Originally posted on Celtics Green ...a boston celtics blog.  |  Last updated 7/5/13
Don’t expect major moves July 11th but before preseason Ainge will make a number (maybe a lot) of minor/moderate moves to both consolidate the roster and lower salary.  I’ve been driving myself to distraction looking at the roster and moves of other teams to assess who might need a power forward or shooting guard—no more.  I’m going to wait for a week and let the free agent craziness settle down.  Then I’ll see if I can guess what moves Danny might have up his sleeves (although if his coaching hire is any indicator, I’ll be off by a wide margin.) As I contemplate who might go and who might stay, there are several factors to consider.  What we don’t, and probably won’t know, is whether the Celtics will go all in on player development.  It also remains to be seen whether Rondo and/or Sullinger are ready to go from the start.  What we can look at is where there are duplications, which vets are unlikely to be here for the next title run, and which salaries moved will assure that the Celtics remain below the Luxury Cap. Below are the Presumed roster players and salaries following the trade July teenth and the signing of the rookies: Player_____2013-14____2014-15______2015-16 Rondo_______11.95______12.91 Green________8.97_______9.45________9.45 Bass_________ 6.45_______6.90 Lee__________5.23_______ 5.45________5.68 Bradley_______2.51_______ 3.58(Q) Sullinger______1.37_______ 1.42(T)_____ 2.27(T) Melo_________1.31________1.37(T)_____ 2.25(T) Crawford______2.16________3.21(Q) Randolph______1.11(NG) White_________1.03(NG) Humphries____12.00 Wallace______ 10.11_______10.11_______ 10.11 Bogans_______~3.20________3.20(T)______3.20(T) (estimate) Brooks________ 1.21________2.18(T)______3.20(Q) Olynyk________ 1.66________1.73________ 1.80 (all likely +20%) Iverson________ 0.47________0.79(T)______0.79(T)   (estimate from similar 2012) Pressey________ 0.47(NG)  estimate Jones__________0.47(NG)  estimate Total_________$71.58M  (and I think we can assume it will be under $70M by Nov. 1) And where they might play: PG  Rondo, Bogans, Pressey, Jones SG  Bradley, Lee, Crawford, Brooks SF  Green, Wallace PF  Sullinger, Olynyk, Humphries, Bass, White, Randolph C _ Melo, Iverson Now Wallace had an abysmal year but it was an outlier by a wide margin over his career performance.  I do not expect him to be moved before January as Danny will give him a chance to play his way back into value.  The four non-guaranteed contracts (White, Randolph, Pressey, and Jones) offer a quick way to pare the roster below fifteen and the money below $69M, but that is way too simple.  The Orlando Summer team of the Celtics has some interesting aspects including six players from overseas (but none from the Chinese pu-pu platter picked up at mid-season).  Pressey or Jones may be gone at the end of the Orlando Summer League (July 12).  In fact Jones is not even on the Celtics roster for Orlando—instead we see Nolan Smith and Jayson Granger joining Phil Pressey as point guards.  Notably neither Randolph nor White is on the Summer League roster—instead we see two Israeli League players at power forward (Eli Holman and Lawrence Hill).  Other thoughts:  -The only way Mo-Mo Jones even makes it to training camp is if Rondo is not ready to go, Bogans has his bags already packed, Terrence Williams doesn’t extricate himself from legal trouble and resign, and neither Nolan Smith nor Jayson Granger impresses this week. -The non-guaranteed contracts of White and Randolph may be most valuable as cap clearers for the Dwight circus.  -White is gone by camp and Randolph’s presence depends on some combination of Melo needing another year in Maine, Sullinger not being ready by October, and only one of Bass and Humphries being moved. -I would be surprised but not astonished to see White, Randolph, Jones, Bass, Humphries, Crawford, Brooks, Bogans, and Lee all moved before December.  And Wallace moved at the deadline.  That’s more than half the roster and pretty extreme, but ask yourself this question—How many of them would be core players in a playoff run in 2015?  The only youngsters are Crawford and Brooks, and I readily admit I am not a fan of either. -Ainge has hired a teaching coach; and I think he’s going to provide an appropriate and hungry student class. -Maybe by next week (and after the free-agent feeding frenzy) I can pull together some ideas about where these players might fit (and what kind of return they might bring). [Discuss on CG Forums!]
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