Despite a slew of injuries to their 2023 starting rotation, the Houston Astros own a record above .500 in 75 games. With José Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis Garcia going down, the Astros responded by calling up some of their top and lower-ranked prospects. Players like Hunter Brown, Brandon Bielak, and J.P. France made their major league debut between April and May, for example.
France, a 432 overall draft pick, emerged in early May and continues to pitch in the Big Leagues. In eight games as a starting pitcher, he owns a 3.42 ERA, .230 BA against, and ~8% BB. While his 19.3% strikeout rate is relatively low, France countered with a 45.1% ground ball and 35.9% hard-hit rate. His HH% currently ranks in the 70th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.
Up to this point, he relies more on putting balls in play and generating soft contact than racking up K’s. Nonetheless, he’s been effective.
As a rookie, France features a ~93 mph fastball (44%), ~86 mph cutter (16%), ~80 mph slider (15%), ~82 mph changeup (13%), and ~76 mph curveball (11%).
What specifically though, makes him a viable starter? Let’s dive into Astros’ pitcher J.P. France and find out.
Player Profile on Astros’ Pitcher J.P. France
Splits (RHB/LHB)
Facing right-handed batters, J.P. France owns a .257/.316/.505 line in eight starts. Against left-handed batters, he offers a much stronger line, at .192/.265/.274. It’s also worth noting that he’s given up seven home runs against RHB, but only one against LHB.
Thus, he features reverse split tendencies early on this season.
Exit Velocity, Barrel %, and Sweet Spot %
In eight starts, the average EV against France is 88.9 MPH. While this ranks in the 53rd percentile as mediocre, it’s not bad by any means. In fact, top starters like Gerrit Cole of the New York Yankees and Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks currently own an EV of 89.2 and 91.2, respectively. So he’s limiting a fair amount of hard contact, with the exception of giving up a home run every now and then.
Before discussing the next two topics, keep the following in mind.
According to MLB, the launch angle…
- For a ground ball is less than 10 degrees
- For a line drive, it’s 10-25 degrees
- For a flyball, it’s 25-50 degrees
- Anything above 50 degrees is a popup
The Barrel % (eight to 50 degrees) uses a wider range for launch angle compared to the Sweet Spot % (eight to 32 degrees).
The Barrel % uses an exit velocity of 98 mph or higher, whereas the Sweet Spot % goes from 95 mph and up.
Since most home runs take the form of fly balls and favor a higher EV, a hitter’s Barrel % is often associated with HR compared to the Sweet Spot %. Conversely, SwSp% tends to do a better job of measuring the impact of line drives and ground balls.
Moving on…
France’s barrel rate stands at 8.5% per batted ball. This currently ranks in the 41st percentile as slightly below average.
Lastly, his Sweet Spot rate stands at 31.7%. Although there is no corresponding percentile rank, compare it to Gerrit Cole (34.1 %) and Zac Gallen (40.1%) thus far. Other honorable mentions include Shohei Ohtani (34.0%), Marcus Stroman (27.9%), and Shane McClanahan (34.5%) this year.
It’s not surprising then to see a correlation between France’s high 1.5 HR/9 and lackluster barrel rate. Although not every barreled ball is a home run, many fall into this category.
On the flip side, his Sweet Spot % is much better as he’s limited a fair amount of hard contact from line drives and ground balls.
Walks
France averages three walks per nine innings. Yet, that number may be lower at times since starting pitchers tend to go five-plus innings without finishing the game. Moreover, in eight starts this year, he’s only walked 16 out of 197 batters faced, compiling an 8% BB. In terms of throwing strikes, out of 731 pitches, he’s thrown about half of them in the zone.
WHIP
The average WHIP is around 1.30. France’s WHIP is slightly better, at 1.20 in eight games. Since he doesn’t walk a lot of batters, most of the damage comes from base hits.
Leading Off The Inning
This measures how many times a pitcher, on average, gets the lead-off out in an inning. For example, France produced a .152/.204/.465 line in eight starts (Baseball Reference). On average, then, he’s retired four out of five batters leading off the inning (including walks and hit-by-pitch). While this pace probably won’t last, a .204 OBP against hitters is impressive nonetheless.
Aside from taking some pressure off the pitcher, getting the lead-off out in an inning usually puts the double play in order with runners on base. As a result, pitchers can now get out of many tough situations with a ground ball.
RISP
With runners in scoring position, France held opponents to a .214/.273/.429 line in eight starts. So roughly one out of five players had a hit against him.
Similarly, with runners in scoring position and two outs, France held opponents to a .200/.294/.400 line.
Evidently, J.P. France does a good job preventing and minimizing damage, for the time being.
Summary on Astros’ pitcher J.P. France
So far this season, Astros’ pitcher J.P. France relies on control, minimizing walks, and putting the ball in play to get outs. But, it’s not simply about him giving up contact, but reducing hard-hit balls to limit singles and extra-base hits.
Look for IP, BB, W, ERA, and WHIP as his primary means of production. Be wary of HRA and his K rate.
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