Salary cap deep dive for the Ottawa Senators

Brannstrom established himself as a regular last season but his offensive game, one that made him a first-round pick by Vegas several years ago, hasn’t come around just yet. Additionally, his playing time dipped by over three and a half minutes per game as he went from a part-time spot in the top four to a full-time spot on the bottom pair. 

It’s fair to say that the Sens still see some upside in him as evidenced by this contract but another season like this could have him approaching non-tender territory since he’ll be eligible for salary arbitration. Speculatively, this could be a deal they wind up trying to move to open up cap room.

Signed through 2024-25

D Jakob Chychrun ($4.6M, UFA)
G Anton Forsberg ($2.75M, UFA)
F Claude Giroux ($6.5M, UFA)
D Travis Hamonic ($1.1M, UFA)
F Mark Kastelic ($835K, RFA)

Giroux showed last season that he can still be a top-line player, posting his best showing since the 2018-19 campaign while giving Ottawa a strong return on that first year. He’ll be 37 when his next contract comes due, however, so the expectation will be that he either goes year-to-year at that point or takes a discounted two-year deal as players in his situation often do. 

Kastelic had a limited role last season but was effective on the fourth line, earning himself his first one-way deal in the process. As is the case with Kelly, he’ll need to show a bit more offensively to get past the $1M mark (when he’ll also have arbitration rights) in 2025.

Chychrun came over in a late-season trade from Arizona and really helped to stabilize a relatively inexperienced back end. He hasn’t been able to match his 2020-21 breakout showing offensively with the Coyotes and if that holds up, that will hold back his earnings upside somewhat. Despite that, if he can stay healthy, his next deal could push into the $7M range. 

Hamonic took a sizable cut compared to his previous contract to stay in Ottawa although that was going to happen no matter where he wound up. He’s effective in a limited role and this price point works for the Senators.

Forsberg took a step back last season with his on-ice performance while dealing with injury issues that limited him to just 28 appearances. Now set as the backup after GM Pierre Dorion turned to free agency to shore up his goaltending, that workload might be closer to his new normal. 

It’s a tier below the top backups which is around where he should slot in. He’ll need more years like his 2021-22 showing if he wants to get to upper-end backup money.

Signed through 2025-26

F Mathieu Joseph ($2.95M, UFA)
F Zack MacEwen ($775K, UFA)

Joseph showed lots of promise down the stretch in 2022 when Ottawa acquired him, resulting in this contract. Unfortunately for them, he struggled mightily last season, scoring just three times in 56 games which is hardly what anyone was expecting. This is the contract that the Sens are believed to be trying to move right now although in this cap environment, that’s much easier said than done. 

MacEwen accepted a rare three-year, minimum-salary deal this summer, one that guarantees him a one-way deal throughout. He’s projected to be on the fourth line or as a reserve forward if and when they can carry extra players so it’ll be difficult for them not to get a reasonable return.

Signed through 2026-27 or longer

F Drake Batherson ($4.875M through 2026-27)
D Thomas Chabot ($8M through 2027-28)
G Joonas Korpisalo ($4M through 2027-28)
F Joshua Norris ($7.95M through 2029-30)
D Jake Sanderson ($8.05M from 2024-25 through 2031-32)
F Tim Stutzle ($8.35M through 2030-31)
F Brady Tkachuk ($8.206M through 2027-28)
D Artem Zub ($4.6M through 2026-27)

Over the past few years, Dorion has opted to skip the bridge deals for his core youngsters. Stutzle earned the biggest contract of the group, one that was signed before he went and put up 90 points, more than his first two years combined. 

It looked like it might take a year or two for Ottawa to get positive value under the assumption that Stutzle’s improvement might be a bit slower, an understandable expectation for most youngsters. That’s no longer the case, especially now that he started to see some regular minutes down the middle in 2022-23. As long as he produces close to this level, Ottawa should get a strong return on this contract.

Tkachuk’s contract talks were certainly the most contentious of the bunch and of their ‘core five’, he was the only one not to get eight years, getting seven instead. There’s a power forward premium attached but if he’s able to hover around the point-per-game mark as he did last season, his production will justify the price tag in its own right.

The first year of Norris’ deal didn’t go as planned thanks to a shoulder injury that cost him most of the season. Accordingly, it might take him a couple of years before he can live up to the price tag but assuming he progresses and becomes a consistent impact middleman, they’ll do well with this deal as well. 

Batherson put up nearly a point per game in an injury-shortened 2021-22 campaign but while he wasn’t able to duplicate that level of production over a full season last year, he still set career highs across the board, collecting 62 points. If he maintains that type of scoring, this will become quite a team-friendly deal.

Sanderson’s extension is a freshly signed one, one that is certainly banking on the 21-year-old having another level to get to. He had a strong rookie campaign, one that saw him collect 32 points while logging nearly 22 minutes a night, second only to Chabot. A high first-round pick in 2020 (fifth overall), he’ll be a core cog on their back end for years to come but it might take a year or two for him to start living up to the contract.

Chabot, whose deal is basically the one Sanderson wound up with, was the first Senator to go this route back in 2019. He has become a legitimate number one defenseman although he has battled injuries in each of the last two seasons. Considering that the market for top blueliners is considerably higher than this, Ottawa has gotten a nice bargain on this contract. 

As for Zub, he has just three NHL seasons under his belt but has quickly become an important part of their second pairing. His offensive numbers aren’t the strongest which will make it difficult for him to get into that higher tier of money but if he can play at a similar level as he has the past three seasons, they’ll do fine with this deal.

Buyouts

D Michael Del Zotto ($750K in 2023-24)
F Bobby Ryan ($1.833M in 2023-24)
F Colin White ($875K in 2023-24, cap credit of $625K in 2024-25, $875K from 2025-26 through 2027-28)

Retained salary transactions

G Matt Murray ($1.563M in 2023-24)

Still to sign

F Shane Pinto

Pinto’s situation is well-known at this point. Ineligible for an offer sheet, he’s not a true restricted free agent and Ottawa has a bit more leverage here. Even so, they don’t have enough cap room to make him a fair-market offer. 

A two-year deal around the $2.5M mark is the expectation of where an agreement will get done but they might have to carry a minimum-sized roster and bury a contract in the minors to open up enough room to do a deal like that. A one-year pact could also happen which, from a value perspective, should be closer to the $2M range but even that will be tricky. Dorion will need to find a way to open up some flexibility in the near future.

Best value: Chychrun
Worst value: Joseph

Looking ahead

Pinto’s situation looms large in the immediate term. This is something they need to get done sooner rather than later; Norris’ setback with his shoulder only amplifies that. What they’re able (or not able) to do will dictate what else they can do this season. 

If they can clear out Joseph’s deal entirely and still opt to carry a roster close to the minimum, they might be able to bank a bit of cap room for in-season activity. If not, they’ll need to match money in a trade to add to their roster closer to the trade deadline.

Being tight to the cap ceiling is going to be a regular occurrence for the Sens for the foreseeable future. They already have nearly $74M in commitments for 2024-25 and few teams around the league have more than $45M on the books in 2027-28. 

The contracts they have are good ones (or should be over time) but, barring a big spike in the salary cap, they might be in tough to make too many more core acquisitions beyond replacing their expiring deals.