Despite a rather disappointing end to the season, Franmil Reyes was a shrewd pick-up. He was never going to turn around the 2022 season, that much was clear, the Chicago Cubs were in too deep a hole at the time of his acquisition, 44-64.
Reyes' time in Chicago during 2022 was a mere tryout. He's going to be paid well in arbitration, approximately $6 million according to MLB Trade Rumors. So if the Cubs bring him back in 2023, they must be confident that he can return to his former level of production.
Last year, split between Cleveland and Chicago, was no doubt the worst of Reyes' career. His OPS+ had never dipped below 112 in a season, including 2022, but barring that year his home run-rate had also never dipped below 5.6%. Both of those standards came crashing down in 2022.
With the Cubs Reyes' OPS was .689 for an OPS+ of 93, but on the season those figures were .603 and 73 respectively.
When a hitter falters so heavily at such a young age, some of their production, or lack thereof, can be attributed to luck, but that wasn't the case for the Cubs' newfound DH. He sports a .313 career BABIP, but his 2022 BABIP held to that trend, sticking at .307, nor did his exit velocity fall dramatically.
Again, for his career Reyes has made contact at 92.6 mph, last year he averaged 92.0 mph. So, besides his home run rate, what gives?
His strikeout-rate was slightly higher the usual and his walk-rate was slightly worse too, but no so much worse to cause such a dramatic drop-off in production.
The most notable thing was Reyes' inability to hit off-speed pitches. In 2021 he did a disproportionate amount of damage on breaking balls and change-ups, but in 2022 his slugged just .321 on breaking pitches and .222 on off-speed pitches. In 2021 Reyes slugged .521 and .446 respectively on those offerings.
In 2021 he hit sliders better than he handled any other pitch, his run value/100 pitches was 2.1, even fastballs, which he has handled well his entire career, he hit for a 1.5 RV/100.
Though he still hit fastballs adequately in 2022, those outlying figures were due to his damage on cutters and sinkers. With the Guardians and Cubs in 2022 he hit sliders and four-seam fastballs for -0.9 and -1.9 RV/100 respectively.
The ability to mash sliders made Reyes' 2021 special, that year he had a career high .846 OPS and 30 homers. But to be a capable Major Leaguer Reyes must rediscover the ability to punish high-speed fastballs.
He had always hit them well, and did so adequately in 2022 according to his slugging, but he needs to rediscover the power stroke he once possessed.
$6 million seems like a small price to pay for 35 homer, .850 OPS potential. The Cubs should absolutely give Reyes another shot in 2023. As the saying goes, 'There's no such thing as a bad one-year deal.'
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