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Where will the top 30 MLB free agents land?
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Where will the top 30 MLB free agents land?

With the World Series firmly in the rearview mirror, hot stove season is preparing to fire up on all cylinders. Unlike last year's rather lukewarm offerings on the open market, this winter's free agent crop looks to be much more promising. As a result, spending season in the MLB looks like it could have much bigger stakes this time around.

With a trio of top-shelf arms available, including the intriguing onset of Japanese star Shohei Otani, as well as much of the championship core of the Kansas City Royals, there is no shortage of impact presences in play. Who will be the winner of the winter, and who will command the greatest cost? Those questions will all be answered in the upcoming months, and to prep for the action to come, here is a look at the top 30 free agents available, as well as where their final destination could be by the time the spring breaks.

 

30. Andrew Cashner, RHP

Andrew Cashner, RHP
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore rotation was tragically inept in 2017, with Orioles starters producing an MLB-worst 5.70 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and American League-low 846 innings. While Cashner had a strong showing for Rangers, boasting a 3.40 ERA over 28 starts and 166.2 innings, he also had an alarming drop-off in strike out rate, dropping from 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings in 2016 to 4.6 in 2017. But for a team looking to replace upward of three slots in its rotation, Cashner would be a comfortable fit on a two-year deal.

Prediction: Orioles

 

29. Jake McGee, LHP

Jake McGee, LHP
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

McGee is in a great position from a pair of angles. For starters, he’s the top left-handed reliever available this winter, which is always a profitable position to be in. He could also gain some attention as a potential closer, a role that he could regain by staying put in Colorado if Greg Holland departs. Either way, the Rockies are committed to keeping a strong bullpen together and will likely pay handsomely to keep the southpaw on board, regardless of role.

Prediction: Rockies

 

28. Melky Cabrera, OF

Melky Cabrera, OF
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

As things currently stand, the Phillies project to have only one everyday player over the age of 30 in play next season. They are a very young team that needs a bit of veteran presence infused into the mix to help their promising youngsters reach their potential. With 13 years under his belt and a pair of 80+ RBI seasons over the past two years, Cabrera is a good fit from both a production and intangible standpoint.

Prediction: Phillies

 

27. Carlos Gonzalez, OF

Carlos Gonzalez, OF
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

A year removed from an All-Star appearance, CarGo tanked in his last season in Coloradowith his .262/.339/.432 split line — a full-season career worst. He now heads into free agency as an uncertain quantity, as teams will have to decide if his best is behind himor if he is a candidate for a big turnaround season at age 32. The Orioles need to upgrade their corner outfield situation, and adding the veteran on a short-term deal could be a cost-effective way to do so.

Prediction: Orioles

 

26. Anthony Swarzak, RHP

Anthony Swarzak, RHP
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

A year ago, Boston's most glaring need was finding a reliable bridge to Craig Kimbrel. With Addison Reed a free agent and Tyler Thornburg still looking to return from Tommy John surgery, that need has re-emerged. Swarzak is coming off a year in which he posted a 2.33 ERA and 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings for the White Sox and Brewers. On the heels of that breakout campaign, he has terrific value as seventh-inning type with true setup upside in Fenway.

Prediction: Red Sox

 

25. CC Sabathia, LHP

CC Sabathia, LHP
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Sabathia has found a nice late career groove as an experienced, mid-rotation contributor. He reinvented himself as a contact, quality innings eater who can still provide some big-time outings when needed, as he proved in the postseason. The Yankees are still in need of what he can offer their rotation and would likely be happy to have him back for $12 million or so less than he cost last season.

Prediction: Yankees

 

24. Yonder Alonso, 1B

Yonder Alonso, 1B
Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox are all in on upgrading at the dish, and Alonso is a quick fix option to do so. He had a breakout year with 28 home runs and a .501 slugging percentage, both which would have easily led Boston's full-season regulars in 2017. Alonso will not require a long-term commitment, while also filling an immediate sense of need.

Prediction: Red Sox

 

23. Pat Neshek, RHP

Pat Neshek, RHP
Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The increasingly ageless wonder posted his second season of a sub-2.00 ERA in the last four years, with a 1.59 mark in 62.1 innings spent between the Phillies and Rockies. The 37-year-old should see a wide market for his services, since he’ll likely only require a two-year deal and has been a good bet to give a better than compensated for return. Having spent two years with the club from 2015-16, the Astros know the value of having Neshek aboard, and after some rougher scrapes with late-inning situations than they would have liked, reacquiring a security blanket in Neshek would be a worthwhile investment for a title defense effort.

Prediction: Astros

 

22. Brandon Morrow, RHP

Brandon Morrow, RHP
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Although Morrow could have a variety of suitors that could look to cast him in the closer role or perhaps even entertain moving the former starter back to the rotation, there is a strong likelihood that he is made one of the best paid setup men in the game by the Dodgers. He played a tremendous part in delivering leads to Kenley Jansen, and he has stated a desire to stay put.

Prediction: Dodgers

 

21. Addison Reed, RHP

Addison Reed, RHP
Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

Picking up the pace in the bullpen is a priority for the Twins, who doled out much of their ninth inning work to Brandon Kintzler and Matt Belisle. That is a picture that without a doubt could stand to be updated, and the versatile Reed represents the type of diverse option that can fill in multiple roles if needed. Reed has come into his own as a setup man in recent years but also has 125 career saves. If he is in line to move back to the ninth inning, he would fit nicely into Minnesota's pay grade range.

Prediction: Twins

 

20. Jhoulys Chacin, RHP

Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Chacin possesses several desirable traits for a free agent arm: a dependable track record and just about to turn 30. Having thrived in Coors Field, Chase Field and Petco Park, Chacin has also proved to be highly adaptable to his surroundings. He is a perfect fit for a Minnesota team that thrived in spite of its starting staff a year ago, when it finished 10th in the American League in rotation ERA — behind five non-playoff qualifiers. Chacin is a plug-and-play upgrade who could contribute 60 solid starts over the next three years.

Prediction: Twins

 

19. Todd Frazier, 3B

Todd Frazier, 3B
Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports

Third base is as big of an eyesore for the Giants as for any team in baseball. Things got so bad on the hot corner that they had to turn back to the recently released Pablo Sandoval just to keep things moving along. Upgrading at the spot is their biggest concern, and Frazier represents a solid upgrade — one who should come at a manageable price for a team that will be engaged in spending in multiple spots.

Prediction: Giants

 

18. Eduardo Nunez, 3B/SS

Eduardo Nunez, 3B/SS
Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports

After a year of Aledmys Diaz, Matt Carpenter, Jedd Gyorko, Greg Garcia and Paul DeJong all were forced into regular action for a variety of reasons on the left side of the infield, the Cardinals are looking to solidify the scene some in 2018. Nunez is a perfect fit for the club. It would allow St. Louis to take more time to decide if DeJong can stay at shortstop or move him to third base and deploy Nunez at shortstop for the time being. Plus, his 64 stolen bases since 2016 are surely attractive for a team hellbent on getting better on the bases.

Prediction: Cardinals

 

17. Logan Morrison, 1B

Logan Morrison, 1B
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Mariners have long been on the lookout for a suitable upgrade at first base, and while GM Jerry Dipoto has been slow to engage in the free agent market, he may have to make an exception this year. August acquisition Yonder Alonso is on the free agent market, leaving Seattle bare again at the position. On the heels of a 38-homer breakout season, Morrison would be a clear upgrade that would offer the type of offensive punch to join Nelson Cruz at the heart of what would be an impressive everyday offering.

Prediction: Mariners

 

16. Alex Cobb, RHP

Alex Cobb, RHP
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

After an encouraging bounce-back season from Tommy John surgery, Cobb has re-established himself as solid middle-tier option for any club in need of an upgrade on the mound. One such team is the Cubs, who need replacements (or upgrades) in two spots in their rotation. Cobb first cut his teeth in Tampa under the watch of Joe Maddon and new pitching coach Jim Hickey, and a reunion would make a lot of sense.

Prediction: Cubs

 

15. Carlos Gomez, OF

Carlos Gomez, OF
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Despite a step backward in 2017, the Rangers are still in win-now mode, and bringing back Gomez would go a long way toward stabilizing their overall offering. Gomez is essentially an average player now but does enough right to still make a difference, and he is a more consistent performer than Delino DeShields Jr. currently.

Prediction: Rangers

 
Jonathan Lucroy, C
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Although his stock slid during an underwhelming year split between the Rangers and Rockies, Lucroy still stands in as a cut above the rest of the field at catcher. The Rockies are said to be high on retaining his services behind the plate due to his ability to work with their young pitching staff. Aside from bringing back Greg Holland, Lucroy should be the top priority for Colorado this winter.

Prediction: Rockies

 

13. Zack Cozart, SS

Zack Cozart, SS
Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Although Cozart is coming off a career year at the plate and is easily the top shortstop available via free agency, a lengthy stay on the open market could be ahead for Cozart. It is simply due to a matter of timing and fit, as the shortstop position is flush with young and established talents around the league. While the Royals, Rays and Padres could be in play, a return to Cincinnati may end up being the outcome for Cozart in the form of a one- or two-year deal.

Prediction: Reds

 

12. Jay Bruce, OF

Jay Bruce, OF
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Bruce is sitting in the proverbial catbird seat on the open market as one of the top corner outfield bat. In fact, he's only behind a player in J.D. Martinez who is going to command a massive sum for his services. As such, Bruce should be able to cash in on the need that several teams have for a power upgrade but do not have room to add a massive deal to do so. Bruce should have a wide market, but a Toronto team that is moving on from Jose Bautista and still looking to replace the presence of Edwin Encarnacion is a great landing spot.

Prediction: Blue Jays

 

11. Greg Holland, RHP

Greg Holland, RHP
Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

A faulty ninth-inning situation was a major cause for the Cardinals failing to capitalize on a chance to win a wide-open NL Central. As such, a top priority for the club is landing a proven performer in the position and doing so while attempting to avoid reaching a financial extreme. On the heels of a bounce-back season in which he closed out an NL-best 41 games for the Rockies, Holland is a great fit for the Cardinals and should come in at price lower than what Wade Davis will command.

Prediction: Cardinals

 

10. Carlos Santana, 1B/DH

Carlos Santana, 1B/DH
Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Always a dependable and consistent presence at the plate, Santana took big strides forward in the field last season, becoming a Gold Glove finalist at first base. That prowess widened the market for Santana to include National League suitors as well, but his importance to Cleveland is massive. The club should do everything in its power to retain him, keeping Edwin Encarnacion slotted at designated hitter.

Prediction: Indians

 

9. Lance Lynn, RHP

Lance Lynn, RHP
Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports

In recent years, there have been a few notable instances of musical chairs between former Cardinals and Cubs during the offseason. After their surprising rise in the NL Central picture, it could be time for the Brewers to crash the party as well. Milwaukee needs an upgrade atop its rotation, and landing a workhorse in the style of Lynn will fall into the team's price range, while also landing a direct upgrade from a divisional rival.

Prediction: Brewers

 

8. Lorenzo Cain, OF

Lorenzo Cain, OF
Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

Of the three big-ticket Royals on the market, it is rumored that Cain is the least likely to return. If that is indeed true, he’ll be far and away the best free agent centerfielder available. The Giants, Cubs, Mariners and Rangers are counted among the clubs that could look to upgrade the heart of their outfields, and Cain represents an upgrade on multiple levels for all (.300 average and 25+ stolen bases in three of the last four years). It could simply come down to leverage the highest payout, which is something the Giants seem most likely to offer coming out of their most disappointing year since the mid-'80s.

Prediction: Giants

 
Mike Moustakas, 3B
Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

After suffering through a year of Luis Valbuena hitting .199 on the hot corner, the rising Angels are in desperate need of a drastic offensive upgrade at the position. Moustakas is a perfect match for the club, which also needs power from the left-hand side of the plate. As the acquisition and extension of Justin Upton showed, the club is committed to making the most of its window to compete with Mike Trout as a guaranteed part of the team’s picture.

Prediction: Angels

 

6. Wade Davis, RHP

Wade Davis, RHP
Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

After swinging and missing on landing a big-ticket closer last winter, the Nationals were forced to struggle through solidifying their ninth-inning arrangement for much of the summer. Although the acquisitions of Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson eventually eased the pain, there is still room for an upgrade. Davis is easily the best closer available this year and will be widely bid for. Washington GM Mike Rizzo should be locked in gathering a guaranteed back-end option this winter.

Prediction: Nationals

 

5. Eric Hosmer, 1B

Eric Hosmer, 1B
Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

Perhaps the most interesting romp through free agency could be that of Hosmer, who could stand to benefit from some home cooking. He is beloved in Kansas City, and this includes Royals owner David Glass, who does not want to disappoint his fully bloomed fan base by letting all of the free agent stars walk. It is a situation where Hosmer’s value to K.C. is much greater than it is anywhere else, the team may be willing to bet against itself some to keep him aboard — and keep butts in the seats of Kauffman Stadium.

Prediction: Royals

 

4. Shohei Otani, RHP

Shohei Otani, RHP
Masterpress-Getty Images

The most intriguing presence on the open market is the two-way Japanese star, who recently was given the go-ahead to be posted for bids this winter. Although he boasts exciting potential with the bat, his greatest upside is on the mound, and that is where he ultimately profiles as a No. 1 or No. 2 caliber arm for a pennant-contending club. While the 23-year-old will have a massive amount of suitors (with the Yankees likely to make a big play for his services), Texas could be his ultimate destination due to the fact the Rangers have the most international signing pool available.

Prediction: Rangers

 

3. J.D. Martinez, OF

J.D. Martinez, OF
Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports

The Red Sox are never shy about making a big splash in hot stove season, and it should be assumed they are prepping to do so again. After a second straight underwhelming postseason showing and finishing last in the American League in home runs, Boston is in clear need of a jolt at the heart of the lineup. Martinez, who hit 45 home runs in 2017 and 128 in the last four years, is the perfect fit. He won’t come cheap, but there is no other bat close to being able to offer the type of pop he does on the open market. Expect a blow-away offer to come his way from the AL East champs as they try to get over the hump of the Division Series in 2018.

Prediction: Red Sox

 

2. Jake Arrieta, RHP

Jake Arrieta, RHP
Jim Young-USA TODAY Sports

If Arrieta was touching the market after his phenomenal Cy Young season of 2015, he would top this list. But due to the nature of the (at times) up and down performance he has displayed over the past two years and the fact he is entering his age 32 season, he’ll have to "settle" for a slightly lesser deal in length that will still reward him handsomely into his late 30s. He would be a great fit for a Texas team that has grown accustomed to having a pair of aces in its deck and has the money (and need) to bolster its rotation with a native son.

Prediction: Rangers

 

1. Yu Darvish, RHP

Yu Darvish, RHP
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

World Series disappointments aside, recency bias should not have a place at the table in considering why Darvish is easily be the top prize up for bid this winter. He had proved to be completely back from Tommy John surgery and has thrived in both leagues since, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings after arriving in L.A. Expecting Darvish to arrive and make the type of impact that absolute aces in the Kershaw, Sale or Scherzer mold is mismanaged expectations. Instead, he is a top-shelf No. 2 starter who can help raise a rotation from good to great. To that point, he’ll fit in perfectly in Chicago. The Cubs have a great ensemble in place already, and he can carry some of the heavy lifting with an aging Jon Lester and maturing Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs have the dough and are a natural match for Darvish.

Prediction: Cubs

Matt Whitener is St. Louis-based writer, radio host and 12-6 curveball enthusiast. He has been covering Major League Baseball since 2010, and dabbles in WWE, NBA and other odd jobs as well. Follow Matt on Twitter at @CheapSeatFan.

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