Can Otto Lopez help Blue Jays in 2023?

The Blue Jays Otto Lopez could play an important role for Toronto in 2023

Otto Lopez made his major league debut in 2021. He failed to collect a hit, facing just 6 pitches. He did much better when given a chance in 2023. Lopez faced 36 pitches, putting 8 balls in play. In his 8 games in a Blue Jays uniform, Lopez collected 6 singles while driving in 3RBI and posting a .700 batting average and .599wOBA.

Signed in 2016 out of the Dominican Republic, the speedy Lopez averaged 85.5 exit velocity with a max exit velocity of 102.9. According to Baseball Savant, Lopez found the sweet spot of the bat 37.5% which drove down his impressive BA to a more reasonable .283xBA and .302 xwOBA.

2022 Minor League Numbers

The 5-foot-10 versatile prospect played 91 games with the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons where he posted a triple slash line of .297/.378/.415. Good for a .356wOBA and 114wRC+. He didn’t show much over-the-fence power (.118ISO) connecting on just 3 home runs; however, Otto did collect 19 doubles and 6 triples. On top of his extra-base power, Otto Lopez walked 41 times (10.5BB%) while striking out 61 times (15.6K%).

A .351BABIP may suggest Lopez was lucky in 2023 except his career average BABIP is .347. With 426 minor league games under his belt and a .305/.373/.420 slash, including two batting titles (Low-A in 2019 and Double-A in 2021). In two seasons (134GP) at Triple, Otto owns a .294BA while collecting 27 doubles, 9 triples, and 5HR, I think it safe to assume that Otto Lopez knows how to make contact. For a club that traded away power in favor of run prevention, having a player able to hit for average, extra-base power, and post high on-base would benefit the top and bottom of the lineup.

Speed Factor

The AL league average for stolen bases was 82. The Blue Jays stole 67 bases with George Springer (14SB) and Bo Bichette (13SB) leading the club. I feel confident that Bo could return to the 20-20 club in 2023 but I am less confident in Springer finishing with double-digit stolen bases again…..like ever again. Otto Lopez isn’t going to lead the league in SB, topping stealing 20 bases in 108 games with Lansing in 2019 and stealing 22 bases in 113 games between New Hampshire and Buffalo in 2021. However, his 14SB in 19 attempts with Buffalo in 2022 does suggest that Lopez is capable of matching the totals posted by Springer and Bichette in 2022.

Flexibility

We highlighted his ability to hit, walk, and run but his ability to play multiple positions only increases his value. Over the past two seasons, Otto Lopez has mostly played 2nd base (96GP) but he’s also played LF (41GP), CF (34GP), SS (22GP), and RF (3GP). This would allow John Schneider to give Santiago Espinal, Daulton Varsho, and Kevin Kiemaier a day off.

Espinal Vs Lopez

Otto Lopez would threaten Espinal’s workload. Not by a lot though. Obviously, Espinal has the edge having played all of 2022 at the major league level. Making it less of a guessing game on what to expect in 2023.

But we will proceed.

Both players have shown more success when facing LHP than RHP, so not a great platoon pairing at 2nd base. I would give Espinal a slight edge in the home run department. I feel both players are equal in their ability to hit doubles but the speed aspect of Lopez’s game gives him the added benefit of hitting triples which is not something Espinal has done at the ML level. Throughout his minor career, Lopez (.305BA and 373OBP) has gotten on base more frequently than Santiago (.286BA and.344OBP) giving him a potential edge.

Santiago posted a great OAA in the 96th percentile which should allow him to retain his hold on 2nd base based on the club’s newfound love for run prevention. However, Lopez is no slouch at 2nd base with excellent range and a reliable glove. Both players have average arm strength but I’d give Espinal a slight edge. Lopez has the arm to cover SS but definitely not every day and definitely not at 3rd base.

 Final Thoughts

I see Otto Lopez as an improvement over Ramiel Tapia versus a replacement for Santiago Espinal. Tapia finished the 2022 season with a .265/.292/.380 slash while collecting 20 doubles, 3 triples, and 7HR. Tapia also stole 8 bases in 10 attempts. At the very least, with Lopez’s minor-league track record, he should be able to replicate Tapia’s production at the plate while adding an improved OBP and positional versatility. Lopez should easily cover Tapia’s -5OAA while losing a little in the arm strength department. I’d say that’s a win.