick: Buccaneers 30 Steelers 17

TV: FOX            LINE: San Francisco -5.5

49ers at the quarter pole: The Jimmy Garoppolo offseason saga sure worked out in San Francisco’s favor, didn’t it? Things could have collapsed after Trey Lance’s season-ending injury, but Garoppolo has come in, steadied the ship, and San Francisco looks like the most complete team in a flawed NFC West. Of course, if Nick Bosa’s groin injury lingers the rest of the year, things will get much tougher. Long-term prognosis: San Francisco is fond of delivering punches to the mouth on both sides of the ball. That style tends to look better and better as the season wears on.

Falcons at the quarter pole: Atlanta has shown plenty of fight all year, and they’re still very much in the mix. That said, what we’ve seen so far seems like the best that they’re capable of, as long as Marcus Mariota is the quarterback. They seem to know that, too, which is probably why they were willing to trade Deion Jones to the Browns for a late-round pick last Sunday night. Long-term prognosis: It’ll be Desmond Ridder time before too long. Be nice if the Falcons could build a defense for him.

Look smart to your friends:

-Garoppolo has been a road warrior throughout his career; he is one of three active quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are the others) with a .700+ win percentage on the road since 2017.

-Mariota had success in his only previous start against the Niners, posting 241 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions against them in 2017.

The pick: 49ers 26 Falcons 23

TV: CBS            LINE: Cleveland -2.5

Patriots at the quarter pole: Ah yes, the un-killable Patriots are still lingering around, ruining all our fun by bludgeoning the Lions, and staying in the race in the bunched-up AFC East. My suspicion is that the Patriots will struggle badly against good teams, but typically beat bad ones. What does that make them, you ask? A pretty average team. Here’s a thought exercise: What if Bailey Zappe balls out while Mac Jones recovers? What would Bill Belichick do? Long-term prognosis: The schedule is hardly daunting until December, so expect New England to hang around like that awkward guy who doesn’t realize the party is over and it’s time to go.

Browns at the quarter pole: The Browns know exactly what they are, and if their fourth-round kicker had made his most recent field goal attempt, they would be 3-2 right now. This is a solid football team, probably even a good one. The great unknown is how things change when Deshaun Watson returns to the lineup. Cleveland’s schedule looks absolutely brutal from now until Watson’s eligible return game against the Texans, so the next six games will effectively decide their season. Long-term prognosis: The Browns’ style means most of their games will be close. If they manage to stick around .500, they’ll be dangerous down the stretch.

Look smart to your friends:

-Matthew Judon is the only player in the NFL with a sack in each of the first five weeks of the season, and can become the first player since 2018 with a sack in each of his team’s first six games.

-Similar to Judon, Nick Chubb is the only player in the league with 100+ scrimmage yards in each of the first five weeks, and can become the first player since 2018 with 100+ scrimmage yards in each of his team’s first six games.

The pick: Browns 30 Patriots 24

TV: FOX LINE: Green Bay -7.5

Jets at the quarter pole: The Jets? 3-2? In this economy? New York hasn’t beaten a great quarterback yet, but then again, they had to play Joe Flacco for three games to start the year. Zach Wilson looks promising, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson have energized the skill corps, and Quinnen Williams is anchoring a defense that, dare I say, is starting to believe in itself. The jury is out on whether the Jets are good, but they are interesting. Long-term prognosis: Packers, Broncos, Patriots, Bills, Bye Week, Patriots. We’ll find out what the Jets are made of by Thanksgiving.

Packers at the quarter pole: It was jarring to watch Green Bay fail to hold a huge lead on the Giants, of all teams. Even accounting for the inherent weirdness of playing in London, you just assumed that Aaron Rodgers would figure out a way to sneak back across the Atlantic with a win. That he didn’t should be a sign that nothing will be easy for this team all year, despite some impressive overall stats. Long-term prognosis: Green Bay is still a contender, as long as they start turning offensive yards into points.

Look smart to your friends:

-Hall and Michael Carter are one of only two AFC running back tandems (Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the other) each with 2+ rushing touchdowns on the season.

-Allen Lazard has quietly put together a nice season, and has receiving touchdowns in four of his last five home games, and six of his last seven games overall.

The pick: Packers 28 Jets 21

TV: CBS            LINE: Indianapolis -2

Jaguars at the quarter pole: Ah, Jacksonville. Just when we were ready to crown them, they go and lose to the Texans, dropping to 2-3 in the process, and muddying the AFC South waters. Dropping a game where you outgain your opponent by 174 yards is not a good look, to put it mildly. Doug Pederson is clearly helping Trevor Lawrence’s development, but the former top pick needs to stop turning the ball over so much, and soon. Long-term prognosis: The road ahead looks rough; Pederson must get a young, talented team to believe.

Colts at the quarter pole: I have no earthly idea what to make of the Colts, who somehow beat the hapless Broncos in one of the worst primetime games ever put on television. I do know one thing, though: Indy needs to get Jonathan Taylor healthy, and needs to get its running game going, or this season is going to be an exercise in inconsistency and frustration. Long-term prognosis: Matt Ryan (a league-high 7 interceptions) can’t be this sloppy all year, right? If he takes care of the ball, Indy stays in the race.

Look smart to your friends:

-Josh Allen has terrorized the Colts, and is bidding for his third-straight game against Indianapolis with 2+ sacks.

-Stephon Gilmore was the star of an otherwise awful Thursday night game last week, and he’s now looking for his third game in a row against Jacksonville with 5+ tackles and a pass defensed.

The pick: Jaguars 30 Colts 23

TV: FOX            LINE: Minnesota -3

Vikings at the quarter pole: This again? I slag Kirk Cousins – righteously, I might add – every chance I get, and what does he do? He goes out and starts 4-1, including a dominant win to open the season against Green Bay. I’d like to stress that it is very annoying that Cousins has been average to above average in four of five games. This is typical Cousins behavior, and yet the schedule suggests that Minnesota should be 7-1 by the time they meet the Bills in Week 10. Long-term prognosis: Oh, I don’t know, probably a 10-7 or 11-6 finish, followed by a spectacular postseason implosion. Tale as old as time.

Dolphins at the quarter pole: Miami is two teams: With Tua Tagovailoa and without him. They might be the latter for much longer than they’d like because of their own carelessness with his brain health. No matter what happens the rest of the way, Miami will face scrutiny whenever Tagovailoa comes back to the lineup, to say nothing of the fact that the entire organization and fan base will be holding their collective breath whenever he takes a hit. Long-term prognosis: With a healthy Tua, no one wants to see them in the playoffs. Without? Season. Over.

Look smart to your friends:

-Justin Jefferson has made plenty of history already, and he has a chance to become just the fourth player ever with 10+ catches and 125+ receiving yards in three straight games.

-It might be tough to replicate given the Dolphins’ current quarterback situation, but Tyreek Hill went off in his only career game against Minnesota, with 6 catches, 140 yards and a touchdown.

The pick: Vikings 24 Dolphins 23

TV: CBS            LINE: Cincinnati -2

Bengals at the quarter pole: It seems like a pretty easy evaluation, really. Look at Joe Burrow’s sack totals as a bellwether for how things are going in Cincinnati. He was sacked 13 times in Weeks 1 and 2, and the Bengals went 0-2. He’s gone down five times in the three games since (though he took some legitimate punishment against Baltimore) and the Bengals are 2-1 in that span. Protect Joe and watch the results roll in. Easy, right? Long-term prognosis: The next four games before the bye are an opportunity; 3-1 or 4-0, both realistic possibilities, would put Cincinnati in the AFC North driver’s seat.

Saints at the quarter pole: I would like to tell you that I have a handle on the Saints; I watch the games, after all, and get paid to draw conclusions about what I see. I can’t say I know what to make of New Orleans, though. They’ve played the Vikings very tough, got sabotaged by turnovers against the Bucs and Panthers, but have barely beaten the Falcons and Seahawks. Here’s my best guess: If the Saints commit to running the ball more, and take a more risk-averse offensive approach, they should be a tough out for every opponent. Long-term prognosis: The Saints are minus-8 in turnover differential. Fix that up and they’ll likely hang around in the wild card discussion.

Look smart to your friends:

-Burrow has been exceptional in his last nine road games, totaling 20 touchdowns (19 pass, 1 rush) and a 104.3 passer rating.

-Taysom Hill became just the third player ever (Ronnie Brown and LaDainian Tomlinson) with 100+ rush yards, 3+ rushing touchdowns and a touchdown pass in a single game.

The pick: Bengals 26 Saints 17

TV: CBS            LINE: Baltimore -6

Ravens at the quarter pole: It’s probably tempting for Baltimore to lament their 3-2 record, given that both losses involved big blown leads – and to good teams, no less. Still, Baltimore is in first place despite having some major growing pains on defense. Lamar Jackson is a short-list MVP candidate yet again, and now the schedule softens for the next two months, giving the Ravens a real chance to go on a big run. They could, and perhaps should be 5-0 or 4-1, but 3-2 still isn’t bad. Long-term prognosis: If Jackson stays healthy, Baltimore wins the division.

Giants at the quarter pole: Brian Daboll is 12 games away from winning coach of the year. All the Giants have to do is find their way to 10 wins. Surprisingly, Daboll is doing it with the running game after presiding over an offense in Buffalo that almost ignored that facet of the sport entirely. New York is also leaning on a stingy defense, and even though there’s still a sense that the other shoe is going to drop, rallying to beat Green Bay last week rightfully opened some eyes. Long-term prognosis: A healthy Saquon Barkley plus Daboll’s offensive acumen gives the Giants a puncher’s chance, but at some point, a passing game has to materialize.

Look smart to your friends:

-Here’s a simple, fun fact: Jackson has never lost a game as a starter against an NFC opponent.

-Barkley leads the NFL with 676 scrimmage yards this season, and along with Nick Chubb is one of two players with 85+ scrimmage yards in each of the first five weeks.

The pick: Ravens 24 Giants 19

TV: FOX            LINE: Los Angeles -9.5

Panthers at the quarter pole: It comes as no surprise that David Tepper, a man who once bought his old boss’s house just to tear it down – no, really – decided to pull the ripcord on Matt Rhule’s tenure, even if it meant paying Rhule $40 million not to coach the Panthers. Carolina’s offense is atrocious, and there aren’t really many pieces in place on the defensive side, either. Tepper is going to try and hit a home run with his next hire, but other than money – admittedly a powerful lure – what is there that’s appealing about this job? Long-term prognosis: Bad, and for a while, unless the next coach is a miracle worker.

Rams at the quarter pole: Good gracious, this is a frustrating team. On one hand, they’re the defending Super Bowl champs, so they can’t be counted out. On the other hand, Matthew Stafford keeps turning the ball over, and they haven’t gotten things kickstarted yet. It felt like Los Angeles’ loss to the 49ers was a statement in more ways than one. Again, I don’t want to write these guys off, but they’ve been a disappointment, to say the least. Long-term prognosis: Figure out the offense (perhaps this guy could help), or the defense of last year’s Super Bowl will be over after Week 18.

Look smart to your friends:

-P.J. Walker will get the start in this game, and with a win, would join Kyle Allen, Devlin Hodges and Cooper Rush as undrafted quarterbacks to win their first three career starts since 2000.

-Cooper Kupp has 100+ receiving yards and a receiving touchdown in six straight home games, the longest such home streak in NFL history.

The pick: Rams 34 Panthers 14

TV: FOX            LINE: Arizona -2.5

Cardinals at the quarter pole: For the record, I don’t think the Kyler Murray-Cardinals marriage is going to work out. Yes, the Cards are just a game out of first place in a division where all four teams have at least two wins, but the overwhelming feeling I have when I watch him is that he’s never going to be consistently great enough to drag the team to the top of the NFC. Their first five games are a microcosm of that. Long-term prognosis: The schedule isn’t particularly kind, and things could get worse before they get better. Seat getting warm, Kliff?

Seahawks at the quarter pole: Raise your hand if you thought that the Seahawks would have the league’s seventh-best scoring offense and eighth-best total offense through three games, while possessing the league’s worst total defense and second-worst scoring defense. Geno Smith hasn’t been good, he’s been objectively great, with a 113.2 passer rating. Can he keep it up? All prior evidence suggests he can’t, but… Long-term prognosis: The Geno Magic probably runs out before the defense shapes up, but Seattle has a chance to hang around all year.

Look smart to your friends:

-Zach Ertz has had plenty of success against the Seahawks. In his past three games versus Seattle, he’s got 27 receptions, 263 yards and 3 receiving touchdowns.

-Smith – yes, Geno Smith – is the only quarterback in the league with a 115+ passer rating in three games this season, and leads the NFL in completion percentage (75.2) and passer rating (113.2).

The pick: Seahawks 28 Cardinals 27

TV: CBS            LINE: Buffalo -2.5

Bills at the quarter pole: This is the best team in the NFL. Even with Micah Hyde done for the year, and even with some other injuries to work through. Josh Allen looks unstoppable, and the Bills’ only loss was of the fluky variety. One thing I wouldn’t do if I was Buffalo is trade for Christian McCaffrey, something that’s churned around the rumor mill. Sure, the Bills would like to run the ball better, but that’s a first-world football problem if I’ve ever seen one. Long-term prognosis: Buffalo is going to win the Super Bowl unless Allen or a combination of several other players suffer season-ending injuries.

Chiefs at the quarter pole: This might be the second-best team in the NFL. Kind of a big problem, then, that they have to go through Buffalo to get back to the Super Bowl. Kansas City might not have the same downfield fear factor now that Tyreek Hill is gone, but it’s hurt them so bad that they are…first in the league in scoring. What might hold them back is a defense that has allowed at least 20 points to every team they’ve faced. Long-term prognosis: This looks like an AFC Championship Game preview…maybe Sean McDermott will forget to squib kick this year, too.

Look smart to your friends:

-It’s a safe bet that Gabe Davis will have a big game. In case you forgot, he posted career highs in catches (8), receiving yards (201) and receiving touchdowns (4) in the teams’ 2021 divisional round meeting.

-L’Jarius Sneed has been busy in the Kansas City secondary. He’s the only defensive back in the NFL with 7+ tackles in each of the first five weeks of the season.

The pick: Bills 35 Chiefs 34

TV: NBC            LINE: Philadelphia -6.5

Cowboys at the quarter pole: Listen, I don’t feel bad for the Cowboys, ever. Nor do I feel that they are capable of being the subject of a feel-good underdog story. You forfeit that when you go with the whole “America’s Team” branding. That said, what Cooper Rush and the defense have done to get this team to 4-1 is nothing short of incredible. Rush is going to get at least one more start, but no matter what happens, he’s already saved Dallas’ season. So has Dan Quinn, who’s going to get another head-coaching job because of his defense’s efforts. Long-term prognosis: The Lions, Bears, Colts, and Texans on the schedule? Dallas should be playoff-bound.

Eagles at the quarter pole: See everything above about Dallas not being capable of generating a feel-good story? I feel the same way about the Eagles. That said, there are no weaknesses here, and it’s hard not to be impressed by Jalen Hurts’ development, as well as the overall complete nature of the Eagles. There’s no weak spot on this roster, and A.J. Brown has been a huge addition. Philly does everything well, and right now, they look like the class of the conference. There might not be a close second, either. Long-term prognosis: The Eagles should start 10-0. This is a Super Bowl-caliber team.

Look smart to your friends:

-Trevon Diggs puts up big numbers against everyone, but in particular Philadelphia. The Cowboys corner has 4 interceptions and 8 passes defensed in three career games against the Eagles.

-Hurts is an end zone magnet; he already has 7 career games with 2+ rushing touchdowns, tied for second-most all-time by a quarterback.

The pick: Eagles 23 Cowboys 17

TV: ESPN            LINE: Los Angeles -5

Broncos at the quarter pole: Not a fun team! Russ can’t cook, Nathaniel Hackett can’t coach, and the Broncos can’t do anything to speak of offensively. This is the Frankenstein’s monster of coach-quarterback pairings, and the only thing more cringeworthy than watching them attempt to produce points is Wilson’s continued insistence on making “Let’s Ride” a catchphrase. Russ: It’s not happening. Neither is anything good this year in Denver. Long-term prognosis: Hackett might not last the season, and the buyer’s remorse is going to be strong when it comes to the Wilson contract.

Chargers at the quarter pole: When Justin Herbert hurt his ribs, it felt like the whole season was going to dissolve for Los Angeles, as it has so many times before. A win against Houston and a gut-check, come-from-behind effort to beat the Browns have changed the narrative back to a more positive one. The Chargers have a chance to make some hay in their next three games before a rough San Francisco-Kansas City gauntlet in mid-November. Long-term prognosis: Assuming the sky doesn’t fall in some other horrifying way (a big assumption) the Chargers should make the playoffs and be a team no one wants to see.

Look smart to your friends:

-It feels like it might take him an eternity to get there, but Wilson needs 4 touchdown passes to join Peyton Manning as the only players ever with 300+ touchdown passes in their first 11 seasons.

-He has just two starts on Monday Night Football, but Herbert has been dominant, with 7 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 114.7 rating in those two games.

The pick: Chargers 30 Broncos 16